Modelling the effect of changing precipitation inputs on deep soil water utilization

Forests in the Southeastern United States are predicted to experience future changes in seasonal patterns of precipitation inputs as well as more variable precipitation events. These climate change‐induced alterations could increase drought and lower soil water availability. Drought could alter rooting patterns and increase the importance of deep roots that access subsurface water resources. To address plant response to drought in both deep rooting and soil water utilization as well as soil drainage, we utilize a throughfall reduction experiment in a loblolly pine plantation of the Southeastern United States to calibrate and validate a hydrological model. The model was accurately calibrated against field measured soil moisture data under ambient rainfall and validated using 30% throughfall reduction data. Using this model, we then tested these scenarios: (a) evenly reduced precipitation; (b) less precipitation in summer, more in winter; (c) same total amount of precipitation with less frequent but heavier storms; and (d) shallower rooting depth under the above 3 scenarios. When less precipitation was received, drainage decreased proportionally much faster than evapotranspiration implying plants will acquire water first to the detriment of drainage. When precipitation was reduced by more than 30%, plants relied on stored soil water to satisfy evapotranspiration suggesting 30% may be a threshold that if sustained over the long term would deplete plant available soil water. Under the third scenario, evapotranspiration and drainage decreased, whereas surface run‐off increased. Changes in root biomass measured before and 4 years after the throughfall reduction experiment were not detected among treatments. Model simulations, however, indicated gains in evapotranspiration with deeper roots under evenly reduced precipitation and seasonal precipitation redistribution scenarios but not when precipitation frequency was adjusted. Deep soil and deep rooting can provide an important buffer capacity when precipitation alone cannot satisfy the evapotranspirational demand of forests. How this buffering capacity will persist in the face of changing precipitation inputs, however, will depend less on seasonal redistribution than on the magnitude of reductions and changes in rainfall frequency.     

Subsurface flow measurements using passive flux meters in variably-saturated cold-regions landscapes

To date, passive flux meters have predominantly been applied in temperate environments for tracking the movement of contaminants in groundwater. This study applies these instruments to reduce uncertainty in (typically instantaneous) flux measurements made in a low-gradient, wetland dominated, discontinuous permafrost environment. This method supports improved estimation of unsaturated and over-winter subsurface flows which are very difficult to quantify using hydraulic gradient-based approaches. Improved subsurface flow estimates can play a key role in understanding the water budget of this landscape.     

Local level rainfall and temperature variability in drought-prone districts of rural Sidama,central rift valley region of Ethiopia

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study is to examine local level spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature variability in drought-prone districts of rural Sidama, Central Rift Valley region of Ethiopia. The study used 129 gridded monthly rainfall and temperature data of 32 years (1983–2014). The gridded rainfall and temperature records were encoded into GIS software and evaluated through different statistical and geospatial techniques. Mann-Kendal rank test and F distribution tests were used to test temporal and spatial statistical significance, respectively, of the data. The analysis revealed that Belg and Kiremt are the main rainfall seasons, constituting 81% of the annual rainfall. Although annual, Kiremt, and Belg rainfall amounts appear to have decreased over time, the decreasing trend is statistically significant only for Belg rainfall records. On the other hand, rainfall standard anomaly results indicated seven droughts of different magnitudes: one extreme, two severe, and four moderate. The study also revealed increasing temperature trends over the years under consideration that are statistically significant. The findings of this study on rainfall contradict other findings obtained around the study area. Thus, climate change adaptations need to focus on location-specific climate data analysis so that the intended adaptive interventions can be successful.     

Symplectic Mappings of Co-orbital Motion in the Restricted Problem of Three Bodies

The dynamics of co-orbital motion in the restricted three-body problem are investigated by symplectic mappings. Analytical and semi-numerical mappings have been developed and studied in detail. The mappings have been tested by numerical integration of the equations of motion. These mappings have been proved to be useful for a quick determination of the phase space structure reflecting the main characteristics of the dynamics of the co-orbital problem.     

GPS/LEO掩星观测的变分同化技术

在简单介绍GPS/LEO掩星探测大气的发展历史和科学意义之后,详细阐述了反演的基本原理;分析了标准反演中存在的问题,并说明一维变分同化(1DVAR)在反演方法中的重要性;给出了一维变分同化中价值函数的求解,以及各种同化因子;简单介绍了对当前气象学中普遍使用的四维变分同化(4DVAR);重点讨论了各种同化方法,以及使用各种同化因子的优缺点。最后,通过CHAMP卫星的观测实例分析,验证了GPS数据在数值天气预报(NWP)中的作用,以及相对于标准反演法一维变分对气象要素的改进。     

Comet nuclei: Morphology and implied processes of surface modification

Surface morphology and related issues for nuclei of three comets: Halley, Borrelly and Wild 2, are considered in the paper. Joint consideration of publications and results of our analysis of the comets’ images led to conclusions, partly new, partly repeating conclusions published by other researchers. It was found that typical for all three nuclei is the presence of rather flat areas: floors of craters and other depressions, mesas and terraces. This implies that flattening surfaces or planation is a process typical for the comet nuclei. Planation seems to work through the sublimation-driven slope collapse and retreat. This requires effective sublimation so this process should work only when a comet is close to the Sun and if on the nucleus there are starting slopes, steep and high enough to support the “long-distance” avalanching of the collapsing material. If the surface had no starting slopes, then instead of planation, the formation of pitted-and-hilly surfaces should occur. An example of this could be the mottled terrain of the Borelly nucleus. Both ways of the sublimational evolution on the nucleus surface should lead to accumulation of cometary regolith. The thickness of the degassed regolith is not known, but it is obvious that in surface depressions, including the flat-floor ones, it should be larger compared with nondepression areas. This may have implications for the in situ study of comets by the Deep Impact and Rosetta missions.Our morphological analysis puts constraints on the applicability of the popular “rubble-pile comet nucleus” hypothesis (Weissman, 1986. Are cometery nuclei primordial rubble piles? Nature 320, 242-244.). We believe that the rubble pile hypothesis can be applicable to the blocky Halley nucleus. The Borelly and Wild 2 nuclei also could be rubble piles. But in these cases the “rubbles” have to be either smaller than 30-50 m (a requirement to keep lineament geometry close to ideal), or larger than 1-2 km (a requirement to form the rather extended smooth, flat surfaces of mesa tops and crater floors). Another option is that the Borelly and Wild 2 nuclei are not rubble piles.In relation to surface morphology we suggest that three end-member types of the comet nuclei may exist: (1) impact cratered “pristine” bodies, (2) non-cratered fragments of catastrophic disruption, and (3) highly Sun-ablated bodies. In this threefold classification, the Wild 2 nucleus is partially ablated primarily cratered body. Borrelly is significantly ablated and could be either primarily cratered or not-cratered fragment. Halley is certainly partially ablated but with the available images it is difficult to say if remnants of impact craters do exist on it.Recently published observations and early results of analysis of the Tempel 1 nucleus images taken by Deep Impact mission are in agreement with our conclusions on the processes responsible for the Halley, Borrelly and Wild 2 nuclei morphologies. In particular, we have now more grounds to suggest that decrease in crater numbers and increase of the role of smooth flat surfaces in the sequence Wild 2?Tempel 1?Borelli reflects a progress in the sublimational degradation of the nucleus surface during comet passages close to the Sun.     

GEOGRAPHY ON THE PLANETS: GIFT OF REMOTE SENSING*

Extraterrestrial geography has become a reality, as we move from Earth's moon to the planets. A broad-scale regional physiography is being established on twenty planets and satellites through remote sensing techniques. Spacecraft images yield most of the information on Solar System landscapes. Topographic measurements are extracted by monoscopic image-processing, stereophotogrammetry, and radar analysis. Invisible parts of the spectrum furnish non-topographic data.     

Modelling Gas And Dust Release From Comet Hale–Bopp

Numerical simulations of the evolving activity of comet Hale-Bopp are presented, assuming a porous, spherical nucleus, 20 km in radius, made of dust and gas-laden amorphous ice. The main effects included are: crystallization of amorphous ice and release of occluded gas, condensation, sublimation and flow of gases through the pores, changing pore sizes, and flow of dust grains. The model parameters, such as initial pore size and porosity, emissivity, dust grain size, are varied in order to match the observed activity. In all cases, a sharp rise in the activity of the nucleus occurs at a large heliocentric distance pre-perihelion, marked by a few orders of magnitude increase in the CO and the CO₂ fluxes and in the rate of dust emission. This is due to the onset of crystallization, advancing down to a few meters below the surface, accompanied by release of the trapped gases. A period of sustained, but variable, activity ensues. The emission of water molecules is found to surpass that of CO at a heliocentric distance of 3 AU. Thereafter the activity is largely determined by the behaviour of the dust. If a dust mantle is allowed to build up, the water production rate does not increase dramatically towards perihelion; if most of the dust is ejected, the surface activity increases rapidly, producing a very bright comet. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.