提高新一代天气雷达在临近预报中准确率的分析

文章应用新一代天气雷达资料,并结合天气图、T-logp图等资料,对发生于2011年6月13日内蒙古西部巴彦淖尔市东部地区的一次局地强对流天气过程进行了分析。通过分析雷达冰雹概率、垂直累积含水量、回波顶高、风暴追踪信息等产品以及自动站天气实况等发现,用于短时临近预报的雷达冰雹概率及风暴追踪信息产品在该次强对流天气过程中与天气实况并不能很好地符合。其原因:一方面与雷达对风暴的跟踪和SCIT算法有关,另一方面表明天气背景以及短时强对流天气所具有局地性特点在短时临近预报中未能充分考虑。通过该个例的分析,对于业务人员认识本地区的强对流天气发生特点并提高预报准确率具有重要意义。     

冬春季黄海温度锋面的多时间尺度变化及主控因素分析

海洋锋面强度变化对陆源物质输运和全球物质循环有重要作用。冬春季节,中国东部陆架区西太平洋边界流分支与沿岸流之间形成了海洋温度锋。为探究冬季风暴和陆架环流双重影响下温度锋面的多时间尺度变化及主控因素,本文以黄海为研究区,分别在年代际尺度和天气尺度,利用信号分解和可解释深度学习方法,研究了低纬度驱动的环流系统和高纬度驱动的冬季风暴对锋面变化的耦合作用。在年代际尺度,通过使用经验正交函数分解和集合经验模态分解的方法,将北黄海的温度变化与黄海暖流强度相联系。研究结果表明,黄海的海表温度经验正交函数（EOF）分解第一模态的空间分布有明显的黄海暖流—沿岸流体系特征;海表温度EOF第一模态时间序列与黄海暖流强度指标的相关性良好,且受低频率厄尔尼诺‒南方涛动信号调控。在天气尺度,对卷积神经网络−长短时记忆网络（CNN-LSTM）模型进行训练并使用可解释性指标进行分析,结果发现无风或弱风条件下,海洋锋面主要由压力梯度力和科里奥利力的地转平衡维持;但在冬季风暴条件下,受开尔文波传播和切变锋破碎的影响,流场的低频波动成为导致锋面强度变化的主因。本文研究结果表明,大数据及机器学习方法是在众多海洋参数间建立联系,并发现一些独特物理海洋过程的重要手段,具有广阔的应用前景。     

我国北方区域沙尘天气的时间特征分析

将我国北方沙尘主要影响区划分为3个区（西北区、华北区、东北区）,用网格面积加权计算区域平均的方法,比较了各区沙尘天气的时间演化特征。结果表明：西北部沙尘日数的量级明显多于东北部;沙尘暴的发生有比较明显的日变化特征,各区白天较夜间更易发生沙尘暴,2区（华北区）和3区（东北区）发生沙尘暴初始时刻的峰值出现在14：00,1区（西北区）出现在15：00～16：00;2区和3区出现沙尘天气的极值在4月,而1区在4、5两个月都是极值期;春季是各区沙尘天气的多发期,1区夏季沙尘天气发生的频次也较高;各区的沙尘日数均在20世纪80年代中期前后发生了由多到少的跃变,1区和2区的突变点在1987年,3区在1983年。我国北方3个区沙尘天气的日、月、季节变化有明显的区域特征,其中1区表现得较为独特,2区和3区则比较接近。     

中国区域GPS单频点定位在不同类型磁暴主相期间定位性能分析

地磁暴期间,电离层可出现不同程度的扰动,显著影响GNSS导航系统性能.本文针对GNSS系统应用需求,全面分析了不同等级磁暴主相期间GPS单频点定位精度在中国区域(地磁中、低纬地区)的受扰情况.结果表明,定位误差极端值的出现概率与磁暴等级呈正相关,也与测站纬度相关(低纬一般高于高纬),定位精度在U(垂直)方向受影响程度明...     

2003年10～11月的大磁暴

分析了引起2003年10～11月发生的3个特大磁暴的太阳活动、行星际扰动以及中国东部地磁台链记录到的地面磁场变化。结果表明,这3个特别大的磁暴是由太阳质量抛射事件引起的。太阳向着地球喷发出的大量等离子体引起的强烈太阳风扰动和持续长时间的南向行星际磁场与磁层相互作用形成了特别大的磁暴。ACE卫星、GOES卫星以及地面地磁台站较完整地记录了这3次日地扰动传输过程。对于每一个磁暴,中国东部地磁台链记录到的H分量变化形态一致,纬度最高的满洲里地磁台H幅度最大,而其他台站的幅度与纬度无明显关系,这表明磁暴的发展不完全由赤道环电流引起,在这样强烈的磁暴期间,磁层内的电流体系非常复杂。     

Changes in post world war ii distribution and status of monsoon rainforests in the Darwin area

Monsoon rainforests in the Darwin area occur as isolated patches ranging in size from 2 to 112 ha. Aerial photographic records over a 45 year period indicate a 60 per cent reduction in the cover of pre‐1945 rainforest. Urban development, cyclone damage, weed invasion and wildfire were identified as the major causes of this contraction. Urban development contributed 40 per cent of the total rainforest loss during this period. Rainforests occurring on dry substrates have been most affected by urban development. Cyclonic storm damage and indirect human affects such as weed invasion and anthropogenic fires continue to disturb the remaining rainforest patches. Although the largest expanses of rainforest presently occur within parks and reserves, providing adequate protection from further urban encroachment, smaller remnants occurring on vacant crown land are vulnerable to changes in land use. As well as the introduction of appropriate legislation, the control of fire and weeds should be given the highest priority by land managers to ensure the stability and long‐term maintenance of this remnant vegetation.     

The effect of magnetic substorms on near-ground atmospheric current

Ionosphere-magnetosphere disturbances at high latitudes, e.g. magnetic substorms, are accompanied by energetic particle precipitation and strong variations of the ionospheric electric fields and currents. These might reasonably be expected to modify the local atmospheric electric circuit. We have analysed air-earth vertical currents (AECs) measured by a long wire antenna at Esrange, northern Sweden during 35 geomagnetic substorms. Using superposed epoch analysis we compare the air-earth current variations during the 3 h before and after the time of the magnetic X-component minimum with those for corresponding local times on 35 days without substorms. After elimination of the average daily variation we can conclude that the effect of substorms on AEC is small but distinguishable. It is speculated that the AEC increases observed during about 2 h prior to the geomagnetic X-component minimum, are due to enhancement of the ionospheric electric field. During the subsequent 2 h of the substorm recovery phase, the difference between substorm and quiet atmospheric currents decreases. The amplitude of this substorm variation of AEC is estimated to be less than 50% of the amplitude of the diurnal variation in AEC during the same time interval. The statistical significance of this result was confirmed using the Van der Waerden X-test. This method was further used to show that the average air-earth current and its fluctuations increase during late expansion and early recovery phases of substorms.     

A Synoptic Climatology of Severe Storms in Virginia*

A synoptic climatology is developed for Virginia using 21 years of late spring and summer surface and upper air observations. The climatology is produced by applying a combination of principal components analysis and cluster analysis such that each day is classified into one of a distinct number of synoptic situations. Days on which at least one severe storm occurred in Virginia are merged with the synoptic climatology. A majority of severe storms are associated with one synoptic situation distinguished by moderate instability and a high moisture content.     

“地球空间双星探测计划”及其与全球环境变化的关系

本文论述了“地球空间双星探测计划”(简称双星计划)及其与全球环境变化的关系。地球空间双星探测计划包括两颗小卫星,分别运行于目前国际上地球空间探测卫星尚未覆盖的近地赤道区和近地极区。双星计划的主要科学目标是用高分辨率的仪器在近地空间的主要活动区探测场和粒子的时空变化;研究磁层空间暴(磁层亚暴、磁暴和磁层粒子暴)的触发机制及其对太阳活动和行星际扰动的响应过程;建立地球空间环境的动态模式。为了实现科学目标,赤道区卫星和极区卫星上各载有8台探测仪器。近地赤道区卫星的轨道是:近地点550km左右,远地点60000km左右,倾角约28.5°;近地极区卫星的轨道是:近地点700km,远地点40000km,倾角约90°。为了使双星计划与欧洲空间局ClusterII卫星相配合,赤道区卫星计划于2003年6月发射,极区卫星计划于2003年12月发射。双星计划与ClusterII卫星相配合,可形成地球空间6点探测计划,这将成为21世纪初国际上重要的地球空间探测计划。本文概要讨论了双星计划与地球系统各圈层的关系,包括与大气圈、生物圈、地球内部各圈层及全球环境变化的关系。     

Equatorial and low latitude ionosphere during intense geomagnetic storms

An investigation is made in order to analyse the role of neutral gas composition in the equatorial and low latitude ionosphere during intense geomagnetic storms. To this end data taken by the Dynamic Explorer 2 satellite at 280–300 km (molecular nitrogen N₂ and atomic oxygen O concentrations, electron density and vertical plasma drifts) are used. The sudden commencements of the events considered occurred at 11:38 UT on March 1, 1982, 18:41 UT on November 20, 1982 and 16:14 UT on February 4, 1983. Vertical plasma drifts are the most important contributor to the initial storm time response of the equatorial F region. Neutral composition changes (expressed as an increase in the molecular species, mainly N₂) possibly play a predominant role in the equatorial and low latitude (10–20°) decreases of electron density at heights near F2-region maximum during the main and recovery phases of intense geomagnetic storms. Delayed increases of electron density observed at daytime during the recovery phase may be also attributed to increases in atomic oxygen. At low latitudes possibly a combined effect of O increase and upward plasma drift due to enhanced equatorward winds is the responsible mechanism for the maintenance of enhanced electron density values.