A methane fuse for the Cambrian explosion: carbon cycles and true polar wander

The dramatic diversification of animal groups known as the Cambrian Explosion (evolution's ‘Big Bang’) remains an unsolved puzzle in Earth Science. The Vendian–Cambrian interval is characterized by anomalously high rates of apparent plate motion, interpreted as True Polar Wander (TPW), and by more than a dozen large, high-frequency perturbations in carbon isotopes that dwarf all others observed through the past 65 million years. We suggest that these biological, tectonic, and geochemical events are intimately related in the following fashion. First, tropical continental margins and shelf-slopes which formed during fragmentation of the supercontinent Rodinia accumulated massive quantities of isotopically-light organic carbon during Late Neoproterozoic time, as indicated by strikingly heavy isotope ratios in inorganic carbon during interglacial intervals. Second, an initial phase of Vendian TPW moved these organic-rich deposits to high latitude, where conditions favored trapping biogenic methane in layers of gas hydrate and perhaps permafrost. Continued sedimentation during Late Vendian time added additional hydrate/gas storage volume and stabilized underlying units until the geothermal gradient moved them out of the clathrate stability field, building up deep reservoirs of highly pressurized methane. Finally, a burst of TPW brought these deposits back to the Tropics, where they gradually warmed and were subjected to regional-scale thermohaline eddy variation and related sedimentation regime changes. Responding to the stochastic character of such changes, each reservoir reached a critical failure point independently at times throughout the Cambrian. By analogy with the Late Paleocene Thermal Maximum event, these methane deposits yield transient, greenhouse-induced pulses of global warming when they erupt. Temperature correlates powerfully with biodiversity; the biochemical kinetics of metabolism at higher temperature decrease generation time and maintain relatively rich and dense invertebrate populations. Repeated thermal pulses along with progressive disruption and alteration of global ocean circulation patterns by TPW could cause the increase in diversity that accompanied the radiation of metazoans. We suggest that a methane ‘fuse’ ignited the Cambrian Evolutionary Explosion.     

Assessing uncertainties in a conceptual water balance model using Bayesian methodology / Estimation bayésienne des incertitudes au sein d’une modélisation conceptuelle de bilan hydrologique

Abstract

Abstract The aim of this study was to estimate the uncertainties in the streamflow simulated by a rainfall–runoff model. Two sources of uncertainties in hydrological modelling were considered: the uncertainties in model parameters and those in model structure. The uncertainties were calculated by Bayesian statistics, and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was used to simulate the posterior parameter distribution. The parameter uncertainty calculated by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was compared to maximum likelihood estimates which assume that both the parameters and model residuals are normally distributed. The study was performed using the model WASMOD on 25 basins in central Sweden. Confidence intervals in the simulated discharge due to the parameter uncertainty and the total uncertainty were calculated. The results indicate that (a) the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and the maximum likelihood method give almost identical estimates concerning the parameter uncertainty, and (b) the uncertainties in the simulated streamflow due to the parameter uncertainty are less important than uncertainties originating from other sources for this simple model with fewer parameters.     

Application of linear and nonlinear techniques in river flow forecasting in the Kilombero River basin,Tanzania / Application de techniques linéaires et non-linéaires à la prévision des débits dans le bassin de la Rivière Kilombero,en Tanzanie

Abstract

Modelling of the rainfall–runoff transformation process and routing of river flows in the Kilombero River basin and its five sub-catchments within the Rufiji River basin in Tanzania was undertaken using three system (black-box) models—a simple linear model, a linear perturbation model and a linear varying gain factor model—in their linear transfer function forms. A lumped conceptual model—the soil moisture accounting and routing model—was also applied to the sub-catchments and the basin. The HEC-HMS model, which is a distributed model, was applied only to the entire Kilombero River basin. River discharge, rainfall and potential evaporation data were used as inputs to the appropriate models and it was observed that sometimes the system models performed better than complex hydrological models, especially in large catchments, illustrating the usefulness of using simple black-box models in datascarce situations.     

Incorporating groundwater recharge and discharge functions into an existing monthly rainfall–runoff model/Incorporation de fonctions de recharge et de vidange superficielle de nappes au sein d’un modèle pluie-débit mensuel existant

Abstract

Abstract There is an urgent need for an integrated surface water and groundwater modelling tool that is suitable for southern African conditions and can be applied at various basin scales for broad strategic water resource planning purposes. The paper describes two new components (recharge and groundwater discharge) that have been added to an existing monthly time-step rainfall–runoff model that is widely used in the southern African subcontinent. The new components are relatively simple, consistent with the existing model formulation, but based on accepted groundwater flow principles and well understood groundwater parameters. The application of the revised model on two basins in southern Africa with quite different baseflow characteristics has demonstrated that the new components have a great deal of potential, even if the improvement is only to be able to simulate the groundwater baseflow component of total runoff more explicitly. More comprehensive testing and comparison of the results with existing groundwater and geohydrological data is required, while some extensions to the new components need to be considered to ensure that the model can be considered applicable to a wide range of basin and climate types.     

Multiple criteria rainfall–runoff model calibration using a parallel genetic algorithm in a cluster of computers / Calage multi-critères en modélisation pluie–débit par un algorithme génétique parallèle mis en œuvre par une grappe d'ordinateurs

Abstract

Genetic algorithms are among of the global optimization schemes that have gained popularity as a means to calibrate rainfall–runoff models. However, a conceptual rainfall–runoff model usually includes 10 or more parameters and these are interdependent, which makes the optimization procedure very time-consuming. This may result in the premature termination of the optimization process which will prejudice the quality of the results. Therefore, the speed of optimization procedure is crucial in order to improve the calibration quality and efficiency. A hybrid method that combines a parallel genetic algorithm with a fuzzy optimal model in a cluster of computers is proposed. The method uses the fuzzy optimal model to evaluate multiple alternatives with multiple criteria where chromosomes are the alternatives, whilst the criteria are flood performance measures. In order to easily distinguish the performance of different alternatives and to address the problem of non-uniqueness of optimum, two fuzzy ratios are defined. The new approach has been tested and compared with results obtained by using a two-stage calibration procedure. The current single procedure produces similar results, but is simpler and automatic. Comparison of results between the serial and parallel genetic algorithms showed that the current methodology can significantly reduce the overall optimization time and simultaneously improve the solution quality.     

Les chaînes de la marge occidentale du Craton Ouest-Africain,modèles géodynamiques

Until now, no satisfactory geodynamic model has been delivered concerning the three main West African orogens: Panafrican 1 (Bassaride belt), Panafrican 2 (Rokelide belt) and Hercynian (Mauritanide belt). However, since the last synthetic paper (Villeneuve, 2008), new geological, geophysical and geochronological data, from the Moroccan Sahara to Sierra Leone, allow us to propose a new geodynamical model. It includes the two Panafrican events in a single model very similar to the present western Pacific margin. An old “West African Neoproterozoic ocean” (WANO) was limited by a set of island arcs separated from the West African craton by a series of “back arc basins”. The closure of this first round of back arc basins around 650 Ma led to the Bassaride belt (Panafrican 1). Then the WANO was subducting underneath the island arcs (between 650 and 550 Ma) meanwhile a new generation of “back arc basins” opened to the east between the arcs and the craton margin. The closure of the WANO and associated island arcs and back arc basins (550 to 500 Ma) led to the Rokelide belt (Panafrican 2). The Hercynian structures involving a Palaeozoic cover (made with continental material) associated to a “greeenschist facies” metamorphism is ascribed to an intracontinental belt.     

FY-3A星MWHS反演中纬度和热带大气水汽

风云三号A星(FY-3A)搭载的微波湿度(MWHS)计采用双边带接收机体制,选择主要受水汽影响的(183.31±1) GHz,(183.31±3) GHz,(183.31±7) GHz和窗区150 GHz作为通道频率。本文首先分析了观测亮温值与利用辐射传输方程仿真的亮温值之间的关系,二者相比具有较好的一致性。其次利用神经网络方法反演大气相对湿度,并与线性回归方法进行对比,本文选用的区域内,神经网络方法优于线性回归法。最后,利用本文创建的神经网络模型与正在业务使用的AMSU-B反演模型进行反演均方差和稳定度对比,结果表明,本文创建的神经网络模型在所选区域,大气相对湿度反演精度与AMSU-B神经网络模型相当(反演均方差为15%-25%);水汽密度反演均方差除地面未知因素影响外,与探空观测相比,整体均方差小于1 g/m³;不论在中纬度地区还是热带地区,都能较好地反演大气湿度的垂直分布廓线。同时,本文初次尝试在神经网络反演湿度廓线中引入墨西哥帽小波函数,结果表明,运用墨西哥帽小波函数在保证反演性能的同时,能有效减小迭代时间,避免陷入局部迭代。     

On the Lu-Hf Isotope Geochemistry of Silicate Rocks

This paper reviews the history (TIMS, hot‐SIMS, MC‐ICP‐MS), significance, geochemical behaviour and current uncertainties (λ¹⁷⁶ Lu, Hf‐Nd Bulk Silicate Earth) surrounding the Lu‐Hf isotope system, and thus marks two decades of its application to geochemical problems. An appendix further presents (a) improvements to the original chemistry protocol of Blichert‐Toft et al. (1997) for application to Mg‐rich samples and (b) a compilation of previously published and new Hf isotope determinations by MC‐ICP‐MS for a set of international rock reference materials. Prior to the advent of multiple‐collector plasma source mass spectrometry (MC‐ICP‐MS), routine analysis of the Lu‐Hf isotope system developed only slowly because of the extreme difficulty of measuring Hf isotope compositions with thermal ionisation mass spectrometry, caused by the very high first ionisation potential of Hf. However, Hf isotope compositions can be measured relatively easily using MC‐ICP‐MS and this new technique now provides reproducible measurements at high precision regardless of the matrix from which Hf is separated. Of the commonly used long‐lived radiogenic isotope systems, only the Sm‐Nd and Lu‐Hf isotope systems are unaffected by parent/daughter fractionations related to volatile nebular processes and core formation. While other systems (Rb‐Sr, U‐Th‐Pb, Re‐Os) may also be used to investigate the chemical evolution of the Earth, Moon, Mars and parent bodies of differentiated meteorites, the larger uncertainties in their bulk chemical and isotopic values limit their application to determine geochemical budgets and assess planetary mantle‐crust evolution. In the study of garnet‐bearing rocks, both for dating purposes and as an isotopic tracer for source provenance and mantle processes, the Lu‐Hf isotope system likewise is of major interest because of the high partition coefficient of Lu compared to Hf for garnet with respect to other minerals. Furthermore, the larger Lu/Hf fractionation compared to Sm/Nd during melting beneath ridges produces proportionally higher Lu/Hf in the residue and faster in‐growth of a radiogenic Hf isotopic signature (compared to Nd), which may help shed light on the dynamics of mantle melting. While the chemistry protocol and mass spectrometric technique for high‐precision Lu‐Hf isotope analysis have been resolved in satisfactory ways over the past five years, more accurate determination of the decay constant for ¹⁷⁶ Lu, at present known with a precision of only about 4%, still needs to be completed and a consensus reached on which value to use for future Lu‐Hf isotope studies. Although the current combined Lu‐Hf and Sm‐Nd Bulk Silicate Earth parameters are plagued by possible incompatibilities in chondrite selection and potential interlaboratory biases, a more accurate set of values may not be readily established owing to heterogeneities in the isotopic composition of chondrites that far exceed present analytical accuracy.     

Relations entre la géométrie des zones de faille et quelques paramètres mécaniques : apport de modèles analogiques

Résumé

Les failles naturelles correspondent à des zones d’une certaine largeur, composées de fractures élémentaires en échelons. Plusieurs exemples de zones de failles, d’échelles très diverses, permettent de montrer que ces fractures élémentaires forment selon les cas différents types d’associations que l’on cherche à relier aux conditions mécaniques de formation de la zone de discontinuité.

Pour cela on réalise des modèles analogiques de zones de faille par cisaillement direct sur des argiles en faisant varier la contrainte normale, la teneur en eau et la vitesse de sollicitation.

On montre ainsi que l’accroissement de la contrainte normale à la zone de discontinuité qui se traduit par des fractures élémentaires correspondant à un comportement de plus en plus pseudo-plastique fait diminuer l’emprise de la zone et la longueur des fractures mais accroît leur nombre. Lorsque le matériau n’est pas saturé l’augmentation de la teneur en fluides a, sur la fracturation élémentaire un effet de même sens que celui de l’accroissement de a». Lorsque le matériau est saturé l’accroissement de la vitesse de sollicitation a un effet inverse de celui de l’augmentation de a?.     

Predicting landscape-scale erosion rates using digital elevation models

Functional relationships between erosion rates and topography are central to understanding controls on global sediment flux and interactions among tectonics, climate, and erosion in shaping topography. Based on such relations digital elevation models (DEMs) allow predicting landscape-scale erosion rates to the degree that process models can be calibrated and to the extent that such processes reflect elevation, drainage area, and aspect, or their derivatives such as slope and curvature. Digital elevation models allow investigating the influence of erosional processes on landscape form and evolution through generalized quantitative expressions often referred to as ‘erosion laws’. The analytical forms of such expressions are derived from physical principles, but only limited data are available to guide calibration to particular landscapes. In addition, few studies have addressed how different transport laws interact to set landscape-scale erosion rates in different environments. Conventionally, landscape-scale sediment flux is considered to be linearly related to slope or relief, but recent analyses point toward non-linear relations for steep terrain in which changes in the frequency of landsliding accommodate increased rates of rock uplift. In such situations, landscape-scale erosion rates are more closely tied to erosion potential predicted by models of bedrock river incision. Consequently, I propose that using DEMs to predict absolute or relative erosion rates at the landscape-scale counter-intuitively involves the rate of fluvial processes as governing the sediment flux from steep landscapes, and rates of hillslope processes as governing sediment flux from low-gradient landscapes. To cite this article: D.R. Montgomery, C. R. Geoscience 335 (2003).