台风“利奇马”不同强降水中心的雨滴谱特征分析

在2019年台风“利奇马”台风暖区、台风与西风槽相互作用区及西风槽影响区分别挑选4个极端强降水中心,利用各站连续观测分钟雨滴谱资料和分钟降水资料,分析了不同站点和不同降水时段的雨滴尺度谱、雨滴速度谱、雨滴尺度—时间谱和雨滴速度—时间谱特征,研究了雨滴谱特征随时间的变化。结果表明:4个降水中心的雨滴尺度—时间谱和雨滴速度—时间谱存在明显差异,而过程的统计谱特征差异不明显;过程中不同区域的站点、同一站点不同的降水时段,雨滴尺度谱和雨滴速度谱主要为双峰型,尺度谱双峰中各站对应1.2 mm直径峰的位置一致,处于较小尺度峰的位置不一致;在较大雨强时,雨滴尺度谱上会出现单峰和三峰的情况,但比例较少;1.2 mm雨滴的高浓度区域与地面降水强度有非常好的对应关系,在1.2 mm雨滴的高浓度区域形成的过程中,地面降水逐渐增强,随着1.2 mm雨滴的高浓度区域逐渐瓦解,地面降水逐渐减弱,直至出现间歇。     

基于PS-DR-DP理论模型的区域资源环境承载力综合评价（英文）

The concepts of regional resources and environmental carrying capacity are important aspects of both academic inquiry and government policy. Although notable results have been achieved in terms of evaluating both these variables, most researchers have utilized a traditional analytical method that incorporates the "pressure-state-response" model. A new approach is proposed in this study for the comprehensive evaluation of regional resources and environmental carrying capacity; applying a "pressure-support", "destructiveness-resilience", and "degradation-promotion"("PS-DR-DP") hexagon interaction theoretical model, we divided carrying capacity into these three pairs of interactive forces which correspond with resource supporting ability, environmental capacity, and risk-disaster resisting ability, respectively. Negative carrying capacity load in this context was defined to include pressure, destructiveness, and degradation, while support, resilience, and promotion comprised positive attributes. The status of regional carrying capacity was then determined via the ratio between positive and negative contribution values, expressed in terms of changes in both hexagonal shape and area that result from interactive forces. In order to test our "PS-DR-DP" theory-based model, we carried out a further empirical study on Beijing over the period between 2010 and 2015. Analytical results also revealed that the city is now close to attaining a perfect state for both resources and environmental carrying capacity; the latter state in Beijing increased from 1.0143 to 1.1411 between 2010 and 2015, an improved carrying capacity despite the fact that population increased by two million. The average contribution value also reached 0.7025 in 2015, indicating that the city approached an optimal loading threshold at this time but still had space for additional carrying capacity. The findings of our analysis provide theoretical support to enable the city of Beijing to control population levels below 23 million by 2020.     

深部地质结构对浅层地质与成矿作用的制约——以中国东部大陆及海区为例

根据十余年来参加中国岩石圈三维结构研究和国际合作编图资料,将深部地质结构与浅层地质、成矿特征进行统一的综合分析研究,对中国东部及邻近海域地质构造取得一些新认识,提出一些新观点:(1)在中国大陆及邻近海域400 km深度内,划分出5层地质结构,其中第3、4层之间的变化制约了浅层地质与成矿作用;(2)中国大陆及海区受周边动力挤压,其中西部挤压力大于东部,导致西部软流圈物质经4条路径向东流动,使东部汇聚巨大巨厚的软流圈,形成独特的软流圈巨量热能(力)-动力主体动力区,构成了亚洲大陆第4个主体动力区;(3)太平洋板块俯冲力制约了北纬42°40'以北的完达山及俄罗斯远东地区,菲律宾海板块俯冲力制约了台湾和中国东南沿海地区,二者的动力之和构成了阻挡软流圈物质向东部洋区流动的"远程力效应";(4)软流圈巨量热能(力)-动力作用的主体动力区打造了中国东部及海区7项地质、地貌特征和三大类矿产资源效应。其中岩浆活动与化石燃料矿产(石油、天然气、煤)之间不是"水火不相容",而是岩浆活动为提升油-气成熟度和煤化作用及变质作用提供了重要的温度条件;(5)软流圈巨量热能(力)-动力作用打造了中国东部及海区一些独有的地质作用:①形成了新生代南海小洋盆,并向巴拉望岛俯冲。②产生了新生代陆缘裂谷带,形成了琼州海峡、台湾海峡,并向台湾岛轻度俯冲。③大面积的巨厚软流圈是一座"巨型岩浆山",成为东部及海区"地幔柱"的统一"根基"。地幔柱实际上是巨大"岩浆山"中的"岩浆山峰",今后会发现更多"地幔柱"(即"岩浆山峰")。④中国东部地震除吉林省珲春地区的深源地震(540 km)外,朝鲜半岛及其以西的中国东部和海区均为浅源与中深源地震(震源深度小于100 km),其主体动力都来自本区巨量热能(力)-动力源,太平洋板块-菲律宾海板块的联合俯冲力只起了"远程力效应"的深部侧向挤压辅助作用。⑤巨量热能(力)-动力作用形成了一系列盆-山耦合带,组成了中国东部及海区中-新生代"盆-山耦合群","盆"里有油气资源,"山"里有内生矿产。     

中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易及其影响因素

利用拓展贸易引力模型,借助Eviews等工具分析了影响中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易规模的因素,以及中国对外直接投资的滞后性对双边贸易的影响。结果表明：1）中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易规模受到经济发展水平、市场规模、政治制度、贸易畅通性、便利性、中国对外直接投资、民间文化交流紧密度的影响;2）中国对外直接投资对于带动中国与“一带一路”沿线国家间的贸易规模具有正向作用,但其效应具有一定滞后性;3）中国对外直接投资对于带动中国与不同“一带一路”沿线国家贸易规模的引力大小不同,可分为投资带动力巨大型、投资带动型、投资一般型、投资带动力不足型4种类型,中国与东南亚、西亚和撒哈拉以南的非洲国家贸易规模受中国对外直接投资带动作用较强。     

Importance of hydrogeological conditions during formation of the karstic bauxite deposits,Central Guizhou Province,Southwest China: A case study at Lindai deposit

Karstic bauxite deposits are widespread in Central Guizhou Province, SW China, and high-grade ores are frequently sandwiched with overlying coal and underlying iron-rich layers and form a special “coal–bauxite–iron” structure. The Lindai deposit, which is one of the most representative karstic bauxite deposits in Central Guizhou Province, was selected as a case study. Based on textural features and iron abundances, bauxite ores in the Lindai deposit are divided into three types of ores, i.e., clastic, compact, and high-iron. The bauxite ores primarily comprise diaspore, boehmite, kaolinite, illite, and hematite with minor quartz, smectite, pyrite, zircon, rutile, anatase, and feldspar. The Al₂O₃ (53–76.8 wt.%) is the main chemical contents of the bauxite ore samples in the Lindai district, followed by SiO₂, Fe₂O₃, TiO₂, CaO, MgO, S, and P etc. Our geological data on the Lindai deposit indicated that the ore-bearing rock series and its underlying stratum have similar rare earth elements distribution pattern and similar Y/Ho, Zr/Hf, and Eu/Eu¹ values; additionally, all ore-bearing rock samples are rich in MgO (range from 0.16 wt.% to 0.68 wt.%), and the plots of the dolomites and laterites lie almost on or close to the weathering line fit by the Al-bearing rocks in Zr vs. Hf and Nb vs. Ta diagrams; suggesting that the underlying Middle Cambrian Shilengshui Formation dolomite is the parent rock of bauxite resources in the Lindai district.Simulated weathering experiments on the modern laterite from the Shilengshui Formation dolomite in the Lindai bauxite deposit show that hydrogeological conditions are important for karstic bauxite formation: Si is most likely to migrate, its migration rate is several magnitudes higher than those of Al and Fe under natural conditions; the reducing inorganic acid condition is the most conducive to Al enrichment and Si removal; Fe does not migrate easily in groundwater, Al enrichment and Fe removal can occur only in acidic and reducing conditions with the presence of organic matter.The geological and experimental studies show that “coal–bauxite–iron” structure in Lindai deposit is formed under certain hydrogeological conditions, i.e., since lateritic bauxite or Al-rich laterite deposited upon the semi-closed karst depressions, Si can be continuously removed out under neutral/acidic groundwater conditions; the coal/carbonaceous rock overlying the bauxitic materials were easily oxidized to produce acidic (H₂S, H₂SO₄, etc.) and reductant groundwater with organic materials that percolated downward, resulting in enrichment of Al in underlying bauxite; it also reduced Fe³⁺ to its easily migrating form Fe²⁺, moving downward to near the basal carbonate culminated in precipitating of ferruginous (FeS₂, FeCO₃, etc.) strata of the “coal–bauxite–iron” structure. Thus, the bauxitic materials experienced Al enrichment and Si and Fe removal under above certain hydrogeological conditions forming the high-quality bauxite.     

“五江一河”的洪水特征及其对跨流域调水量的制约——三评“红旗河工程”构想

在上文阐明"五江一河"径流量的年际变化及各节点具体径流量要比"红旗河工程"构想少得多的基础上,本文依据前人资料和成果,进一步阐述这些河流的径流量,在年内分配的不均匀性与洪水特征,及其对跨流域调水量的制约作用。研究表明:"五江一河"在11月到翌年4月,径流量只占全年总径流量的12.09%~21.84%,月均只有2.01%~3.64%,为冬、春季枯水期。其径流量只比拟调水比例20%或21%的月均值1.67%或1.75%略多。如此之少的水量,只能维系流域内的生态、生产及生活用水,而不能跨流域调水。何况"红旗河"中、下游在冬季结冰期也难以进行调水。每年6月份到9月份的4个月,"五江一河"径流量占全年径流量的53.3%~88.3%,甚至8月份的月径流量可达全年总径流量的17.8%~29.6%,属于汛期。根据径流量的实际数据,一年当中可供调水时间段只有丰水与平水期的6个月或汛期的3~4个月,要比"红旗河工程"构想的全年调水的时间大大缩短。在可资跨流域调水的每年5—10月份的时间窗口中,如果按原构想的月均调水流量占年径流量的比例1.67%(按20%计)或1.75%(按21%计)进行调水,则"五江一河"的年调水总量仅为153.25×10^8m^3(按20%计)或161.50×10^8m^3(按21%计)。仅为原构想调水量600亿m^3的1/4,充其量不足27%。在丰水与平水期的6个月中实现年径流量20%或21%的年调水比例,就意味将月调水比例从占年径流量的1.67%或1.75%增加为3.33%或3.50%。这样,"五江一河"的年调水总量可达到306.50×10^8m^3或323.00×10^8 m^3。此调水方案,导致调水河道截面积或工程规模增加一倍,但调水量也只有原构想的大约一半或至多54%。如果将调水目标强行设定为600亿m^3,那么"五江一河"的调水比例将提高到占年径流量的27.1%(南水北调西线工程开展前),或除金沙江和雅砻江之外的其它调水河流的39.0%(南水北调西线工程完成后),"红旗河"的建设规模势必大大增加,这也意味着工程难度大大增加,意味着工程建设与运行成本大大增加,意味着洪水、地震与地质灾害的危险性大大增加。"五江一河"实际可调水量比"红旗河"构想严重减少,使人不禁会对"红旗河"工程立论的科学基础和科学依据提出质疑。     

带桩筏基系统的弹塑性分析与设计方法研究

采用ABAQUS有限元程序中的线性扩展D-P模型对带桩筏基下的地基土进行弹塑性模拟,建立了带桩筏基系统的ABAQUS程序三维有限元模型。经比较各种桩、筏基础的内力与沉降关系计算结果,得到了带桩筏基的一些工作特性。在此基础上结合《建筑地基基础设计规范》(GB5007-2002),改进了传统的复合桩基设计方法,讨论了“三阶段”设计理念的可行性,并将其应用于工程实例。分析结果表明,改进的复合桩基设计方法和“三阶段”设计方法较常规设计方法更加经济合理。     

断裂输导油气的机制及侧向分流控制因素探讨

断裂是具有复杂内部结构的地质体,是地下油气运移的重要通道。断裂可向空间各个方向输导油气,其中,纵向输导加侧向分流是断裂输导油气成藏的基本方式。在断裂活动周期的不同阶段,断裂输导油气的机制存在差异,特点也不尽相同;用圈闭充满度作为评定侧向分流强度的依据,分别比较储层、上覆泥岩、断层各要素与其相关性,综合评定认为上覆泥岩厚度是控制侧向分流的主要因素,储层厚度次之;总结认为,断裂输导具有“断-盖”联控的特点;珠一坳陷断裂输导成藏具有“双峰型”特征,区域性盖层与输导机制耦合控制了充注高峰分布。     

Terrestrial heat flow and lithospheric thermal structure in the Chagan Depression of the Yingen-Ejinaqi Basin,north central China

The Chagan Depression in the Yingen-Ejinaqi Basin, located at the intersection of the Paleo-Asian Ocean and the Tethys Ocean domains is an important region to gain insights on terrestrial heat flow, lithospheric thermal structure and deep geodynamic processes. Here, we compute terrestrial heat flow values in the Chagan Depression using a large set of system steady-state temperature data from four representative wells and rock thermal conductivity. We also estimate the “thermal” lithospheric thickness, mantle heat flow, ratio of mantle heat flow to surface heat flow and Moho temperature to evaluate the regional tectonic framework and deep dynamics. The results show that the heat flow in the Chagan Depression ranges from 66.5 to 69.8 mW/m², with an average value of 68.3 ± 1.2 mW/m². The Chagan Depression is characterized by a thin “thermal” lithosphere, high mantle heat flow, and high Moho temperature, corresponding to the lithospheric thermal structure of “cold mantle and hot crust” type. We correlate the formation of the Yingen-Ejinaqi Basin to the Early Cretaceous and Cenozoic subduction of the western Pacific Plate and the Cenozoic multiple extrusions. Our results provide new insights into the thermal structure and dynamics of the lithospheric evolution in central China.     

极地冰层回转钻进切削热量测试装置的研制

极地冰盖深部“暖冰”层钻进时,由于冰层的温度较高,接近甚至达到冰的压力熔点,回转钻进时产生的切削热量极易使冰屑融化,导致机械钻速慢、取心率低、卡钻事故频发。钻压、转速、切削具结构等参数均对切削热量有一定的影响,有必要设计一套实验装置对切削热量进行测试,从而为设计切削具结构、优化钻进参数组合提供理论依据。以XY-1型岩心钻机钻进系统为平台,利用无线信号传输原理设计了冰层回转钻进切削热量测试实验台。初步测试结果表明,该实验装置能够准确测量钻压、扭矩、切削温度等参数,可用来进行相关的实验研究。