Stochastic modelling of groundwater flow and solute transport in aquifers

This paper presents an introductory overview of recently developed stochastic theories for tackling spatial variability problems in predicting groundwater flow and solute transport. Advantages and limitations of the theories are discussed. Lastly, strategies based on the stochastic approaches to predict solute transport in aquifers are recommended.     

Reliability assessment of granular filters in embankment dams

Empirical criteria have been used successfully to design filters of most embankment large dam projects throughout the world. However, these empirical rules are only applicable to a particular range of soils tested in laboratory and do not take into account the variability of the base material and filter particle sizes. In addition, it is widely accepted that the safety of fill dams is mainly dependent on the reliability of their filter performance. The work herein presented consists in a new general method for assessing the probability of fulfilling any empirical filter design criteria accounting for base and filter heterogeneity by means of first‐order reliability methods (FORM), so that reliability indexes and probabilities of fulfilling any particular criteria are obtained. This method will allow engineers to estimate the safety of existing filters in terms of probability of fulfilling their design criteria and might also be used as a decision tool on sampling needs and material size tolerances during construction. In addition, sensitivity analysis makes possible to analyse how reliabilities are influenced by different sources of input data. Finally, in case of a portfolio risk assessment, this method will allow engineers to compare the safety of several existing dams in order to prioritize safety investments and it is expected to be a very useful tool to evaluate probabilities of failure due to internal erosion. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

WEKU – a GIS-Supported stochastic model of groundwater residence times in upper aquifers for the supraregional groundwater management

 The supraregional GIS-supported stochastical model, WEKU, for the determination of groundwater residence times in the upper aquifers of large groundwater provinces is presented. Using a two-dimensional analytical model of groundwater flow, groundwater residence times are determined within two extreme cases. In the first case, maximal groundwater residence times are calculated, representing the part of groundwater, that is drained by the main surface water of a groundwater catchment area. In the second case, minimal groundwater residence times for drainage into the nearest surface water are determined. Using explicit distribution functions of the input parameters, mean values as well as potential ranges of variations of the groundwater residence times are derived. The WEKU model has been used for the determination of groundwater residence times throughout Germany. The model results – mean values and deviations of the groundwater velocity and the maximal and minimal groundwater residence times in the upper aquifers – are presented by general maps and discussed in detail. It is shown that the groundwater residence times in the upper aquifer vary regionally, differentiated between less than 1 year and more than 2000 years. Using this information, the time scales can be specified, until measures to remediate polluted groundwater resources may lead to a substantial groundwater quality improvement in the different groundwater provinces of Germany. With respect to its supraregional scale of application, the WEKU model may serve as a useful tool for the supraregional groundwater management on a state, federal or international level. Received: 15 August 1995 · Accepted: 15 October 1995     

Methodology for preliminary assessment of Natech risk in urban areas

Concern for natural hazard-triggered technological disasters (Natech disasters) in densely populated and industrialized areas is growing. Residents living in urban areas subject to high natural hazard risk are often unaware of the potential for secondary disasters such as hazardous materials releases from neighboring industrial facilities, chemical storage warehouses or other establishments housing hazardous materials. Lessons from previous disasters, such as the Natech disaster during the Kocaeli earthquake in Turkey in 1999 call for the need to manage low frequency/high consequence events, particularly in today’s densely populated areas. However, there is little guidance available on how local governments and communities can assess Natech risk. To add to the problem, local governments often do not have the human or economic resources or expertise to carry out detailed risk assessments. In this article, we propose a methodology for preliminary assessment of Natech risk in urban areas. The proposed methodology is intended for use by local government officials in consultation with the public. The methodology considers possible interactions between the various systems in the urban environment: the physical infrastructure (e.g., industrial plants, lifeline systems, critical facilities), the community (e.g., population exposed), the natural environment (e.g., delicate ecosystems, river basins), and the risk and emergency management systems (e.g., structural and nonstructural measures). Factors related to vulnerability and hazard are analyzed and qualitative measures are recommended. Data from hazardous materials releases during the Kocaeli, Turkey earthquake of August 17, 1999 are used as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the methodology. Limitations of the proposed methodology are discussed as well as future research needs.

珠江三角洲地质灾害的模糊综合评价

珠江三角洲地质灾害种类的多样性与其所处的复杂地质环境和多变的气候条件密切相关。文章选用了地震活动、活动断裂、地壳升降运动、软土地基、地面塌陷以及冲、淤积等６个主要因素作为评价指标，并用模糊数学方法对珠江三角洲内１７个小区作了计算，结果表明该区大部分地区属于轻灾害区，只有滨海沿岸地区属于较重灾害区。     

鲫鱼(Carassius auratus)在微冻保鲜过程中的质量变化

该文研究鲫鱼 ( Carassius auratus)在微冻 ( - 3℃ )保鲜过程中的质量变化规律。以感官评价、细菌总数、T- VBN值、p H值、ATPase活性、K值等作为质量指标。实验结果表明 ,微冻可以明显抑制细菌总数的增长 ,维持较低的 T- VBN和 K值。但是 ,微冻条件下鲫鱼的 ATPase活性下降速度较快     

Coastal geomorphic evolution at the Denglou Cape, the Leizhou Peninsula

ＩＮＴＲＯＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＴｈｅＤｅｎｇｌｏｕＣａｐｅ ,ｉｎｔｈｅｓｏｕｔｈｗｅｓｔｏｆｔｈｅＬｅｉｚｈｏｕＰｅｎｉｎｓｕｌａ ,ｉｓａｔｔｈｅｎｏｒｔｈｍａｒｇｉｎｏｆｔｒｏｐｉｃａｌｚｏｎｅ .ＳｅｖｅｒａｌｒｅｓｅａｒｃｈｅｓａｎｄｃａｒｔｏｇｒａｐｈｉｅｓｏｆｔｈｅｒｅｇｉｏｎａｌｇｅｏｍｏｒｐｈｏｌｏｇｙａｎｄＱｕａｔｅｒ ｎａｒｙｇｅｏｌｏｇｙ ,ｗｈｉｃｈｗｅｒｅｃａｒｒｉｅｄｏｕｔｉｎｔｈｅｐａｓｔ,ａｌｌｉｎｃｌｕｄｅｔｈｉｓａｒｅａ (ＭＧＬ ,ＳＣＳＩＯ ,ＣＡＳ ,1 978;ＧＰＣＳＧＲＣＺＴ…