基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

Variations in glacier volume and snow cover and their impact on lake storage in the Paiku Co Basin,in the Central Himalayas

Glaciers and snow cover are important constituents of the surface of the Tibetan Plateau. The responses of these phenomena to global environmental changes are sensitive, rapid and intensive due to the high altitudes and arid cold climate of the Tibetan Plateau. Based on multisource remote sensing data, including Landsat images, MOD10A2 snow product, ICESat, Cryosat-2 altimetry data and long-term ground climate observations, we analysed the dynamic changes of glaciers, snow melting and lake in the Paiku Co basin using extraction methods for glaciers and lake, the degree-day model and the ice and lake volume method. The interaction among the climate, ice-snow and the hydrological elements in Paiku Co is revealed. From 2000 to 2018, the basin tended to be drier, and rainfall decreased at a rate of −3.07 mm/a. The seasonal temperature difference in the basin increased, the maximum temperature increased at a rate of 0.02°C/a and the minimum temperature decreased at a rate of −0.06°C/a, which accelerated the melting from glaciers and snow at rates of 0.55 × 10⁷ m³/a and 0.29 × 10⁷ m³/a, respectively. The rate of contribution to the lake from rainfall, snow and glacier melted water was 55.6, 27.7 and 16.7%, respectively. In the past 18 years, the warmer and drier climate has caused the lake to shrink. The water level of the lake continued to decline at a rate of −0.02 m/a, and the lake water volume decreased by 4.85 × 10⁸ m³ at a rate of −0.27 × 10⁸ m³/a from 2000 to 2018. This evaluation is important for understanding how the snow and ice melting in the central Himalayas affect the regional water cycle.     

黄土高原古植被与再造山川秀美

要想恢复秀美的山川,主要在于恢复被人类严重破坏的原始植被.黄土高原的原始植被到底是什么样子,学者们说法不一.孢粉分析是最重要的方法.目前,研究结果已揭示出黄土高原古植被在第四纪以来显示着时间上、空间上的变化.古土壤代表间冰期夏季风盛行的湿热气候,植被比较繁盛;黄土代表冰期冬季风盛行的干冷气候,植被凋凌.全新世中期5000～6000年前,现代间冰期气候最佳时期,半坡人生存之时,森林茂密并有亚热带植物入侵,但兰州一带1万年来一直保持着荒漠草原的面貌.因此,黄土高原植被的恢复应参照各地的原始植被并考虑现代气候条件,因地制宜地实施.在东南部可以恢复森林,中西部可以恢复森林草原,西北部只能种草恢复草原.     

CLIMATIC TREND INDICATED BY VARIATIONS OF GLACIERS AND LAKES IN THE TIANSHAN MOUNTAINS

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图象的模型及其统计特性

本文对图象的统计特性及其适用模型作了分析。讨论了以前常用的平稳图象模型的缺陷,对实际图象的统计特性作了分析,认为它是非平稳的,不满足各态历经性,同时在空间上是高度相关的;讨论了相应的随机参数统计模型和描述性统计模型。指出作用于整幅图象的“全局”图象复原算法比每次只独立计算单个象元的“点”图象复原算法更为优越。     

Thaw modification of frost-fissure wedges,Richards Island,Pleistocene Mackenzie Delta,Western Arctic Canada

Thaw modification is the general process whereby frost-fissure wedges are modified during thaw, and by which frost-fissure pseudomorphs may develop. Specific processes of thaw modification are inferred from ice-wedge pseudomorphs, composite-wedge pseudomorphs and deformed sand wedges in the Pleistocene Mackenzie Delta: i.e. thermal erosion, collapse, subsidence, refreezing, loading, buoyancy, spreading, folding and shearing. Thaw modification is believed to result in selective preservation of pseudomorphs and wedges. Sand wedges are more likely to be preserved than are ice-wedge pseudomorphs or compositewedge pseudomorphs, because only those sand wedges that penetrate massive ice or icy sediments are prone to thaw modification. Furthermore, whereas ice wedges preferentially develop in ice-rich, fine-grained sediments (thaw-sensitive), their pseudomorphs appear to be selectively preserved in ice-poor, coarse-grained sediments (thaw-stable).     

Wavelet analysis of inter‐annual variability in the runoff regimes of glacial and nival stream catchments,Bow Lake,Alberta

Continuous wavelet analyses of hourly time series of air temperature, stream discharge, and precipitation are used to compare the seasonal and inter‐annual variability in hydrological regimes of the two principal streams feeding Bow Lake, Banff National Park, Alberta: the glacial stream draining the Wapta Icefields, and the snowmelt‐fed Bow River. The goal is to understand how water sources and flow routing differ between the two catchments. Wavelet spectra and cross‐wavelet spectra were determined for air temperature and discharge from the two streams for summers (June–September) 1997–2000, and for rainfall and discharge for the summers of 1999 and 2000. The diurnal signal of the glacial runoff was orders of magnitude higher in 1998 than in other years, indicating that significant ice exposure and the development of channelized glacial drainage occurred as a result of the 1997–98 El Niño conditions. Early retreat of the snowpack in 1997 and 1998 led to a significant summer‐long input of melt runoff from a small area of ice cover in the Bow River catchment; but such inputs were not apparent in 1999 and 2000, when snow cover was more extensive. Rainfall had a stronger influence on runoff and followed quicker flow paths in the Bow River catchment than in the glacial catchment. Snowpack thickness and catchment size were the primary controls on the phase relationship between temperature and discharge at diurnal time scales. Wavelet analysis is a fast and effective means to characterize runoff, temperature, and precipitation regimes and their interrelationships and inter‐annual variability. The technique is effective at identifying inter‐annual and seasonal changes in the relative contributions of different water sources to runoff, and changes in the time required for routing of diurnal meltwater pulses through a catchment. However, it is less effective at identifying changes/differences in the type of the flow routing (e.g. overland flow versus through flow) between or within catchments. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sedimentary evolution of a Late Pleistocene temperate red algal reef (Coralligène) on Rhodes,Greece: correlation with global sea‐level fluctuations

Autochthonous red algal structures known as coralligène de plateau occur in the modern warm‐temperate Mediterranean Sea at water depths from 20 to 120 m, but fossil counterparts are not so well‐known. This study describes, from an uplifted coastal section at Plimiri on the island of Rhodes, a 450 m long by 10 m thick Late Pleistocene red algal reef (Coralligène Facies), interpreted as being a coralligène de plateau, and its associated deposits. The Coralligène Facies, constructed mainly by Lithophyllum and Titanoderma, sits unconformably upon the Plio‐Pleistocene Rhodes Formation and is overlain by a Maerl Facies (2 m), a Mixed Siliciclastic‐Carbonate Facies (0·2 m) and an Aeolian Sand Facies (2·5 m). The three calcareous facies, of Heterozoan character, are correlated with established members in the Lindos Acropolis Formation in the north of the island, while the aeolian facies is assigned to the new Plimiri Aeolianite Formation. The palaeoenvironmental and genetic‐stratigraphic interpretations of these mixed siliciclastic‐carbonate temperate water deposits involved consideration of certain characteristics associated with siliciclastic shelf and tropical carbonate shelf models, such as vertical grain‐size trends and the stratigraphic position of zooxanthellate coral growths. Integration of these results with electron spin resonance dates of bivalve shells indicates that the Coralligène Facies was deposited during Marine Isotope Stage 6 to 5e transgressive event (ca 135 to 120 ka), in water depths of 20 to 50 m, and the overlying Maerl Facies was deposited during regression from Marine Isotope Stage 5e to 5d (ca 120 to 110 ka), at water depths of 25 to 40 m. The capping Aeolian Sand Facies, involving dual terrestrial subunits, is interpreted as having formed during each of the glacial intervals Marine Isotope Stages 4 (71 to 59 ka) and 2 (24 to 12 ka), with soil formation during the subsequent interglacial periods of Marine Isotope Stages 3 and 1, respectively. Accumulation rates of about 0·7 mm year^?1 are estimated for the Coralligène Facies and minimum accumulation rates of 0·2 mm year^?1 are estimated for the Maerl Facies. The existence of older red algal reefs in the Plimiri region during at least Marine Isotope Stages 7 (245 to 186 ka) and 9 (339 to 303 ka) is inferred from the occurrence of reworked coralligène‐type lithoclasts in the basal part of the section and from the electron spin resonance ages of transported bivalve shells.     

Giant submarine landslide grooves in the Neoproterozoic/Lower Cambrian Phe Formation, northwest Himalaya: Mechanisms of formation and palaeogeographic implications

Giant groove casts have been found in the upper Proterozoic to Lower Cambrian Phe Formation (Haimanta Group), a siliciclastic sandstone/shale succession in the Tethyan Zone of the Higher Himalaya tectonic unit. The grooves are among the largest linear erosion structures related to submarine mass-movements observed in the geologic record. They are up to 4 m wide, about 0.2 m deep and can be traced for more than 35 m without changing their character. The grooves are straight, subparallel to cross-cutting striations with shallow semi-circular cross-sections and well-defined superimposed minor ridges and grooves. Groove casts exist on the soles of several sandstone beds within a 73 m thick logged section, commonly associated with flute casts. Their characteristics were compared with several other types of ancient and modern submarine linear erosion structures. A sand-rich, non-channelized basin floor depositional environment is inferred from the lithofacies, the combination of sedimentary structures, the lack of coarse-grained pebbly facies, the lateral continuity of beds, and the lack of channel structures. The grooves probably formed by laminar debris flows/concentrated density flows dragging blocks of already lithified sediment across the basin floor. When the bedding is structurally rotated back to horizontal, the groove casts show consistent North–South oriented palaeocurrent trends, with South-directed palaeocurrent directions indicated by flute casts. These palaeocurrent orientations contrast with previous palaeogeographic reconstructions of this area, which propose sediment delivery from the South. We therefore suggest a new “double provenance” model for the spatial relationship of late Proterozoic to Early Cambrian strata of the Himalaya, in which Lesser and Tethyan Himalayan age-equivalent sediment was deposited in a connected basin, where the former received detritus from the South, and the latter from a hitherto unknown source in the North. One possible candidate for this northern source is the South China Block and an associated Neoproterozoic volcanic arc.