World oil: Hotelling depletion or accelerating use?

In theoretical Hotelling-type models of resource depletion, oil use declines monotonically over time to depletion. However, world oil use has been increasing for several years. Can theory and reality be reconciled? The answer is affirmative, if theory is modified to accommodate outward-shifting demand functions that are rising in response to growth in world population and income. Under this assumption, a Hotelling depletion model projects a 50-year period of increasing world oil use before the decline to exhaustion. This holds for both competitive and monopolistic regimes. Hotelling theory has been criticized by Adelman and others, in part because of the unreality of the theoretical projections. By combining the modified Hotelling theory with U.S. Geological Survey resource estimates, the numerical projections seem congruent with Adelman's near-term expectations. Finally, a backstop technology, such as renewable biomass ethanol, introduces a new dimension. Assuming a $2-per-gallon cost for the ethanol, the modified Hotelling theory projects accelerating use of conventional oil until depletion or substitution. Consequently, it does not seem unreasonable to believe that a finite, limited resource of conventional oil is consistent with growing use for several decades. A projected exhaustion in 100 years is consisten with increasing use for 50 years.     

南极长城站夏季哨声的观测与分析

在中国首次南极考察期间,我们对哨声和VLF发射进行了37天的连续观测。本文首先对观测设备作了介绍,在对观测资料进行统计分析的基础上就哨声类型、发生率、色散特征等作了描述,然后重点对磁暴期间两天的哨声活动作了较细致的分析,并由此推求出其传播途径上的电子浓度变化。观测到了磁暴期间等离子体层的倒空现象和其后的回填过程。计算表明,倒空的速率为10⁹el/cm²·s,向上的回填通量为5x10⁸ el/cm²·s。     

Compositional signatures of SSZ-type peridotites from the northern Vourinos ultra-depleted upper mantle suite,NW Greece

The northern Vourinos massif, located in the Dinarides-Hellenides mountain belt in the Balkan Peninsula, forms a section of the so-called Neotethyan ophiolitic belt in the Alpine-Himalayan orogenic system. It is comprised mainly of a well-preserved mantle sequence, dominated by voluminous massive harzburgite with variable clinopyroxene and olivine modal abundances, accompanied by subordinate coarse- and fine-grained dunite. The harzburgite rock varieties are characterized by high Cr# [Cr/(Cr + Al)] values in Cr-spinel (0.47–0.74), elevated Mg# [Mg/(Mg + Fe²⁺)] in olivine (0.90–0.93), low Al₂O₃ content in clinopyroxene (≤1.82 wt.%) and low average bulk-rock concentrations of CaO (0.52 wt.%) and Al₂O₃ (0.40 wt.%), which are indicative of their refractory nature. In addition, dunite-type rocks display even more depleted compositions, containing Cr-spinel and olivine with higher Cr# (0.76–0.84) and Mg# (0.91–0.94), respectively. They also display extremely low average abundances of CaO (0.13 wt.%) and Al₂O₃ (0.15 wt.%). The vast majority of the studied peridotites are also strongly depleted in REE. Simple batch and fractional melting models are not sufficient to explain their ultra-depleted composition. Whole-rock trace element abundances of the northern Vourinos mantle rocks can be modeled by up to 22–31% closed-system non-modal dynamic melting of an assumed primitive mantle (PM) source having spinel lherzolite composition. The highly depleted compositional signatures of the investigated peridotites indicate that they have experienced hydrous melting in the fore-arc mantle region above a SSZ. This intense melting event was responsible for the release of arc-related melts from the mantle. These melts reacted with the studied peridotites causing incongruent melting of pyroxenes followed by considerable olivine and Cr-spinel addition in terms of cryptic metasomatism. This later metasomatic episode has obscured any geochemical fingerprints indicative of an early mantle melting event in a MOR setting. The lack of any MOR-type peridotites in the northern Vourinos depleted mantle suite is quite uncommon for SSZ-type Neotethyan ophiolites.     

An analysis of snow cover patterns in a small alpine catchment

Snow cover patterns in a 9.4 km² basin in the Austrian Alps are examined during spring and summer 1989. Digital mono-plotting from oblique aerophotographs is used for mapping. on the basis of a square grid with 25 m spacing, snow cover as mapped during nine surveys is analysed as a function of elevation and slope. During winter conditions the snow cover is found to be much better related to these terrain features than during the late ablation period.     

Local effects of blue mussels around turbine foundations in an ecosystem model of Nysted off-shore wind farm, Denmark

The development of off-shore wind farms along the coastline of north-west Europe is rapidly increasing; it is therefore important to study how this will affect the marine environment. The present study modelled the growth and feed-backs of blue mussels in natural beds and on turbine foundations in an off-shore wind farm (OWF) located in a shallow coastal ecosystem by coupling a dynamic energy budget (DEB) model to a small-scale 3D hydrodynamic–biogeochemical model. The model results showed that blue mussels located higher up in the water column on turbine pillars achieved a 7–18 times higher biomass than those located on the scour protection because the former experience an enhanced advective food supply. Secondly, the high biomasses of blue mussels on foundations created local ‘hot spots’ of biological activity and changed ecosystem dynamics due to their feed-backs e.g. ingestion of microplankton and copepods, excretion of ammonium and egestion of faecal pellets. The model results were supported by field measurements around foundations of Chl a concentrations and biomasses of the fauna community. Our study emphasised that OWFs seem to be particularly favourable for blue mussels in the western Baltic Sea and that the functioning of the OWFs as artificial reef ecosystems depends upon how the blue mussels interact with their local pelagic and benthic environment.     

Is ozone depletion really recovering?

The ozone depletion, which started in late 1970s seems to have reached a maximum level (minimum ozone) in 1996 and a recovery seems to have occurred thereafter up to 2003. But in the succeeding years 2004–2006, there seems to have occurred a relapse.     

近30年青藏高原臭氧总量亏损的可能原因及其与对流层顶高度的联系

基于总臭氧测绘光谱计TOMS和太阳向后紫外线散射仪SBUV结合得到的30年(1979-2008年)全球月平均臭氧总量资料,首先分析了近30年青藏高原(下称高原)上空臭氧总量的下降趋势,然后讨论了高原动力抬升作用对臭氧总量的影响,最后探讨了高原臭氧总量亏损与高原对流层顶高度的联系。结果表明,高原臭氧总量及其下降趋势均存在着明显的季节差异,与同纬度非高原区相比,高原地区各月的臭氧总量均偏低,特别是在3-9月臭氧亏损严重;近30年高原地区臭氧总量在各季节均呈现出下降趋势,除了秋季外,其下降幅度均超过同纬度其他地区;春、夏季高原动力抬升有利于对流层低浓度的臭氧含量向平流层输送,从而导致高原臭氧总量的减少。近30年春、夏季高原臭氧总量亏损与夏季高原第二对流层顶高度的抬升存在着密切关系。     

南极大陆沿岸地面臭氧损耗事件的研究

利用南极大陆沿岸中山站2008-2013年的地面臭氧连续观测数据和相关资料,对地面臭氧损耗事件（ODE）进行研究。结果显示,春季南极中山站常发生臭氧损耗事件。在该事件发生期间,气象要素有明显的突变过程,包括气温明显下降,风向由偏东风转变为偏北风,风速随之下降。来自海冰区的偏北风增多,风速很小,使臭氧浓度维持在较低水平。地面臭氧损耗事件主要与南极沿岸海冰区的活性溴（BrO）浓度有关。春季南极大陆沿岸海冰冻融过程中形成的冰间水道和冰间湖,在低温的作用下会再次冻结,形成薄冰和霜花。卫星资料能够观测到薄冰区释放的活化海盐溴高浓度区,活性溴与臭氧发生化学反应形成地面臭氧损耗事件。臭氧损耗现象是在未受到人为影响的自然状态下发生的,与中高纬度地区光化学反应导致臭氧消耗有所不同。      

Global fisheries losses at the exclusive economic zone level, 1950 to present

Up to one-third of commercial fishery stocks may be overfished at present. By analyzing catch trends and applying an empirical relationship derived from stock assessments, this article tracks the geographic spread of overfishing at the country level in terms of lost catch and lost revenue, from the start of industrialized fishing in 1950-2004. The results tell a cautionary tale of serial depletion to meet the ever-rising demand for fish. Examining country losses with respect to fishery management reveals that overcapacity and excess fishing effort are widespread, but also that recent trends towards sustainability can stabilize or reverse losses (e.g. for Norway, Iceland, the US, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand). Global trade effectively masks the successive depletion of stocks, so that without decisive action to reduce fishing effort, many more stocks will suffer and undernourishment impacts for the major exporting, food-deficit nations will only magnify.     

The spatial,temporal and volumetric analysis of a large mud volcano province within the Eastern Mediterranean

This paper documents and describes through the use of 3D seismic data a prolific mud volcano province within the Eastern Mediterranean. As many as 386 mud volcanoes were mapped within the post-salt succession of the western slope of the Nile Cone, offshore Egypt, using high resolution 3D seismic data. The mud volcanoes within this field display significant geometrical variability in diameter (c. 550 m to c. 5660 m), height (c. 25 m to c. 510 m) and volume (c. 0.1 km³ to c. 3.3 km³) and lie at depths ranging from c. > 6000 m subsea to c. 3100 m at the seafloor. A close spatial relationship between mud volcanoes and base-salt depressions and regions of anomalous thinning within the immediate pre-salt succession, combined with documented core samples taken from mud volcanoes within this region present a powerful argument for a pre-salt source of mud. 3D seismic interpretation and volumetric analysis of these mud volcanoes and their source region permit the definition and quantification of their depletion zones. A conceptual model for a dynamic liquefaction and sediment withdrawal process is proposed whereby mud is fed into a central conduit as the depletion zone propagates radially and episodically outwards resulting in a the formation of a concentric depletion zones. Prolonged mud volcanism within this region over the last ∼5.3 Ma implies the potential for long lived pre-salt overpressure and continued mud volcanism following the catastrophic hydrodynamic impact of the Messinian Salinity Crisis. It is suggested that the scale of mud volcanism means that this region should be considered as among the largest mud volcano provinces in the world.