基于专家系统决策的多模式控制及其应用

将专家系统技术与常规控制、模糊控制、超前控制、仿人智能操作控制以及计算机控制技术相结合,设计了一种新的基于专家系统决策的多模式控制(MCDBES)。经试验和实际运行结果表明,MCDBES系统对未知数学模型的被控对象,具有良好的控制性能。本文提出的MCDBES已成功地应用于燃油陶瓷窑炉计算机控制系统。     

Assessment of frozen-ground conditions for engineering geology along the Qinghai–Tibet highway and railway, China

The Qinghai–Tibet Highway and Railway (the Corridor) across the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau traverses 670 km of permafrost and seasonally frozen-ground in the interior of the Plateau, which is sensitive to climatic and anthropogenic environmental changes. The frozen-ground conditions for engineering geology along the Corridor is complicated by the variability in the near-surface lithology, and the mosaic presence of warm permafrost and talik in a periglacial environment. Differential settlement is the major frost-effect problem encountered over permafrost areas. The traditional classification of frozen ground based on the areal distribution of permafrost is too generalized for engineering purposes and a more refined classification is necessary for engineering design and construction. A proposed classification of 51 zones, sub-zones, and sections of frozen ground has been widely adopted for the design and construction of foundations in the portion of the Corridor studied. The mean annual ground temperature (MAGT), near-surface soil types and moisture content, and active faults and topography are most commonly the primary controlling factors in this classification. However, other factors, such as local microreliefs, drainage conditions, and snow and vegetation covers also exert important influences on the features of frozen ground. About 60% of the total length of the Corridor studied possesses reasonably good frozen-ground conditions, which do not need special mitigative measures for frost hazards. However, other sections, such as warm and ice-rich or -saturated permafrost, particularly in the sections in wetlands, ground improvement measures such as elevated land bridges and passive or proactive cooling techniques need to be applied to ensure the long-term stability of thermally unstable, thick permafrost subsoils, and/or refill with non-frost-susceptible soils. Due to the long-history of the construction and management of the Corridor by various government departments, adverse impacts of construction and operation on the permafrost environment have been resulted. It is recommended that an integrated, executable plan for the routing of major construction projects within this transportation corridor be established and long-term monitoring networks installed for evaluating and mitigating the impact from anthropogenic and climatic changes in frozen-ground conditions.     

Integrating Uncertainty Theories with GIS for Modeling Coastal Hazards of Climate Change

Prediction of coastal hazards due to climate change is fraught with uncertainty that stems from complexity of coastal systems, estimation of sea level rise, and limitation of available data. In-depth research on coastal modeling is hampered by lack of techniques for handling uncertainty, and the available commercial geographical information systems (GIS) packages have only limited capability of handling uncertain information. Therefore, integrating uncertainty theory with GIS is of practical and theoretical significance. This article presents a GIS-based model that integrates an existing predictive model using a differential approach, random simulation, and fuzzy set theory for predicting geomorphic hazards subject to uncertainty. Coastal hazard is modeled as the combined effects of sea-level induced recession and storm erosion, using grid modeling techniques. The method is described with a case study of Fingal Bay Beach, SE Australia, for which predicted responses to an IPCC standard sea-level rise of 0.86 m and superimposed storm erosion averaged 12 m and 90 m, respectively, with analysis of uncertainty yielding maximum of 52 m and 120 m, respectively. Paradoxically, output uncertainty reduces slightly with simulated increase in random error in the digital elevation model (DEM). This trend implies that the magnitude of modeled uncertainty is not necessarily increased with the uncertainties in the input parameters. Built as a generic tool, the model can be used not only to predict different scenarios of coastal hazard under uncertainties for coastal management, but is also applicable to other fields that involve predictive modeling under uncertainty.     

水库鱼产力评价标准与模式的研究

本文在总结国内外已有成果的基础上,运用专家系统和灰色统计方法,初步建立了一套水库鱼产力评价的指标体系、指标权重体系和指标标准体系,首次给出了比较系统和具有普适意义的评价方案;并运用模糊数学方法建立了综合定量评价模式,从而在很大程度上解决了以往评价中由于多指标重迭、交错造成的难判、误判问题,为水库渔业资源的合理开发利用提供了比较科学的依据。     

疏浚物倾倒区海水水质级别的模糊综合评价

应用模糊综合评价方法对大连臭水套海域疏浚物预选倾倒区的水质状况进行了评价，得到了有益的结论。     

Expanded adaptive fuzzy sliding mode controller using expert knowledge and fuzzy basis function expansion for UFV depth control

Generally, the underwater flight vehicle (UFV) depth control system operates with the following problems: it is a multi-input multi-output (MIMO) system, it requires robustness, a continuous control input, and further, it has the speed dependency of controller parameters. To solve these problems, an expanded adaptive fuzzy sliding mode controller (EAFSMC), which is based on the decomposition method designed by using an expert knowledge and the decoupled sub-controllers and composition method designed by using the fuzzy basis function expansions (FBFEs), is proposed. To verify the performance of the EAFSMC, the depth control of UFV in various operating conditions is performed. Simulation results show that the EAFSMC solves all problems experienced in the UFV depth control system online.     

废弃海洋桩基平台拆除方案的系统决策研究

海洋平台拆除是一项复杂的、受多种因素制约的、涉及许多技术领域的综合性系统工程。采取适当的拆除方案是工程安全、经济、环保地进行的基础和保证。针对这一问题，文章对拆除方案的评估进行了系统的研究，从环境、工艺、安全、经济、工期的角度建立了拆除方案评估指标体系，并综合运用群决策层次分析理论和模糊数学理论对拆除方案进行系统的评估。经实例验证，所建立的评估指标体系，可科学、公正、快捷地对方案进行评估，为决策者提供科学的决策基础。     

An evaluation of systems for the integrated assessment of capture fisheries

Integrated fishery assessments are intended to take an integrated and wholistic view of fisheries management, to provide comprehensive systems-based evaluations of the sustainability of individual fisheries and their products. Using guidance derived from decision theory and management science, we develop 18 criteria to evaluate the likely effectiveness of nine integrated fishery assessment systems. The assessment systems do not consistently consider four key criteria: the socio-economic impacts of fisheries, the provision of food security, the local relevance of the assessment to the fishery under assessment, and the independent peer review of assessment outcomes. Other important areas of weakness include the lack of appropriate consultation processes relating to both the design of the assessment system and the outcomes of fishery assessments, and limitations in the quality of data and information used in assessments. Improvements will be needed in these areas across all the systems we evaluated if fishers, consumers, managers and other stakeholders are to be provided with consistently reliable assessment outcomes, and an assurance of the sustainability of capture fisheries.     

Risk-based decision-making for drilling waste discharges using a fuzzy synthetic evaluation technique

Offshore petroleum drilling wastes contain toxic substances that are potentially harmful to the marine ecosystem. Despite environmentally benign characteristics, wastes associated with synthetic-based fluids still contain a certain amount of pollutants due to contamination with formation oil and the presence of trace heavy metals in barite, which may pose risk when discharged into the marine environment. A framework is presented here for a decision support system for the selection of the best drilling waste discharge option. Uncertainties in the quantification of risk, cost and technical feasibility are expressed by fuzzy numbers. An analytical hierarchy process with a technique called fuzzy synthetic evaluation is employed to determine the best management alternative (discharge scenario).