OBSERVATIONS ON THE HINTEREIS AND VERNAGTFERNER

Abstract

Adequate water resources management at the basin level needs quality downscaling of climate change scenarios for application to impact assessment and adaptation work. This study evaluates the ability of a regional climate model (RegCM3) to simulate the present-day climate and regional water balance over the Niger River Basin (NRB). RegCM3 gives a good simulation of the NRB hydroclimatic features. The mean bias error for monthly temperature is 1.5°C, 0.3 mm d^-1 for rainfall, and 0.4 mm d^-1 for runoff. Moderate to high correlations (0.66–0.95) were found between the modelled and the observed variables. RegCM3-based water cycling indices were not statistically different from the observation. Seasonal moistening efficiency (m) ranges between 19% and 37%; 66% of the available atmospheric moisture over NRB precipitates between June and September, of which 21% originates from local evaporation. The result suggests that the moisture sink period is July to October with very high precipitation efficiency over the basin. The model reproduces the hydroclimatology of the NRB and hence is a suitable tool for further studies relating to the assessment of climate change impacts on river basin water systems.

Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Hughes     

FLOW DISTURBANCE CAUSED BY CROSS-STREAM COARSE WOODY DEBRIS

Coarse woody debris affects many streams in forested regions throughout the world. These effects include lateral channel migration, bank slumping, and aggradational or erosional features related to flow redirection. The extent of effect is dependent on the ability of the system to resist the new forces derived from flow redirection. This study on the Pine River, Ontario, looks at how obstructions that are perpendicular to downstream flow modify fluid behavior. Results show that fluctuations in speed and approach azimuth vary considerably depending on the position of the sample relative to the obstruction. The use of time-averaged (1 sec., 30 sec.) recordings of fluid speed and azimuth at selected channel locations shows how flow adjusts to external controls as it moves away from the obstruction zone, giving an indication of the spatial extent of the obstruction influence. These data are represented as a function of the diameter of the obstruction relative to the surrounding flow depth (obstruction ratio), and then are compared to results found in other debris obstructions on the Pine River and Wilmot Creek. Flow obstruction dimensions in the study site equal 26.5 trunk diameters (the average diameter of the tree trunk measured five times along its length), and range between 16.9 and 56.7 trunk diameters on the Pine River (n = 48) and between 7.4 and 63.5 trunk diameters on Wilmot Creek (n = 1066). Knowledge of these spatial relationships may allow for better management of woody debris in streams, primarily from the perspective of aquatic habitat. Multiquadric interpolation formed the basis for plotting fluid vector fields, showing the behavior of flow as it approached and moved through the obstruction zone. This is compared to studies of flow in unobstructed meanders in an attempt to quantify obstruction influence, and is used to provide a depiction of flow under these circumstances. [Key words: flow patterns, woody debris, influence zones, stream management.]     

Trends in rainfall and temperature in the Peruvian Amazon–Andes basin over the last 40 years (1965–2007)

The hydroclimatology of the Peruvian Amazon–Andes basin (PAB) which surface corresponding to 7% of the Amazon basin is still poorly documented. We propose here an extended and original analysis of the temporal evolution of monthly rainfall, mean temperature (T_mean), maximum temperature (T_max) and minimum temperature (T_min) time series over two PABs (Huallaga and Ucayali) over the last 40 years. This analysis is based on a new and more complete database that includes 77 weather stations over the 1965–2007 period, and we focus our attention on both annual and seasonal meteorological time series. A positive significant trend in mean temperature of 0.09 °C per decade is detected over the region with similar values in the Andes and rainforest when considering average data. However, a high percentage of stations with significant T_mean positive trends are located over the Andes region. Finally, changes in the mean values occurred earlier in T_max (during the 1970s) than in T_min (during the 1980s). In the PAB, there is neither trend nor mean change in rainfall during the 1965–2007 period. However, annual, summer and autumn rainfall in the southern Andes presents an important interannual variability that is associated with the sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic Ocean while there are limited relationships between rainfall and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. On the contrary, the interannual temperature variability is mainly related to ENSO events. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploring possible connections between hydrological extreme events and climate change in central south Chile

Abstract

Motivated by recent extreme flow events in the Mataquito River located in the Mediterranean region of Chile, we performed a detailed trend analysis of critical hydroclimatic variables based on observed daily flow, precipitation and temperature within the basin. For the period 1976–2008, positive trends in temperature were observed, especially during spring and summer months. At the same time, we found negative trends in the frequency and intensity of precipitation, especially during spring months. We observed an increasing difference between average streamflow in the rainy season as compared to the snowmelt season. Part of this trend is caused by larger flows during autumn months, although no positive precipitation trends are observed for these months. Finally, significant reductions in minimum flow during spring/summer and a disproportionate concentration of high-flow events occurring in the last 10 years were also identified. These high-flow events tend to happen during autumn months, and are associated with high precipitation and high minimum temperatures. Based on a simple assessment of changes in irrigated agriculture and land use, we concluded that other non-climatic factors seem not to be as relevant to the detected flow trends. All these results are in accord with future climate change scenarios that show an increase in temperature, a reduction in average precipitation and a reduction in snow accumulation. Such future scenarios could seriously hamper the development of economic activities in this basin, exemplifying also a fate that may be shared by other similar basins in Chile and in other regions of the world.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Vicuña, S., Gironás, J., Meza, F.J., Cruzat, M.L., Jelinek, M., Bustos, E., Poblete, D., and Bambach, N., 2013. Exploring possible connections between hydrological extreme events and climate change in central south Chile. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (8), 1598–1619.     

Techniques for assessing the climatic sensitivity of river flow regimes

Regimes are useful tools for characterizing the seasonal behaviour of river flow and other hydroclimatological variables over an annual cycle (hydrological year). This paper develops and tests: (i) a regime classification method to identify spatial and temporal patterns in intraannual hydroclimatological response; and (ii) a novel sensitivity index (SI) to assess river flow regimes' climatic sensitivity. The classification of regime shape (form) and magnitude considers the whole annual cycle rather than isolating a single month or season for analysis, which has been the common approach of previous studies. The classification method is particularly useful for identifying large‐scale patterns in regimes and their between‐year stability, thus providing a context for short‐term, small‐scale process‐based research. The SI provides a means of assessing the often‐complex linkages between climatic drivers and river flow, as it identifies the strength and direction of associations between classifications of climate and river flow regimes. The SI has the potential for application to other problems where relationships between nominal classifications require to be found. These techniques are evaluated by application to a test data set of river flow, air temperature and rainfall time‐series (1974–1999) for a sample of 35 UK river basins. The results support current knowledge about the hydroclimatology of the UK. Although this research does not seek to yield new, detailed physical process understanding, it provides perspective at large spatial and temporal scales upon climate and flow regime patterns and quantifies linkages. Having clearly demonstrated the regime classification and SI to be effective in an environment where the hydroclimatology is relatively well known, there appears to be much to gain from applying these techniques in parts of the world where patterns and associations between climate and hydrology are poorly understood. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Annual floods in New England (USA) and Atlantic Canada: synoptic climatology and generating mechanisms

New England and Atlantic Canada are characterized by mixed flood regimes that reflect different storm types, antecedent land surface conditions, and flood seasonality. Mixed flood regimes are known to complicate flood risk analyses, yet the synoptic climatology and precipitation mechanisms that generate annual floods in this region have not been described in detail. We analyzed a set of long-term annual flood records at climate-sensitive stream gauges across the region and classified the synoptic climatology of each annual flood, quantitatively describing the precipitation mechanisms, and characterize flood seasonality. We find that annual floods here are dominantly generated by Great Lakes-sourced storms and Coastal lows, known locally as ‘nor’easters.’ Great Lakes storms tend to be associated with lower magnitude annual floods (<75th percentile) and Coastal lows are more clearly associated with higher magnitude events (>75th percentile). Tropical cyclones account for few of all annual floods, including extreme events, despite causing some of the region’s largest and most destructive floods. Late winter/early spring is when the greatest number of annual floods occur region wide, and rainfall is the dominant flood-producing mechanism. Rainfall in combination with snowmelt is also important. Both mechanisms are expected to be impacted by projected regional climate change. We find little evidence for associations between flood-producing synoptic storm types or precipitation mechanisms and large-scale atmospheric circulation indices or time periods, despite upward trends in New England annual flood magnitudes. To more completely investigate such associations, partial duration flood series that include more floods than just the largest of each year, and their associated synoptic climatologies and precipitation mechanisms, should be analyzed.     

Hydroclimatic flood trends in the northeastern United States and linkages with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns

Abstract

We evaluate flood magnitude and frequency trends across the Mid-Atlantic USA at stream gauges selected for long record lengths and climate sensitivity, and find field significant increases. Fifty-three of 75 study gauges show upward trends in annual flood magnitude, with 12 showing increases at p < 0.05. We investigate trends in flood frequency using partial duration series data and document upward trends at 75% of gauges, with 27% increasing at p < 0.05. Many study gauges show evidence for step increases in flood magnitude and/or frequency around 1970. Expanding our study area to include New England, we find evidence for lagged positive relationships between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation phase and flood magnitude and frequency. Our results suggest hydroclimatic changes in regional flood response that are related to a combination of factors, including cyclic atmospheric variability and secular trends related to climate warming affecting both antecedent conditions and event-scale processes.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor H. Lins     

Discharge responses associated with rapid snow cover ablation events in the Susquehanna and Wabash River basins

ABSTRACT

In the mid-latitudes, snow plays a critical role in regional hydroclimate, with snow ablation variability in ephemeral regions representing an area of essential research. Due to a lack of historical snow-water-equivalent data in the eastern United States, recent research has substituted daily snow depth changes for ablation. These studies, however, do not explicitly examine if such a substitution yields a snowmelt hydrological signal, an important component of water resource management. As such, this study evaluates if ablation events, as defined as a daily snow depth decrease, subsequently result in increased river discharge within two similarly sized watersheds in the eastern United States: the Wabash and Susquehanna River basins. For both basins, >75% of snow ablation events resulted in a positive river discharge response (increase in discharge) at a 3-day lag. Furthermore, results show a significant and positive relationship between ablation event frequency and seasonal discharge response, such that an increase (decrease) in seasonal snow ablation event frequency yields an increase (decrease) in associated seasonal river discharge at a 3-day lag. These relationships indicate that inter-diurnal decreases in snow depth do carry hydrological implications, adding confidence that such a definition of ablation is appropriate for climatological applications.     

Some aspects of the hydroclimatology of the Quesnel River Basin,British Columbia,Canada

In conjunction with available climate data, surface runoff is investigated at 12 gauges in the Quesnel watershed of British Columbia to develop its long‐term (1926–2004) hydroclimatology. At Quesnel itself, annual mean values of air temperature, precipitation and runoff are 4·6 °C, 517 and 648 mm, respectively. Climate data reveal increases in precipitation, no significant trend in mean annual air temperature, but an increasing trend in mean minimum temperatures that is greatest in winter. There is some evidence of decreases in winter snow depth. On the water year scale (October–September), a strong positive correlation is found between discharge and precipitation (r = 0·70, p < 0·01) and a weak negative correlation is found between precipitation and temperature (r = ? 0·36, p < 0·01). Long‐term trends using the Mann‐Kendall test indicate increasing annual discharge amounts that vary from 8 to 14% (12% for the Quesnel River, p = 0·03), and also a tendency toward an earlier spring freshet. River runoff increases at a rate of 1·26 mm yr^?1 m^?1 of elevation from west to east along the strong elevation gradient in the basin. Discharge, temperature and precipitation are correlated with the large‐scale climate indices of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El‐Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Extracting Holocene paleohydrology and paleoclimatology information from modern extreme flood events: An example from southern California

The extraction of paleohydrological and paleoclimatological information from a modern hydrological system, shown to represent unique and extreme hydroclimatological conditions, is illustrated by an example from the Mojave River drainage basin in southern California. The Mojave River allows only the most extreme floods to reach its terminal basin in the Silver Lake playa and to form ephemeral lakes. All the other floods are lost by transmission into the alluvial aquifer along its 200 km channel. This filtering out of regular floods by the river provides an essential tool in establishing a physical link between atmospheric and hydrologic conditions. We demonstrate such a link between anomalous, present-day atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Pacific Ocean, extreme storms in southern California that produced the heaviest precipitation on record, the largest floods of record in the Mojave River watershed, and ephemeral lakes in its terminal playa. This physical link determines the possible cause of the formations of perennial, short-duration, shallow lakes in Silver Lake playa during the late Holocene and characterizes the hydroclimatic conditions that prevailed during these lacustrine episodes. Hydrological simulations of this river and its filtering character demonstrate that these lakes could have formed only if the most extreme modern storms and floods were more frequent in at least an order of magnitude during specific time episodes. We conclude that such extreme hydroclimatic conditions occurred more frequent in past episodes during which the Holocene lakes formed. In turn, this conclusion indicates that the cause of these storms and floods, i.e. the anomalous atmospheric circulation pattern, must have been more frequent. This research outlines a way to extract information on Holocene climates in hydrologic settings that demonstrate a unique cause and effect relationship.