1480-1940年广东地区气候干湿变化与旱涝灾害区域分异特征

1 IntroductionThe natural disasters, especially the flood and drought disasters, have occurred frequently inG uangdong area since ancienttim es.A ccording to historic statisticaldata,since the 17th century,the occurrence of the flood and drought disasters…     

A chironomid-based reconstruction of summer temperatures in NW Iceland since AD 1650

Few studies currently exist that aim to validate a proxy chironomid-temperature reconstruction with instrumental temperature measurements. We used a reconstruction from a chironomid percentage abundance data set to produce quantitative summer temperature estimates since AD 1650 for NW Iceland through a transfer function approach, and validated the record against instrumental temperature measurements from Stykkishólmur in western Iceland. The core was dated through Pb-210, Cs-137 and tephra analyses (Hekla 1693) which produced a well-constrained dating model across the whole study period. Little catchment disturbance, as shown through geochemical (Itrax) and loss-on-ignition data, throughout the period further reinforce the premise that the chironomids were responding to temperature and not other catchment or within-lake variables. Particularly cold phases were identified between AD 1683–1710, AD 1765–1780 and AD 1890–1917, with relative drops in summer temperatures in the order of 1.5–2°C. The timing of these cold phases agree well with other evidence of cooler temperatures, notably increased extent of Little Ice Age (LIA) glaciers. Our evidence suggests that the magnitude of summer temperature cooling (1.5–2°C) was enough to force LIA Icelandic glaciers into their maximum Holocene extent, which is in accordance with previous modelling experiments for an Icelandic ice cap (Langjökull).     

中纬度亚洲现代间冰期气候变化的“西风模式”讨论

中纬度亚洲地区存在主要受季风环流影响的东南部湿润地区(简称季风区)和主要受西风环流控制的内陆干旱区(包括青藏高原北部高寒干旱区,简称西风区)。根据对近年来新发表的气候变化记录证据梳理总结,发现西风区在中—晚全新世气候湿润,与亚洲季风在早—中全新世强盛的格局显著不同。过去千年的西风区中世纪暖期干旱,而小冰期相对湿润,与此相对,万象洞石笋氧同位素记录则显示季风降水在中世纪暖期时整体处于高值,在小冰期处于低值段。在近百年,尤其是近50a,西北干旱区湿度增加,而季风影响范围内的西北东部和华北等地变得更干。不仅如此,在分属西风和季风影响区的青藏高原北部和南部,年代际—百年尺度上降水变化也表现出反相位关系。据此我们提出,亚洲中部西风带控制区在现代间冰期从数千年到年代际的各个时间尺度上均存在不同于季风区的湿度(降水)变化模式,称之为现代间冰期气候变化的西风模式。     

Evolution of permafrost in Northeast China since the Late Pleistocene

In Northeast China, permafrost advanced and retreated several times under the influences of fluctuating paleo-climates and paleo-environments since the Late Pleistocene. During the last 60 years, many new data were obtained and studies were conducted on the evolution of permafrost in Northeast China, but so far no systematic summary and review have been made. Based on sedimentary sequences, remains of past permafrost, paleo-flora and-fauna records, and dating data, permafrost evolution since the Late Pleistocene has been analyzed and reconstructed in this paper. Paleo-temperatures reconstructed from the remains of past permafrost and those from paleo-flora and-fauna are compared, and thus the southern limit of permafrost(SLP) in each climate period is inferred by the relationship of the permafrost distribution and the mean annual air/ground temperatures(MAAT/MAGT). Thus, the evolutionary history of permafrost is here divided into five stages:(1) the Late Pleistocene(Last Glaciation, or LG)(65 to 10–8.5 ka), the Last Glaciation Maximum(LGM, 21–13 ka) in particular, the coldest period in the latest history with a cooling of about 6~10 ?C, characterized by extensive occurrences of glaciation, flourishing Mammathas-Coelodonta Faunal Complex(MCFC), widespread aeolian deposits, and significant sea level lowering, and permafrost greatly expanded southwards almost to the coastal plains(37?N–41?N);(2) the Holocene Megathermal Period(HMP, 8.5–7.0 to 4.0–3.0 ka), 3~5 ?C warmer than today, permafrost retreated to about 52°N;(3) the Late Holocene Cold Period(Neoglaciation)(4.0–3.0 to 1.0–0.5 ka), a cooling of 1~3 ?C, some earlier thawed permafrost was refrozen or attached, and the SLP invaded southwards to 46?N;(4) the Little Ice Age(LIA, 500 to 100–150 a), the latest cold period with significant permafrost expansion; and(5) climate warming since the last century, during which Northeast China has undergone extensive permafrost degradation. The frequent and substantial expansions and retreats of permafrost have greatly impacted cold-region environments in Northeast China. North of the SLP during the HMP, or in the present continuous permafrost zone, the existing permafrost was largely formed during the LG and was later overlapped by the permafrost formed in the Neoglaciation. To the south, it was formed in the Neoglaciation. However, many aspects of permafrost evolution still await further investigations, such as data integration, numerical reconstruction, and merging of Chinese permafrost history with those of bordering regions as well as collaboration with related disciplines. Of these, studieson the evolution and degradation of permafrost during the past 150 years and its hydrological, ecological, and environmental impacts should be prioritized.     

Late Holocene coastal sand movements in the Outer Hebrides, N.W. Scotland

Lithostratigraphical and biostratigraphical investigation of coastal marshes along the Atlantic coast of the Outer Hebrides from Lewis in the north to Barra in the south discloses inland-tapering sand units within marshland areas. The inland extent of each sand unit has been radiometrically dated and the units have been collectively interpreted as a proxy for past coastal storminess. The data appear to indicate that for the study sites investigated, the majority of the sand units were produced during episodes of climate deterioration both prior to and after the well-known period of Medieval warmth (MWP). Many were produced after ca. AD 1400. It is argued that the episodes of sand blow indicated by the deposits may reflect periods of increased cyclogenesis in the Atlantic associated with increased sea ice cover and an increase in the thermal gradient across the North Atlantic region.     

Recalibration of the yellow Rhizocarpon growth curve in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) and implications for LIA chronology

A new lichen dating method and new moraine observations enabled us to improve the chronology of glacier advances in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) during the Little Ice Age (LIA). Our results reveal that an early LIA glacial advance occurred around AD 1330 ± 29. However, a second major glacial advance at the beginning of the 17th century overlapped the earlier stage for most glaciers. Hence, this second glacial stage, dated from AD 1630 ± 27, is considered as the LIA maximum glacial advance in the Cordillera Blanca. During the 17th–18th centuries, at least three glacial advances were recorded synchronously for the different glaciers (AD 1670 ± 24, 1730 ± 21, and 1760 ± 19). The moraines corresponding to the two first stages are close to the one in 1630 suggesting a slow recession of about 18% in the total length of the glacier. From the LIA maximum extent to the beginning of the 20th century, the 24 glaciers have retreated a distance of about 1000 m, corresponding to a reduction of 30% in their length. This rate is comparable to that observed during the 20th century. Estimates of palaeo-Equilibrium Line Altitudes show an increase in altitude of about 100 m from the LIA maximum glacial extension at the beginning of the 17th century to the beginning of the 20th century. Because long time series are not available for precipitation and temperature, this glacial retreat is difficult to explain by past climate changes. However, there is a fair correspondence between changes in glacier length and the δ¹⁸O recorded in the Quelccaya ice core at a century timescale. Our current knowledge of tropical glaciers and isotope variations leads us to suggest that this common tropical signal reflects a change from a wet LIA to the drier conditions of today. Finally, a remarkable synchronicity is observed with glacial variations in Bolivia, suggesting a common regional climatic pattern during the LIA.     

Paleotemperature variations at Lake Caohai,southwestern China,during the past 500 years:Evidence from combined δ~(18)O analysis of cellulose and carbonates

The oxygen isotopic values of aquatic plant cellulose and carbonates in Lake Caohai sediments were measured using a continuous flow isotopic ratio mass spectrometer(CF-IRMS).Because of predictable oxygen isotopic fractionation between cellulose and its source water,the oxygen isotopic composition of paleo-lake water has been established quantitatively.Combined oxygen isotopic values of cellulose and carbonates were used in the‘Craig’equation to determine paleotemperatures and their variation in the lake during the past 500 years.Results show that the paleotemperature trend correlates well with meteorological records from Weining.There are four notable cold intervals at Lake Caohai over the past 500 years,namely 1540–1570AD,1670–1715AD,1780–1870AD and 1900–1930AD,and the former three cold intervals have been observed in the conventional Little Ice Age(LIA).These cold periods at Lake Caohai correspond well with those recorded from tree ring,peat,and ice core data from adjacent regions,particularly temperature those inferred fromδ18O of peat cellulose from Hongyuan Southwestern China.The trend in paleotemperature variations at Lake Caohai are also consistent with both the change of Indian summer monsoon,derived fromδ18O values of a stalagmite in Dongge,and a recorded shift in solar activity.The findings of this study illustrate that coupled analysis ofδ18O values of cellulose and carbonates from lake sediments may be used as a paleotemperature proxy.These results also provide further evidence of the existence of LIA in southwestern China.     

艾比湖二千余年来环境演变的地球化学记录

通过对新疆艾比湖Ash孔二千余年以来沉积的总有机碳含量及其碳同位素、碳酸盐含量及Mg／Ca比值等环境指标综合分析,数据显示：约在公元前500-400年,艾比湖水体面积较小,对应的气候偏干。约公元前400～公元1400年,水体面积较大,处于高水位时期,气候较为湿润,但此时期内的气候也有小幅的冷暖和干湿变化。其中在公元800-1300年期间艾比湖沉积记录显示水生生物对沉积有机质的贡献达到最大,而陆源有机质输入不明显,表明此时湖水水位可能达到二千余年来的最高,这一时段基本对应于中世纪暖期。从碳酸盐含量及Mg/Ca比值指标来看,该地区中世纪暖期可能有一个干湿的波动。公元1400年以来,艾比湖水位下降,其中在15世纪中和19世纪初是两次较为干燥的时期,与其他地区的小冰期气候相对应。     

Quantitative estimates of temperature and precipitation changes over the last millennium from pollen and lake-level data at Lake Joux, Swiss Jura Mountains

This paper presents quantitative climate estimates for the last millennium, using a multi-proxy approach with pollen and lake-level data from Lake Joux (Swiss Jura Mountains). The climate reconstruction, based on the Modern Analogue Technique, indicates warmer and drier conditions during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). MWP was preceded by a short-lived cold humid event around AD 1060, and followed by a rapid return around AD 1400 to cooler and wetter conditions which generally characterize the Little Ice Age (LIA). Around AD 1450 (solar Spörer minimum), the LIA attained a temperature minimum and a summer precipitation maximum. The solar Maunder minimum around AD 1690 corresponded at Joux to rather mild temperatures but maximal annual precipitation. These results generally agree with other records from neighbouring Alpine regions. However, there are differences in the timing of the LIA temperature minimum depending on the proxy and/or the method used for the reconstruction. As a working hypothesis, the hydrological signal associated with the MWP and LIA oscillations at Lake Joux may have been mainly driven by a shift around AD 1400 from positive to negative NAO modes in response to variations in solar irradiance possibly coupled with changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.     

Dryness-wetness change and regional differentiation of flood-drought disasters in Guangdong during 1480-1940AD

Based on the historical records of the drought and flood disasters during 1480-1940AD, this paper reconstructs the sequences of wetness index (WI) and drought and flood disasters. We find a good identical relationship between the fluctuation of WI sequence and the δ18O record of the GISP2 ice core in Greenland, which shows an apparent monsoonal disposal pattern of moisture and temperature. By applying the Morlet Wavelet Transform Method to deal with the data, several apparent periodicities, such as 7-8a, 11-15a, 20-23a and ca 50a, are revealed, among which some can be attributed to the solar forcing. Based on results of Cluster Analysis of dry-wet changes, we resume the regional differentiation pattern of flood-drought disasters all over Guangdong during different climatic intervals in the LIA and, find the western and northern parts of Guangdong have undergone drastic changes in drought-flood regional differentiation, but the eastern part is relatively stable, and the area of the Pearl River Delta shows stable condition of more flood disasters.