基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

High-frequency monitoring of hydrological and biogeochemical fluxes in forested catchments of southern Chile

The variability of rainfall-dependent streamflow at catchment scale modulates many ecosystem processes in wet temperate forests. Runoff in small mountain catchments is characterized by a quick response to rainfall pulses which affects biogeochemical fluxes to all downstream systems. In wet-temperate climates, water erosion is the most important natural factor driving downstream soil and nutrient losses from upland ecosystems. Most hydrochemical studies have focused on water flux measurements at hourly scales, along with weekly or monthly samples for water chemistry. Here, we assessed how water and element flows from broad-leaved, evergreen forested catchments in southwestern South America, are influenced by different successional stages, quantifying runoff, sediment transport and nutrient fluxes during hourly rainfall events of different intensities. Hydrograph comparisons among different successional stages indicated that forested catchments differed in their responses to high intensity rainfall, with greater runoff in areas covered by secondary forests (SF), compared to old-growth forest cover (OG) and dense scrub vegetation (CH). Further, throughfall water was greatly nutrient enriched for all forest types. Suspended sediment loads varied between successional stages. SF catchments exported 455 kg of sediments per ha, followed by OG with 91 kg/ha and CH with 14 kg/ha, corresponding to 11 rainfall events measured from December 2013 to April 2014. Total nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP) concentrations in stream water also varied with rainfall intensity. In seven rainfall events sampled during the study period, CH catchments exported less nutrients (46 kg/ha TN and 7 kg/ha TP) than SF catchments (718 kg/ha TN and 107 kg/ha TP), while OG catchments exported intermediate sediment loads (201 kg/ha TN and 23 kg/ha TP). Further, we found significant effects of successional stage attributes (vegetation structure and soil physical properties) and catchment morphometry on runoff and sediment concentrations, and greater nutrients retention in OG and CH catchments. We conclude that in these southern hemisphere, broad-leaved evergreen temperate forests, hydrological processes are driven by multiple interacting phenomena, including climate, vegetation, soils, topography, and disturbance history.     

The isotopic signature of monsoon conditions,cloud modes,and rainfall type

This work provides a comprehensive physically based framework for the interpretation of the north Australian rainfall stable isotope record (δ¹⁸O and δ²H). Until now, interpretations mainly relied on statistical relationships between rainfall amount and isotopic values on monthly timescales. Here, we use multiseason daily rainfall stable isotope and high resolution (10 min) ground‐based C‐band polarimetric radar data and show that the five weather types (monsoon regimes) that constitute the Australian wet season each have a characteristic isotope ratio. The data suggest that this is not only due to changes in regional rainfall amount during these regimes but, more importantly, is due to different rain and cloud types that are associated with the large scale circulation regimes. Negative (positive) isotope anomalies occurred when stratiform rainfall fractions were large (small) and the horizontal extent of raining areas were largest (smallest). Intense, yet isolated, convective conditions were associated with enriched isotope values whereas more depleted isotope values were observed when convection was widespread but less intense. This means that isotopic proxy records may record the frequency of which these typical wet season regimes occur. Positive anomalies in paleoclimatic records are most likely associated with periods where continental convection dominates and convection is sea‐breeze forced. Negative anomalies may be interpreted as periods when the monsoon trough is active, convection is of the oceanic type, less electric, and stratiform areas are wide spread. This connection between variability of rainfall isotope anomalies and the intrinsic properties of convection and its large‐scale environment has important implications for all fields of research that use rainfall stable isotopes.     

RECENT TECTONIC DEFORMATION ANOMALY AND EARTHQUAKES IN GANSU-NINGXIA-QINGHAI AREA

1　IntroductionAccordingtogeologicalstructure ,theGansu Ningxia Qinghaiareabelongstothenortheastmar ginofQinghai Tibetblock .Thisareahasbeenpaidmuchattentionby geo specialistsinChinaandabroadbecauseofitssignificanttectonicmovement,itsintensiveseismicity ,anditsimportanceinearth quakehazardmitigation .IntheDevelopmentPro gramonNationalKeyBasicResearchesundertheProject“MechanismandPredictionofContinentalStrongEarthquakes”,themechanismsofcontinen talstrongearthquakesarestudied ,usinghypo…     

CHANGE OF NUTRIENT IMPORT AND EXPORT IN PROCESS OF RAINFALL IN AILAO MOUNTAIN OF YUNNAN PROVINCE

ＣＨＡＮＧＥ　ＯＦ　ＮＵＴＲＩＥＮＴ　ＩＭＰＯＲＴ　ＡＮＤ　ＥＸＰＯＲＴ　ＩＮ　ＰＲＯＣＥＳＳ　ＯＦ　ＲＡＩＮＦＡＬＬ　ＩＮ　ＡＩＬＡＯ　ＭＯＵＮＴＡＩＮ　ＯＦ　ＹＵＮＮＡＮ　ＰＲＯＶＩＮＣＥＧａｎＪｉａｎｍｉｎ（甘健民）；ＸｕｅＪｉｎｇｙｉ（薛敬意...     

一种从经纬度网格资料获得正方形网格资料的插值方案

本文提出了一种把经纬度网格点上的气象要素值转化到正方形网格点上的多项式插值方案。对插值方案作了稳定性讨论和定量及定性分析。结果表明,这种插值方案方便可行,而且有广泛适用性。     

昆仑山口大地震与地形变异常的讨论

针对昆仑山口大地震，总结了多种地形变（大地测量）手段所显示的异常变化及其时空分布，结果显示：8．1级大震前存在空间尺度大，时间尺度的地形变前兆异常，简要介绍了相关的异常图像，给出了初步解释，并对未来震情的发展进行了探讨，认为近期内强震活动向华北迁移的可能性不大。     

Identification of physical processes inherent in artificial neural network rainfall runoff models

The emergence of artificial neural network (ANN) technology has provided many promising results in the field of hydrology and water resources simulation. However, one of the major criticisms of ANN hydrologic models is that they do not consider/explain the underlying physical processes in a watershed, resulting in them being labelled as black‐box models. This paper discusses a research study conducted in order to examine whether or not the physical processes in a watershed are inherent in a trained ANN rainfall‐runoff model. The investigation is based on analysing definite statistical measures of strength of relationship between the disintegrated hidden neuron responses of an ANN model and its input variables, as well as various deterministic components of a conceptual rainfall‐runoff model. The approach is illustrated by presenting a case study for the Kentucky River watershed. The results suggest that the distributed structure of the ANN is able to capture certain physical behaviour of the rainfall‐runoff process. The results demonstrate that the hidden neurons in the ANN rainfall‐runoff model approximate various components of the hydrologic system, such as infiltration, base flow, and delayed and quick surface flow, etc., and represent the rising limb and different portions of the falling limb of a flow hydrograph. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

形变大地测量学的进展、问题与地震预报

简要概括了形变大地测量学的革命性进展，研讨了它的科学特色、功能和定义以及对地球科学和防灾减灾的推动。形变大地测量学有助于从根本上击破多年来制约地震预报的“瓶颈”，但也存在不少急待解决的问题。着重研讨了在21世纪前10年，形变大地测量学如何依托多年的学科积累并充分受益于人造卫星和数字化等新技术，开展创新性研究和试验以推进地震预报。为此，对当前的研究工作提出了12条科学技术途径。最后对学科名称提出了建议。     

NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC POLAR LOWS——A COMPARATIVE STUDY

Northern Hemispheric“polar lows”,i.e.maritime,small,but fairly intense cyclonic systems have been studied formore than two decades.Recently researchers have turned their attention towards the occurrence of polar lows and othersmall-scale cyclonic disturbances on the Southern Hemisphere.In this paper a short account of our present knowledgeof Northern Hemispheric polar lows will be given,followed by some preliminary results of an investigation of the natureand occurrence of polar lows on the Southern Hemisphere.