基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

RECENT TECTONIC DEFORMATION ANOMALY AND EARTHQUAKES IN GANSU-NINGXIA-QINGHAI AREA

1　IntroductionAccordingtogeologicalstructure ,theGansu Ningxia Qinghaiareabelongstothenortheastmar ginofQinghai Tibetblock .Thisareahasbeenpaidmuchattentionby geo specialistsinChinaandabroadbecauseofitssignificanttectonicmovement,itsintensiveseismicity ,anditsimportanceinearth quakehazardmitigation .IntheDevelopmentPro gramonNationalKeyBasicResearchesundertheProject“MechanismandPredictionofContinentalStrongEarthquakes”,themechanismsofcontinen talstrongearthquakesarestudied ,usinghypo…     

隧道工程地质评价的内容和方法

结合工程隧道实际,首先阐述了隧道工程的基本地质环境和工程地质条件,然后针对隧道工程可能出现的不良地质现象和可采取的工程措施,从大气降水、围岩稳定、围岩压力、洞口稳定、隧道比选等角度探讨隧道工程地质评价的主要方法和一般内容,进行隧道工程地质评价,为隧道施工、支护提供了依据.     

一种从经纬度网格资料获得正方形网格资料的插值方案

本文提出了一种把经纬度网格点上的气象要素值转化到正方形网格点上的多项式插值方案。对插值方案作了稳定性讨论和定量及定性分析。结果表明,这种插值方案方便可行,而且有广泛适用性。     

济宁市嘉祥县石灰岩矿山地质环境评价与治理

在对嘉祥县石灰岩矿进行地质灾害危险性评估、矿山环境地质问题评价的基础上,建立了一套评价体系,其中地质灾害危险性评估分为2个评价指标,矿山环境地质问题评价分为2种要素3个指标,同时将矿山恢复治理难易程度也作为一个评价因子。评价过程中对各指标危害性大、中、小程度均单独赋值,然后将各指标的分值进行叠加,确定出矿山环境地质问题的等级,将概划出的13个评价单元分为极差、差、一般3个区。提出了强化矿山管理、植树造林、科学避让、修建拦水坝等保护与治理措施及建议。     

影响鸢乌贼手钓上钩率的因子探讨

根据印度洋西北部鸢乌贼（Sym plectoteuthis oualaniensis）作业渔场的现场调查数据．分析了作业水深、作业时段、摄食等级和月相等因子对手钓上钩率的影响。统计表明．晚上、午夜和凌晨3个不同时段和不同作业水深对手钓上钩率均有显著性影响。3个时段中，其摄食等级呈先低后高再低的现象。午夜和凌展，上钩率的变化趋势与摄食等级的变化趋势呈显著的负相关。在月相的影响下．离朔日三四天之前，手钓产量呈上升趋势；离望日五六天之前。手钓产量呈明显的下降趋势。     

AGGLOMERATION AND RADIATION EFFECT OF THE PULL OF URBANIZATION

In order to explore the train of thought for China‘s urbanizing development and coordinated rural eco-nomic development, and to find good ways of solving rural problems through urbanization, this paper absorbs the push-and-pull forces theory and the systematic dynamic theory in the traditional population migration theories, views urbanization as a dynamic system, makes research on the push-and-pull mechanism of urbanization. The pulling power of urbanization is analyzed according to two aspects, the agglomeration effect and the radiation effect of cities. The agglomeration effect provides continuous propelling force for urbanization, and the radiation effect further accelerates the urbanization process by pushing forward the development of rural economy. Of course, the slow de-velopment of urbanization can result in the hindrance to rural economic development.     

基于蚁群算法的城市可持续发展综合评价

在可持续发展体系分类的基础上，应用蚁群算法对可持续发展各分类指数公式和综合指数公式进行优化，建立可持续发展评价模型。将该模型应用于乌鲁木齐市可持续发展水平评价，评价结果与现状分析一敛。结果表明该模型简单适用、有良好的通用性。     

Opposition polarimetry and photometry of S- and E-type asteroids

The first results of the observational program devoted to simultaneous investigation of asteroid polarimetric and photometric opposition phenomena are presented. UBVRI polarimetric and V-band photometric observations of the S-type Asteroid 20 Massalia and the E-type Asteroids 214 Aschera and 620 Drakonia were carried out in 1996-1999 down to phase angles of 0.08°, 0.7°, and 1.2°, correspondingly. The S-type Asteroid 20 Massalia is characterized by the pronounced brightness opposition surge with an amplitude larger than that observed for the E-type asteroids. A sharp peak of negative polarization at small phase angles was not observed for this asteroid. The value of polarization degree at phase angle α<1° is less than 0.5% for both S and E types. The negative polarization branches of S and especially E-asteroids have an asymmetrical shape. The phase angle at which the polarization minimum occurs is close to the angle at which non-linear increase begins in the asteroid magnitude phase curves. A relation of the observed effects to the mechanism of coherent backscattering is discussed.     

昆仑山口大地震与地形变异常的讨论

针对昆仑山口大地震，总结了多种地形变（大地测量）手段所显示的异常变化及其时空分布，结果显示：8．1级大震前存在空间尺度大，时间尺度的地形变前兆异常，简要介绍了相关的异常图像，给出了初步解释，并对未来震情的发展进行了探讨，认为近期内强震活动向华北迁移的可能性不大。