桐柏县固庙—新集1：20万金银异常评价方法及效果

随着河南区域化探扫面工作的结束，异常评价是摆在我们面前的当务之急。近年来，随着地质工作的不断深入，我们在异常评价程序及方法上作了一些探索，下面以桐柏县固庙—新集１：２０万金银异常评价方法及效果为例，重点加以讨论。     

Estimating potential landslide sites of an upland sub-watershed in Western Ghat’s of Kerala (India) through frequency ratio and GIS

The purpose of this study is to assess the susceptibility of landslides in parts of Western Ghats, Kerala, India, using a geographical information system (GIS). Landslide inventory of the area was made by detailed field surveys and the analysis of the topographical maps. The landslide triggering factors are considered to be slope angle, slope aspect, slope curvature, slope length, distance from drainage, distance from lineaments, lithology, land use and geomorphology. ArcGIS version 8.3 was used to manipulate and analyse all the collected data. Probabilistic-likelihood ratio was used to create a landslide susceptibility map for the study area. The result was validated using the Area under Curve (AUC) method and temporal data of landslide occurrences. The validation results showed satisfactory agreement between the susceptibility map and the existing data on landslide locations. As the result, the success rate of the model was (84.46%) and the prediction rate of the model was (82.38%) shows high prediction accuracy. In the reclassified final landslide susceptibility zone map, 5.68% of the total area is classified as critical in nature. The landslide susceptibility map thus produced can be used to reduce hazards associated with landslides and to land cover planning.     

Evaluation of approaches to calculate debris-flow parameters for hazard assessment

Many different runout prediction methods can be applied to estimate the mobility of future debris flows during hazard assessment. The present article reviews the empirical, analytical, simple flow routing and numerical techniques. All these techniques were applied to back-calculate a debris flow, which occurred in 1982 at La Guingueta catchment, in the Eastern Pyrenees. A sensitivity analysis of input parameters was carried out, while special attention was paid to the influence of rheological parameters. We used the Voellmy fluid rheology for our analytical and numerical modelling, since this flow resistance law coincided best with field observations. The simulation results indicated that the “basal” friction coefficients rather affect the runout distance, while the “turbulence” terms mainly influence flow velocity. A comparison of the velocity computed on the fan showed that the analytical model calculated values similar to the numerical ones. The values of our rheological parameters calibrated at La Guingueta agree with data back-calculated for other debris flows. Empirical relationships represent another method to estimate total runout distance. The results confirmed that they contain an important uncertainty and they are strictly valid only for the conditions, which were the basis for their development. With regards to the simple flow routing algorithm, this methods could satisfactorily simulate the total area affected by the 1982 debris flow, but it was not able to directly calculate total runout distance and velocity. Finally, a suggestion on how different runout prediction methods can be applied to generate debris-flow hazard maps is presented. Taking into account the definition of hazard and intensity, the best choice would be to divide the resulting hazard maps into two types: “final hazard maps” and “preliminary hazard maps”. Only the use of numerical models provided final hazard maps, because they could incorporate different event magnitudes and they supplied output-values for intensity calculation. In contrast, empirical relationships and flow routing algorithms, or a combination of both, could be applied to create preliminary hazard maps. The present study only focussed on runout prediction methods. Other necessary tasks to complete the hazard assessment can be looked up in the “Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning” included in this Special Issue.     

Risk assessment strategies for the reactivation of earth flows in the Northern Apennines (Italy)

The aim of this paper is to analyze the reactivation mechanism of ancient earth flows, with a view to gleaning information that can subsequently be utilized to formulate a risk-reduction strategy. All considerations made herein are the result of direct experience and observation of actual events which have occurred over the past few decades in the Northern Apennines. Particular attention has been paid to the analysis of the evolution of landslides during actual reactivation, acknowledging a typical, recurring succession of events that precede the failure of the slope. The hazard assessment of these large landslide bodies, which are of slope scale, constitutes a thorny problem, especially in view of the inapplicability of traditional deterministic models such as limit equilibrium stability analysis. Nevertheless, a site-specific assessment of probability of reactivation of these large and ancient earth flows is fundamental to effective land-use planning.     

Landslide susceptibility and hazard mapping in Australia for land-use planning — with reference to challenges in metropolitan suburbia

This paper provides an overview of the history and current status of landslide susceptibility and hazard mapping for land-use zoning in Australia. It also describes a case study of landslide hazard mapping in a medium density, coastal, suburban residential area of metropolitan Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, with relatively steep terrain. Issues covered include identification and mapping of existing and potential landslides, and susceptibility and hazard zoning for regulatory management and land-use planning. The method involves application of the principles contained within the AGS (2000) guideline, and as updated by the AGS (2007 a,b,c,d,e) suite of guidelines.     

Development and morphometry of sinkholes in coastal plains of Apulia, southern Italy. Preliminary sinkhole susceptibility assessment

Evolution of coastlines in karst areas may be strongly controlled by dissolution processes which favour the development of surface and subsurface landforms. The generation of caves in these environments is commonly favoured by the mixing between fresh and brackish waters. The sinkholes resulting from the upward propagation of the caves may interfere with the anthropogenic environment and cause damage to human elements (property and activities). To highlight the often underestimated importance of karst phenomena in coastal areas, we have analyzed a coastal stretch of Apulia, in southern Italy. The study area, covering an extension of about 6 km², is situated in the Ionian coast, and presents several interesting karst landforms that are generally connected to caves. Tens of sinkholes were mapped through field surveys, multi-year aerial-photographs (dating back to the 1940s) and archival research. We have performed a morphometric analysis of the sinkholes. The analysis describes the main parameters of the sinkholes (area, length, width, and depth), and the control exerted by the main discontinuity systems in the area. The detrimental effects derived from interaction between human environment and these karst landforms is also under consideration. A sinkhole susceptibility map, which may provide useful information for planners, developers and the insurance industry has eventually been produced through application of a decision tree model.     

National flood discharge mapping in Austria

This article presents the approach and the results of a study in which 30, 100 and 200 year return period flood discharges were estimated for 26,000 km of Austrian streams. Three guiding principles were adopted: combination of automatic methods and manual assessments by hydrologists to allow speedy processing and account for the local hydrological situation; combination of various sources of information including flood peak samples, rainfall data, runoff coefficients and historical flood data; and involvement of the Hydrographic Services to increase the accuracy and enhance the acceptance of results. The flood discharges for ungauged catchments were estimated by the Top-kriging approach with manual adjustment to the local flood characteristics. The adopted combination approach proved to be very efficient both in terms of the project time required and in terms of the accuracy and acceptability of the estimated flood discharges of given return periods.     

庵东浅滩沉积分带和沉积速率

杭州湾南岸的庵东浅滩具有地貌特征、沉积类型和沉积构造各异的三个沉积相带。垂向沉积带为潮滩沉积体的盖层,以泥滩、粘土质粉砂和薄砂泥交互层为特征;改造带位于中低潮位线附近,以粉砂滩、潮沟系统、粉砂沉积和沙波层理为特征;横向沉积带为潮滩堆积体的基础,以滩坡、粉砂及细砂质粉砂沉积、冲刷-充填构造为特征。据潮汐韵律层的统计,庵东浅滩沉积速率的短周期分量,常态条件下为每半日潮周期0.1～2.0cm,异常条件下可达每半日潮周期4～64cm。沉积速率的长周期分量,据地形对比和~(210)Pb推算,垂向沉积带为2～4.5cm/a;改造带中的粉砂滩为2.1～4.5cm/a,潮沟影响范围内为1～10~1cm/a量级;横向沉积带则以高于50cm/a的高沉积速率和变幅为主。近10年来,该浅滩的年淤积量为6×10~7t/a,其中85％集中于横向沉积带。     

Integrating Uncertainty Theories with GIS for Modeling Coastal Hazards of Climate Change

Prediction of coastal hazards due to climate change is fraught with uncertainty that stems from complexity of coastal systems, estimation of sea level rise, and limitation of available data. In-depth research on coastal modeling is hampered by lack of techniques for handling uncertainty, and the available commercial geographical information systems (GIS) packages have only limited capability of handling uncertain information. Therefore, integrating uncertainty theory with GIS is of practical and theoretical significance. This article presents a GIS-based model that integrates an existing predictive model using a differential approach, random simulation, and fuzzy set theory for predicting geomorphic hazards subject to uncertainty. Coastal hazard is modeled as the combined effects of sea-level induced recession and storm erosion, using grid modeling techniques. The method is described with a case study of Fingal Bay Beach, SE Australia, for which predicted responses to an IPCC standard sea-level rise of 0.86 m and superimposed storm erosion averaged 12 m and 90 m, respectively, with analysis of uncertainty yielding maximum of 52 m and 120 m, respectively. Paradoxically, output uncertainty reduces slightly with simulated increase in random error in the digital elevation model (DEM). This trend implies that the magnitude of modeled uncertainty is not necessarily increased with the uncertainties in the input parameters. Built as a generic tool, the model can be used not only to predict different scenarios of coastal hazard under uncertainties for coastal management, but is also applicable to other fields that involve predictive modeling under uncertainty.     

Changes in soils and vegetation in a Mediterranean coastal salt marsh impacted by human activities

This paper reports changes in vegetation distribution and species cover in relation to soil factors and hydrology in a semiarid Mediterranean salt marsh adjacent to the Mar Menor saline lagoon. Species cover, soil salinity, and the groundwater level were monitored between 1991 and 1993 and between 2002 and 2004, and total organic carbon, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, nitrates, ammonium and exchangeable phosphorus were measured in the soils in both study periods. In addition, three soil profiles were described in August 1992 and August 2004. The results indicate an elevation of the water table throughout the 13-year period, which was attributable to water flowing from areas with intensive agriculture. Flooding increased and soil salinity dropped in the most saline sites and increased in the least saline ones. The morphology of the soil profiles reflected the increase in flooding periods, due to the appearance of a greyer matrix in the deeper horizons and a more diffuse pattern of Fe mottles. Following these environmental changes, Sarcocornia fruticosa, Phragmites australis and Juncus maritimus strongly expanded at the wettest sites, which led to the disappearance of the original zonation pattern. The cover of Limonium delicatulum, in turn, decreased with the increase in moisture but increased following the increase in salinity. Changes in soil nutrients were only very evident in the sandy soils of the beach, probably due to the influence of organic debris deposited on the shoreline by the storms and due to the strong increase in the colonisation of this habitat by perennial species. According to the results obtained, control measures are needed in order to preserve habitat diversity in this and other salt marshes of this area. Monitoring of the vegetation distribution could be a useful tool to identify environmental impacts, in order to implement remedial actions.