Application of Dangerous Probability Function in Risk Estimation of Surface Rupture Earthquake：Taking the Lingwu Fault in Ningxi1 Region as on Example

Based on the fitting on paleoearthquake data of intra-plate regions in the northern part of Chi-na and giving a statistical model of time interdependence,the potential damage earthquakes in a definite future period and characteristics of present shocks along the Lingwu fault have been analyzed by using dangerous probability function and some new data concerned.We have in-ferred that the fault has entered a period that earthquakes will probably occur.There exists a potential danger that a strong earthquake with Ms7.0-7.5 will occur in 10-100a.     

Some economics of ‘dangerous’ climate change: Reflections on the Stern Review

The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be “no doubt” the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are “very severe” [Stern, 2006. The Economics of Climate Change. HM Treasury, London, p. 188]. The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off, permanent 5–20% loss in global mean per-capita consumption today. And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p. 344]. Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature. Subsequently, a number of critiques have appeared, arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy. Discounting is important, but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty, and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probability/high-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of ‘dangerous’ climate change), can matter just as much. We demonstrate these arguments empirically, using the same models applied in the Stern Review. Together, the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand, and ‘dangerous’ climate change on the other, raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach, where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate. Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling. There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling, bringing together scientific ‘fact’ and value judgement systematically. But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates. Ironically, the Stern Review is one of those voices. A fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should, and are, built on broader foundations.     

济南药山崩塌地质灾害治理方法初探

济南地区的中基性岩体,大面积隐伏分布于济南市北部地带,零星出露为孤峰或丘陵,构成济南地区著名的"齐烟九点"地貌景观。药山为"齐烟九点"之一,地处济南杂岩体的中西部,岩性主要为闪长岩、辉长岩等,块状结构,节理裂隙发育,易球状风化形成临空状危岩体,构成崩塌地质灾害隐患。结合济南药山危岩体组合特征,进行了稳定性计算和分析,提出了不同的治理方案以及具体施工方法和施工顺序,以期达到消除地质灾害隐患的目的,切实保护人民生命财产安全,为类似地区开展地质灾害治理提供参考。     

两河口水电站右坝肩边坡的氡异常特征

通过对岩体的氡气测试,得到不同高程氡气脉冲值的硐深变化曲线,分析岩体卸荷强度和方式与其氡异常的相关性。岩体卸荷强度愈高,高氡异常值越高,异常深度范围越大,异常特征越明显。边坡集中卸荷拉裂部位、断层及错动带高氡异常,但边坡深部某些顺层断层或错动带异常特征不明显。结果显示卸荷强度和方式与氡气异常特征密切相关。     

Identifying rock blocks based on hierarchical rock-mass structure model

Rock-masses are divided into many closed blocks by deterministic and stochastic discontinuities and engineering interfaces in complex rock-mass engineering. Determining the sizes, shapes, and adjacent relations of blocks is important for stability analysis of fractured rock masses. Here we propose an algorithm for identifying spatial blocks based on a hierarchical 3D Rock-mass Structure Model (RSM). First, a model is built composed of deterministic discontinuities, engineering interfaces, and the earth’s su...     

水压致裂法测量裂隙岩体的地应力研究

通过对水压致裂法形成的钻孔印模分析,运用Taylor公式和最小二乘法迭代算法,计算纵向和横向裂隙岩体地应力大小及其误差。首先确定大地、裂隙和钻孔坐标系,根据印模曲线确定裂隙方位;然后用Taylor公式和最小二乘法迭代算法,计算应力分量;最后计算出主应力大小及其误差。将此方法应用于雪峰山隧址区ZK6钻孔的地应力场计算,得出其最大水平应力为13 MPa,方位113°左右,这与地质构造法实测的应力场相吻合,说明这一方法合理可行,具有较好的实用价值。      

侵入型岩体三维可视化构模技术研究

根据侵入型岩体的空间几何特征及地质数据的特点,采用断面构模技术实现侵入型岩体三维构模。利用多条轮廓线之间的三维表面重构方法,构建侵入型岩体的表面模型。在生成体数据时使用改进的MC法,提高了构模精度,将多条轮廓线之间的表面重构问题转化为体数据中的等值面构造问题。开发了一种三维可视化构模系统,并利用该系统所提供的构模技术,实现了灵宝金矿侵入型岩体三维模型的构建。      

青海省林火险级预报方法

本文通过对青海省各林区林火的区域划分、时间分布以及林火与气象因子的关系进行分析,找出了能较好反映青海省林火发生规律的天气指标,建立了气象因子与林火险级的定量关系。     

三峡库区云阳—江津段危岩形成的影响因素及稳定性评价

三峡库区云阳—江津段高陡岸坡地质环境复杂,危岩极其发育,其破坏具有突发性,致灾具有毁灭性。危岩稳定性影响因素具有复杂性及模糊性特点,河流或沟谷强烈下切产生的岸坡岩体卸荷作用、软硬相间的岩层组合以及高强度的降雨或较大的日温差变化是三峡库区危岩形成的基本条件。本文选取地形地貌、地层岩性、岩体结构、危岩体规模、水文地质、风化作用、土地利用类型7个因子作为评价指标,建立危岩稳定性评价指数模型。根据稳定性指数将危岩稳定性分为4级:稳定、基本稳定、稳定性差、稳定性极差。结合实例,对万州黑岩脚危岩体进行了稳定性模糊评价,结果与实际调查情况基本一致。研究结果表明,本文提出的危岩稳定性评价指数模型,考虑的信息量丰富,数据通过野外调查容易获得;评价指标权选取和分级合理,稳定性模糊评价结果与与实际调查情况基本符合,为三峡库区危岩稳定性分析、治理和监测提供了重要依据。     

"5.12"震后区域地质灾害危险性评价研究——以青川、平武县为例

四川省"5.12"地震影响区,诱发了大童滑坡、崩塌、泥石流等地质灾害,给人民生命财产造成了重大损失.震后要相当长的余震期,加之降雨大,地质灾害还有进一步恶化的趋势.运用地面调查方法很难满足要求,尤其是很难满足时效性,结合研究区地质背景特征和多源遥感数据解译结果,确定地质灾害评价的指标体系,综合运用数学方法、GIS技术,...