Evaluation of approaches to calculate debris-flow parameters for hazard assessment

Many different runout prediction methods can be applied to estimate the mobility of future debris flows during hazard assessment. The present article reviews the empirical, analytical, simple flow routing and numerical techniques. All these techniques were applied to back-calculate a debris flow, which occurred in 1982 at La Guingueta catchment, in the Eastern Pyrenees. A sensitivity analysis of input parameters was carried out, while special attention was paid to the influence of rheological parameters. We used the Voellmy fluid rheology for our analytical and numerical modelling, since this flow resistance law coincided best with field observations. The simulation results indicated that the “basal” friction coefficients rather affect the runout distance, while the “turbulence” terms mainly influence flow velocity. A comparison of the velocity computed on the fan showed that the analytical model calculated values similar to the numerical ones. The values of our rheological parameters calibrated at La Guingueta agree with data back-calculated for other debris flows. Empirical relationships represent another method to estimate total runout distance. The results confirmed that they contain an important uncertainty and they are strictly valid only for the conditions, which were the basis for their development. With regards to the simple flow routing algorithm, this methods could satisfactorily simulate the total area affected by the 1982 debris flow, but it was not able to directly calculate total runout distance and velocity. Finally, a suggestion on how different runout prediction methods can be applied to generate debris-flow hazard maps is presented. Taking into account the definition of hazard and intensity, the best choice would be to divide the resulting hazard maps into two types: “final hazard maps” and “preliminary hazard maps”. Only the use of numerical models provided final hazard maps, because they could incorporate different event magnitudes and they supplied output-values for intensity calculation. In contrast, empirical relationships and flow routing algorithms, or a combination of both, could be applied to create preliminary hazard maps. The present study only focussed on runout prediction methods. Other necessary tasks to complete the hazard assessment can be looked up in the “Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning” included in this Special Issue.     

The Meso-Cenozoic thermo-tectonic evolution of the Eastern Pyrenees: an <Superscript>40</Superscript>Ar/<Superscript>39</Superscript>Ar fission track and (U–Th)/He thermochronological study of the Canigou and Mont-Louis massifs

Vertical displacements on the SW–NE Têt fault (Eastern Pyrenees Axial Zone, France), which separates the Variscan Canigou-Carança and Mont-Louis massifs, were constrained using a thermochronologic multi-method approach. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar data from the granitic Mont-Louis massif record its Variscan cooling history and reveal no ages younger than Early Cretaceous, while the Canigou-Carança gneiss massif records systematically younger ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages. These younger ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages in the Canigou-Carança gneiss massif are the result of partial to total rejuvenation of argon isotopic systems related to a thermal flow coeval with the Cretaceous HT-BP metamorphism in the North Pyrenean Zone. Only the deepest rocks from the Canigou-Carança suffered this extensive Mid-Cretaceous thermal overprint probably due to differential burial around 4 km at that time. The post Mid-Cretaceous vertical displacements along the Têt fault are recorded by “low” temperature thermochronology using K-feldspar ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar, zircon and apatite fission track and (U–Th)/He datings. The Mont-Louis granite samples experienced a long period of protracted cooling reflecting a lack of thermo-tectonic activity in this area from Late Palaeozoic to Early Cenozoic, followed by cooling from 55–60 Ma to Late Eocene at a mean rate of 15–20°C/Ma in the final stage. This cooling stage corresponds to Têt fault reactivation with a reversed component, promoting exhumation of the Mont-Louis roof zone contemporaneously with the south-vergent Pyrenean thrusting. In the Canigou-Carança massif, the main cooling event occurred from 32 to 18 Ma at a maximum rate of 30°C/Ma during Early Oligocene followed by a more moderate rate of 3°C/Ma from Late Oligocene to Early Burdigalian, coeval with the normal reactivation of the Têt fault in brittle conditions that accommodated the final exhumation of the massif during the opening of the Gulf of Lion.     

Application of FLATModel, a 2D finite volume code, to debris flows in the northeastern part of the Iberian Peninsula

FLATModel is a two-dimensional shallow-water approximation code with corrections and modifications that create a simulation tool adapted to debris-flows behaviour. FLATModel uses the finite volume method with the numerical implementation of the Godunov scheme and includes correction terms regarding the effect of flow over high slopes and curvature. Additionally, the stop-and-go phenomenon, the basal entrainment and a correction regarding the front inclination of the final deposit are incorporated into FLATModel. In addition, different flow resistance laws were integrated in the numerical code including Bingham, Herschel–Bulkley and Voellmy fluid model. Firstly, our numerical model was validated using analytical solutions of a dam-break scenario and published data on a laboratory experiment. Secondly, three real events, which occurred in the northeastern part of the Iberian Peninsula, were back-calculated. Although field observations of the three events are not very detailed, the back-analyses revealed interesting patterns on the flow dynamics, and the numerical results generally showed good agreement with field data. Comparing the different flow resistance laws, the Voellmy fluid model presents the best behaviour regarding both the flow behaviour and the deposit characteristics. Preliminary simulation runs incorporating the effect of basal entrainment offered satisfactory results, although the final volume is rather sensitive on the selected friction angle of channel-bed material. The outcomes regarding the correction of the calculated front inclination of the final deposit showed that this implementation strongly improves the simulation results and better represents steep fronts of final deposits.     

Aftershocks series monitoring of the September 18, 2004 M = 4.6 earthquake at the western Pyrenees: A case of reservoir-triggered seismicity?

On September 18, 2004, a 4.6 mbLg earthquake was widely felt in the region around Pamplona, at the western Pyrenees. Preliminary locations reported an epicenter less than 20 km ESE of Pamplona and close to the Itoiz reservoir, which started impounding in January 2004. The area apparently lacks of significant seismic activity in recent times. After the main shock, which was preceded by series of foreshocks reaching magnitudes of 3.3 mbLg, a dense temporal network of 13 seismic stations was deployed there to monitor the aftershocks series and to constrain the hypocentral pattern. Aftershock determinations obtained with a double-difference algorithm define a narrow epicentral zone of less than 10 km², ESE–WNW oriented. The events are mainly concentrated between 3 and 9 km depth. Focal solutions were computed for the main event and 12 aftershocks including the highest secondary one of 3.8 mbLg. They show mainly normal faulting with some strike-slip component and one of the nodal planes oriented NW–SE and dipping to the NE. Cross-correlation techniques applied to detect and associate events with similar waveforms, provided up to 33 families relating the 67% of the 326 relocated aftershocks. Families show event clusters grouped by periods and migrating from NW to SE. Interestingly, the narrow epicentral zone inferred here is located less than 4 km away from the 111-m high Itoiz dam. These hypocentral results, and the correlation observed between fluctuations of the reservoir water level and the seismic activity, favour the explanation of this foreshock–aftershock series as a rapid response case of reservoir-triggered seismicity, burst by the first impoundment of the Itoiz reservoir. The region is folded and affected by shallow dipping thrusts, and the Itoiz reservoir is located on the hangingwall of a low angle southward verging thrust, which might be a case sensible to water level fluctuations. However, continued seismic monitoring in the coming years is mandatory in this area to infer more reliable seismotectonic and hazard assessments.     

Climate variability in the Spanish Pyrenees during the last 30,000 yr revealed by the El Portalet sequence

Palynological, sedimentological and stable isotopic analyses of carbonates and organic matter performed on the El Portalet sequence (1802 m a.s.l., 42°48′00?N, 0°23′52?W) reflect the paleoclimatic evolution and vegetation history in the central-western Spanish Pyrenees over the last 30,000 yr, and provide a high-resolution record for the late glacial period. Our results confirm previous observations that deglaciation occurred earlier in the Pyrenees than in northern European and Alpine sites and point to a glacial readvance from 22,500 to 18,000 cal yr BP, coinciding with the global last glacial maximum. The patterns shown by the new, high-resolution pollen data from this continental sequence, chronologically constrained by 13 AMS ¹⁴C dates, seem to correlate with the rapid climate changes recorded in Greenland ice cores during the last glacial-interglacial transition. Abrupt events observed in northern latitudes (Heinrich events 3 to 1, Oldest and Older Dryas stades, Intra-Allerød Cold Period, and 8200 cal yr BP event) were also identified for the first time in a lacustrine sequence from the central-western Pyrenees as cold and arid periods. The coherent response of the vegetation and the lake system to abrupt climate changes implies an efficient translation of climate variability from the North Atlantic to mid latitudes.     

Far field effects of Alpine plate tectonism in the Iberian microplate recorded by fault-related denudation in the Spanish Central System

Apatite fission track analysis was performed on 56 samples from central Spain to unravel the far field effects of the Alpine plate tectonic history of Iberia. The modelled thermal histories reveal complex cooling in the Cenozoic, indicative of intermittent denudation. Accelerated cooling events occurred across the Spanish Central System (SCS) from the Middle Eocene to Recent. These accelerated cooling events resulted in up to 2.8±0.9 km of denudation in the western Sierra de Gredos and 3.6±1.0 km in the central and eastern Gredos (assuming a paleogeothermal gradient of 28±5 °C and a surface temperature of 10 °C). The greatest amount of denudation (5.0±1.6 km) occurred in the Sierra de Guadarrama. Accompanying rock uplift was 4.7±1.0 and 5.9±1.6 km in the eastern Gredos and Guadarrama, respectively. Most denudation in the Gredos occurred from the Middle Eocene to the Early Miocene and can be related to the N–S stress field, induced by the Pyrenean compression. In the Guadarrama, the greatest denudation was Pliocene to Recent of age and seems related to the ongoing NW–SE Betic compression. The fact that the formation of the E–W trending Gredos coincides with the N–S Pyrenean compression and the creation of the present day morphology of the NE–SW trending Guadarrama with the younger NW–SE Betic compression, indicates that they record the far field effects of Alpine plate tectonics on Iberia. The trend of pre-existing lineaments was of major importance in influencing the style and magnitude of these of far field effects.     

Stability analysis of the Vallcebre translational slide,Eastern Pyrenees (Spain) by means of a GIS

The stability of the landslide of Vallcebre has been evaluated by means of a GIS. The landslide mechanism is a translational failure which has been analysed as an infinite slope. Soil strength parameters and groundwater conditions are obtained from laboratory tests and monitoring devices. Geometric parameters necessary to compute the factor of safety at each individual cell are generated by interpolation from the boreholes present in the landslide. The results have been checked with the actual behaviour of the landslide and are consistent. The comparison between a conventional slope stability analysis and the GIS-based approach gives similar results, showing the feasibility of the latter.     

Hazard Zoning for Landslides Connected to Torrential Floods in the Jerte Valley (Spain) by using GIS Techniques

The Jerte Valley is anortheast-southwest tending graben located in the mountainous region of west central Spain (Spanish Central System). Mass movements have been a predominant shaping process on the Valley slopes during the Quaternary. Present day activity is characterized as either `first-time failure' (shallow debris slides and debris flows) or `reactivations' of pre-existing landslides deposits.A delineation of landslide hazard zoningwithin the Valley has been carried out by using the detailed documentation of a particular event (a debris slide and a sequel torrential flood, which occurred on the Jubaguerra stream gorge), and GIS techniques. The procedure has had four stages, which are: (1) the elaboration of a susceptibility map (spatial prediction) of landslides; (2) the elaboration of a map of `restricted susceptibility' in the particular case of slopes that are connected to streams and torrents (gorges); (3) the elaboration of a digital model which relates the altitude to the occurrence probability of those particular precipitation conditions which characterized the Jubaguerra event and (4) the combination of the probability model with the `restricted susceptibility map', to establish `critical zones' or areas which are more prone to the occurrence of phenomena that have same typology as this one.     

Layer parallel shortening in salt-detached folds: constraint on cross-section restoration

Cleavage-fissility perpendicular to bedding is a common feature in the external part of fold-and-thrust belts. Three techniques were used to determine the internal distortion in the frontal Southern Pyrenees: the analysis of strain markers such as burrows and rain drops, the measurement of fissility, and the measurement of anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS). The comparison of the three techniques showed a good fit although they differ in sensitivity to penetrative strain variations in the range of deformation values explored in the study case. On the regional scale, the values of layer parallel shortening (LPS) derived from the markers analysis are very constant and account for 16–23% of shortening. These values are two to three times larger than the shortening values calculated from the restoration of the macroscopic scale structures and indicate a good decoupling above the Cardona salt Formation. This study permitted an accurate restoration of the low-amplitude el Guix detached anticline.