Simulating earthquake evacuation using human behavior models

In classical earthquake risk assessment, the human behavior is actually not taken into account in risk assessment. Agent‐based modeling is a simulation technique that has been applied recently in several fields, such as emergency evacuation. The paper is proposing a methodology that includes in agent‐based models the human behavior, considering the anxiety effects generated by the crowd and their influence on the evacuation delays. The proposed model is able to take into account the interdependency between the earthquake evacuation process, and the corresponding damage of structural and non‐structural components that is expressed in term of fragility curves. The software REPAST HPC has been used to implement the model, and as a case study, the earthquake evacuation by a mall located in Oakland has been used. The human behavior model has been calibrated through a survey using a miscellaneous sample from different countries. The model can be used to test future scenarios and help local authorities in situations where the human behavior plays a key role. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

平抚社会恐震心理化解预报科普困扰

一次具有社会影响的地震发生之后,很多人会问为什么,意即在这个地方、这个节骨眼儿,为啥会发生这样大小的地震?为及时回应社会关切,地震分析预报工作者或专家往往尽其所能在第一时间给出比较科学的解释,诸如"余震说""构造说""能量说".可是不少公众并不买账,提出更多问题或多方质疑,甚至伴随讽刺和调侃.例如,2020年"7?12...     

扩散性危机影响下公众心理韧性空间特征初探

当前危机管理研究多从公共管理、社会学和心理学等角度揭示恐慌发生的规律,鲜有研究揭示其地理时空特征。因此,从地理学的视角出发,利用百度搜索指数,探索公众恐慌心理的基本空间结构和变动特征,并尝试捕捉心理韧性的空间影响因素。主要得到3点结论:①在当前互联网高度通达的背景下,危机信息传播速度极快,由此引发的恐慌情绪已无明显空间扩散过程,而是瞬时传播至全国范围,且未出现明显的信息盲区;②距危机发生地的距离显著影响公众心理韧性,随着距离的增加,公众面对危机的恐慌心理没有呈现出距离衰减的空间规律,也不完全符合"心理台风眼"假说,而是呈现出以疫情较严重的地区为多个中心的涟漪状起伏的圈层结构,恐慌波动指数(PR Index)在1.112～1.947变动;③公众恐慌心理对危机信息的韧性差异,受信息类型和空间距离交互影响,表现为紊流状的空间异质结构。建议未来危机信息管理需要重视政策措施的空间区划,根据与危机发生地的空间关系,来决定重点发布何种信息,从而最大效度地减少公众恐慌。     

The Asymmetric Border: The United States’ Place in the World and the Refugee Panic of 2018

The year 2018 saw a moral panic in the United States in the media and among many citizens over the treatment of refugees/asylees at the U.S. southern border, particularly the separation and detention of children apart from their parents. This happened in the context of a period in U.S. political history in which “immigration,” without much discernment about different types of immigration, was central to political discourse. In fact, in terms of numbers, there was no immigration crisis at the border. Undocumented migration from Mexico across the southern border of the United States has been in decline for many years, and the irregular movement of people from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras is currently small by historical standards. The only crisis, to which the U.S. panic was a response, has been a human rights crisis. Families and children seeking asylum from horrendous civil‐rights conditions in their countries of origin were criminalized and denied their right to asylum hearings. The panic points both to the extreme politicization of immigration in the United States, particularly since Donald Trump's entry into national politics in 2015, and to popular confusion over categorizing different types of immigrants. But it also raises questions about the nature of the U.S. southern border in relation to the United States’ place in the world. Rather than thinking about the United States as simply the rich destination country of unfortunate people coming from poor origin countries, the refugee panic of 2018 brings into the focus the fact that the United States itself is complicit in the conditions in those countries that produce so many refugees in the first place.