REVIEWS OF GEOGRAPHIC SOFTWARE

Reviews of geographic software in this article: DEMO-GRAPHICS: WORLD POPULATIONS AND PROJECTIONS. ESP GAUSS. CEMODEL S. Damus LIMDEP. William H. Greene MICROSTAT 4.1 OTIS PCIPS. (Personal Computer Image Processing System) . H.J. Meyers and R. Bernstein. REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES (RATS) SPSS/PC+ URBAN DATA MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE (UDMS)     

Application of stress release models to historical earthquakes from North China

Univariate and multivariate stress release models are fitted to historical earthquake data from North China. It is shown that a better fit is obtained by treating separately the Eastern part of the region, including the North China Plain and Bohai Sea, and the Western part of the region, including the Ordos Plateau and its Eastern boundary. Further improvement is obtained by fitting the large events (M7.6) and smaller events in the Western region by different stress release models. The comparisons are made by computing the likelihoods of the fitted models and discounting the number of parameters used by Akaike's AIC criterion. The models are used to develop long-term risk scenarios for the East and West regions.     

碱消解-高效液相色谱-电感耦合等离子体质谱法测定生物样品中的甲基汞和乙基汞

建立了碱消解-高效液相色谱-电感耦合等离子体质谱联用系统测定生物样品中甲基汞(MeHg)与乙基汞(EtHg)的分析方法。为提高灵敏度,选用微流量的PFA雾化器,在优化的检测条件下,MeHg及EtHg检出限可达到0.036μg/L和0.03μg/L;线性范围达到4个数量级,两条工作曲线线性相关系数为1。对1.78μg/L MeHg、1.65μg/L EtHg的混合标准溶液重复测定7次,色谱峰面积的相对标准偏差(RSD)分别为1.79%和1.44%。对标准物质BCR 464(金枪鱼)的分析结果表明,测定值与标准值基本吻合,但略低于标准值;甲基汞和乙基汞的加标回收率分别为85.9%和84.5%。高效液相色谱与质谱联用技术的高灵敏度和低检出限能够满足生物样品中汞形态定量分析的要求。     

基于分布式水文模拟的三峡区间洪水预报(Ⅰ)——模型构建及验证

长江三峡区间因暴雨形成的洪水峰高量大,对三峡水库的防洪安全和运行调度的影响很大.本论文依据三峡地区的地形地貌特征,采用基于GIS的机理性分布式水文模型,来模拟三峡区间入库洪水,以尽量减少洪水预报中的不确定性.利用近期建成的78个自动雨量站网监测的小时降雨信息作为模型的输入,对模型参数进行了率定和验证,结果表明:大多数洪水过程的模拟精度较好,但也有的模拟结果较差,其中降雨信息缺失是洪水预报不确定性的主要来源.     

Study on short-range numerical forecasting of ocean current in the East China Sea——Ⅰ Basic problems of ocean current forecasting and structure of the models

Ocean current forecasting is still in explorative stage of study. In the study, we face some problems that have not been met before. The solving of these problems has become fundamental premise for realizing the ocean current forecasting. In the present paper are discussed in depth the physical essence for such basic problems as the predictability of ocean current, the predictable currents, the dynamical basis for studying respectively the tidal current and circulation, the necessity of boundary model, the models on regions with different scales and their link. The foundations and plans to solve the problems are demonstrated. Finally a set of operational numerical forecasting system for ocean current is proposed.     

1990年12月14日台湾强震的预报判据

本文运用福建省沿海气象要素的异常变化,作台湾省的中、短期地震预报,取得了成功的效果。采用长乐历年各月14时最低气压的距平值,作台湾省未来4～7个月内出现强震的预报依据,并采用热异常进行短临跟踪。当秋冬季节连续4d 长乐、福州、台北的气温均比广州累计高出10℃时,预报未来1～5d 台湾省出现7级强震。又根据近百年来台湾发生的强震,统计其活动季节,得到近20年来7级地震发生的时间,绝大部分在9～12月。     

几丁糖酯原料药稳定性研究

该文建立高效凝胶渗透色谱法 (HPGPC) ,明胶比浊法 ,氧瓶燃烧法三种分析方法考察海洋硫酸多糖药物几丁糖酯的稳定性 ,采用这三种方法分别考察几丁糖酯原料药在高温、高湿、强光照射及加速条件下分子量及分布宽度、样品中硫酸根含量及样品含量的变化情况。结果表明 :三种方法均适用于几丁糖酯的稳定性考察 ,几丁糖酯在上述影响因素条件下稳定性良好     

莱州湾温带风暴潮预报研究

本文依据莱州湾羊角沟、夏营两站建国以来的风暴增水资料，对莱州湾建国后发生的风暴潮进行了统计分析，并探讨了温带风暴潮产生的物理机制，此外还对莱州湾温带风暴增水以及诱发增水的天气形势进行了分析分类。在此基础上建立了莱州湾温带风暴潮统计预报方法，并在作业预报中对模型进行了检验，取得较为理想的效果。     

Jason-1: Assessment of the System Performances

On 7 December 2001, Jason-1 was successfully launched by a Boeing Delta II rocket from the Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. The Jason-1 satellite will maintain the high accuracy altimeter service provided since 1992 by TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P), ensuring the continuity in observing and monitoring the Ocean Dynamics (intraseasonal to interannual changes, mean sea level, tides, etc.). Despite one-fourth the mass and power, the Jason-1 system has been designed to have basically the same performance as T/P, measuring sea surface topography at a centimetric level. This new CNES/NASA mission also provides near real-time data for sea state and ocean forecast. The first two months of the Jason-1 mission have been dedicated to the assessment of the overall system. The goals of this assessment phase were:

1. To assess the behavior of the spacecraft at the platform and payload levels (Jason-1 being the first program to call on the PROTEUS versatile multimission platform for Low and Medium Earth Orbit Missions developed in partnership between Alcatel Space and CNES);

2. To verify that platform performance requirements are met with respect to Jason-1 requirements;

3. To verify that payload instruments performance requirements evaluated at instrument level are met;

4. To assess the performance of the Jason-1 Ground System.

This article will display the main outputs of the assessment of the system. It will demonstrate that all the elements of the onboard and ground systems are within the specifications. Provision of data to the Jason-1 Science Working Team started at the end of March 2002. This is the goal of a six-month phase after closure of the initial assessment phase to derive the error budget of the system in terms of altimetry user products.