Developing probabilistic eruption forecasts for dormant volcanoes: a case study from Mt Taranaki,New Zealand

The majority of continental arc volcanoes go through decades or centuries of inactivity, thus, communities become inured to their threat. Here we demonstrate a method to quantify hazard from sporadically active volcanoes and to develop probabilistic eruption forecasts. We compiled an eruption-event record for the last c. 9,500 years at Mt Taranaki, New Zealand through detailed radiocarbon dating of recent deposits and a sediment core from a nearby lake. This is the highest-precision record ever collected from the volcano, but it still probably underestimates the frequency of eruptions, which will only be better approximated by adding data from more sediment core sites in different tephra-dispersal directions. A mixture of Weibull distributions provided the best fit to the inter-event period data for the 123 events. Depending on which date is accepted for the last event, the mixture-of-Weibulls model probability is at least 0.37–0.48 for a new eruption from Mt Taranaki in the next 50 years. A polymodal distribution of inter-event periods indicates that a range of nested processes control eruption recurrence at this type of arc volcano. These could possibly be related by further statistical analysis to intrinsic factors such as step-wise processes of magma rise, assembly and storage.     

Sourcing and identifying andesitic tephras using major oxide titanomagnetite and hornblende chemistry,Egmont volcano and Tongariro Volcanic Centre,New Zealand

 Canonical discriminant function analysis was employed to discriminate between electron microprobe-determined titanomagnetite and hornblende analyses from Egmont volcano and Tongariro Volcanic Centre. Data sets of 436 titanomagnetite and 206 hornblende analyses from the two sources were used for the study. Titanomagnetite chemistry provided the best discrimination between these two sources with classification efficiencies of 99% for sample averages and 95% for individual analyses. The difference between sources for hornblende chemistry was less marked, but classification efficiencies of 100% for sample averages and 87% for individual analyses were achieved. Using the same methods a preliminary discrimination of individual Egmont volcano-sourced tephras was attempted. Titanomagnetite chemistry enabled the discrimination of several individual tephras or at least pairs of tephra units, but hornblende chemistry provided little discrimination. This technique provides an improvement on previous methods for chemically distinguishing distal tephra from the two sources as well as potentially identifying individual tephras from a particular source. A major advantage over previous discrimination techniques is that individual analyses can be classified with a known probability of group membership (with groups such as volcano source or an individual tephra unit). Tephras in a depositional environment where mixing is common such as within soil, loess and marine sequences, can be sourced or identified more easily with classification of individual grains. Received: 19 July 1995 / Accepted: 13 February 1996     

Sedimentary signatures of cyclic growth and destruction of stratovolcanoes: A case study from Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand

The long-term behaviour of andesite stratovolcanoes is characterised by a repetition of edifice growth phases followed by collapse. This cyclic pattern represents a natural frequency at varying timescales in the growth dynamics of stratovolcanoes worldwide. Around the > 130 ka Mt. Taranaki (Egmont volcano), New Zealand, coastal–cliff successions at 20–40 km distance comprise repeating packages of lithologically and sedimentologically distinctive mass-flow deposits. Varying depositional mechanisms and source properties of these units record growth and collapse cycles of the central edifice. These are used to construct a model for cyclic volcaniclastic sedimentation in the surrounds of stratovolcanoes. During edifice-construction phases, thick packages of tabular, predominantly monolithologic, hyperconcentrated-flow and debris-flow deposits accumulate with intercalated tephra beds. The mass-flow units commonly contain large proportions of fresh pumice or juvenile-lithic andesite. Intervals of quiescence separating eruptive periods are characterised by landscape re-adjustment, accompanied by deposition of fluvial and aeolian sediments, along with steady accretion of medial ash. In contrast, brief episodes of destruction are marked by wide-spread, distinctively clay-rich, polylithologic debris-avalanche deposits and related marginal debris flow units. The growth stages can be terminated by an eruption-triggered sector collapse, or by external forces once the edifice exceeds a critical stable height or profile (dependent on eruptive style and local geo-tectonic conditions). Once the edifice becomes metastable, regional tectonic earthquakes or shallow-level intrusion events are likely triggers for collapse. Although the resulting debris avalanches represent the greatest individual hazard from such andesite stratovolcanoes, their frequency is relatively low compared with other types of mass-flows generated during edifice-growth phases. Accurate forecasts of future hazard from mass-flow events are therefore dependent on recognition of both the frequency of a stratovolcano's growth cycle and its current position in that cycle.     

Towards a comprehensive distal andesitic tephrostratigraphic framework for New Zealand based on eruptions from Egmont volcano

The chronology and glass composition of 43 andesitic tephra layers in palaeolake sediments in northern New Zealand provide the basis for a fine‐resolution tephrostratigraphy of the interval 10–70 cal. ka. Their ages are constrained by 14 interbedded, (mostly) well‐dated rhyolitic tephra layers. The andesitic tephra have the potential to subdivide time intervals (1–5 kyr) bracketed by well known rhyolitic layers, including periods of rapid climate change such as the last glacial–interglacial transition and the Younger Dryas. The source of the distal andesitic tephra is identified as Egmont volcano (some 270 km S‐SW) on the basis of glass shard composition. The tephra contain high‐K₂O (3–6 wt%) andesitic‐dacitic (SiO₂ = 60–73 wt%) glass, with commonly heterogeneous shard populations (2–10 wt% SiO₂). Within stratigraphic intervals of < 10 kyr, individual tephra layers can be distinguished on the basis of their SiO₂ and K₂O contents, and variability in these contents can also be a distinguishing characteristic. The tephra record greatly extends the dated pyroclastic and geochemical record of Egmont volcano, and demonstrates that the volcano has frequently produced widely dispersed tephra over the last 70 kyr at a generally constant rate. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Crystal size distributions and other quantitative textural measurements in lavas and tuff from Egmont volcano (Mt. Taranaki), New Zealand

 The size, shape and orientation of plagioclase crystals have been quantified in a tuff and series of andesite lavas from the active Egmont volcano (Mt. Taranaki), New Zealand. Linear crystal size distributions (CSDs) show that if the magma had several components, then only one provided the crystals. The slope of the CSD indicates that the earliest lavas measured had a residence time of ∼50 years in the magma chamber for a growth rate of 10^–11 cm/s. Subsequent lavas had slightly longer residence times (50–75 years), but the following series returned to 50-year residence times. The youngest magmas, from both Egmont summit and the parasitic Fantham's Peak, have the shortest residence times of ∼30 years. Variations in residence time may reflect changes in the magma chamber shape or depth, or the temperature of the surrounding rocks. Crystal shapes and zonation suggest that crystallization occurred in a bottle-shape magma chamber, and not in a narrow conduit. If future eruptions use the same magma chamber as the most recent eruptions, then a delay of approximately 30 years can be expected between refilling and eruption. Received: 25 October 1995 / Accepted: 19 April 1996