The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.
Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making. 相似文献
The deposit size frequency (DSF) method has been developed as a generalization of the method that was used in the National Uranium Resource Evaluation (NURE) program to estimate the uranium endowment of the United States. The DSF method overcomes difficulties encountered during the NURE program when geologists were asked to provide subjective estimates of (1) the endowed fraction of an area judged favorable (factorF) for the occurrence of undiscovered uranium deposits and (2) the tons of endowed rock per unit area (factorT) within the endowed fraction of the favorable area. Because the magnitudes of factorsF andT were unfamiliar to nearly all of the geologists, most geologists responded by estimating the number of undiscovered deposits likely to occur within the favorable area and the average size of these deposits. The DSF method combines factorsF andT into a single factor (F·T) that represents the tons of endowed rock per unit area of the undiscovered deposits within the favorable area. FactorF·T, provided by the geologist, is the estimated number of undiscovered deposits per unit area in each of a number of specified deposit-size classes. The number of deposit-size classes and the size interval of each class are based on the data collected from the deposits in known (control) areas. The DSF method affords greater latitude in making subjective estimates than the NURE method and emphasizes more of the everyday experience of exploration geologists. Using the DSF method, new assessments have been made for the young, organic-rich surficial uranium deposits in Washington and idaho and for the solution-collapse breccia pipe uranium deposits in the Grand Canyon region in Arizona and adjacent Utah. 相似文献
Earthquake hazard maps for Syria are presented in this paper. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) on bedrock, both with 90% probability of not being exceeded during a life time of 50, 100 and 200 years, respectively are developed. The probabilistic PGA and MMI values are evaluated assuming linear sources (faults) as potential sources of future earthquakes. A new attenuation relationship for this region is developed. Ten distinctive faults of potential earthquakes are identified in and around Syria. The pertinent parameters of each fault, such as theb-parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter formula, the annual rate
4 and the upper bound magnitudem1 are determined from two sets of seismic data: the historical earthquakes and the instrumentally recorded earthquake data (AD 1900–1992). The seismic hazard maps developed are intended for preliminary analysis of new designs and seismic check of existing civil engineering structures. 相似文献
Hydrologic model parameters obtained from regional regression equations are subject to uncertainty. Consequently, hydrologic
model outputs based on the stochastic parameters are random. This paper presents a systematic analysis of uncertainty associated
with the two parameters, N and K, in Nash's IUH model from different regional regression equations. The uncertainty features
associated with N and K are further incorporated to assess the uncertainty of the resulting IUH. Numerical results indicate
that uncertainty of N and K from the regional regression equations are too significant to be ignored. 相似文献
Hydrologic model parameters obtained from regional regression equations are subject to uncertainty. Consequently, hydrologic
model outputs based on the stochastic parameters are random. This paper presents a systematic analysis of uncertainty associated
with the two parameters, N and K, in Nash's IUH model from different regional regression equations. The uncertainty features
associated with N and K are further incorporated to assess the uncertainty of the resulting IUH. Numerical results indicate
that uncertainty of N and K from the regional regression equations are too significant to be ignored. 相似文献