The green revolution and poverty: a theoretical and empirical examination of the relation between technology and society

The paper deals with the effects of the green revolution (GR) technology on poverty both conceptually and empirically. It provides a brief overview of the GR debate and then presents a `slice' of this debate in detail - in particular, Lipton's and others' views on the supposed positive and negative benefits of the GR for the poor. The paper then provides a provocative critique of this literature for its underlying neo-Malthusianism of a specific type, for ignoring class issues in the analysis of the GR-poverty relation, and for treating this relation as a necessary relation. It subsequently presents an alternative statement on the GR-poverty issue, arguing that it is class relations that set limit within which population and technology work and affect poverty and that the GR-poverty relation is a contingent one, rather than necessary. In the light of the paper's criticisms and the alternative view it provides, a statistical analysis of the relation between the GR and the population factor on the one hand and poverty level and poverty reduction on the other in India is performed. This analysis is generally consistent with the paper's critique of the Liptonian framework.     

Suspended sediment load transport in the Mississippi River basin at St. Louis: temporal scaling and nonlinear determinism

This study investigates the dynamic behavior of suspended sediment load transport at different temporal scales in the Mississippi River basin. Data corresponding to five successively doubled temporal scales (i.e. daily, two‐day, four‐day, eight‐day and 16‐day) from the St. Louis gaging station in Missouri are analyzed. The investigation is focused on identifying possible low‐dimensional deterministic behavior in the suspended sediment load transport dynamics, with an aim towards reduction in model complexity. The correlation dimension method is used to identify low‐dimensional determinism. The suspended sediment load dynamics are represented through phase‐space reconstruction, and the variability is estimated using the (proximity of) reconstructed vectors in the phase space. The results indicate the presence of low‐dimensional determinism in the suspended sediment load series at each of the five temporal scales, with the variables dominantly governing the dynamics in the order of three or four. These results not only suggest the appropriateness of relatively simpler models but also hint at possible scale invariance in the suspended sediment load transport dynamics. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nonlinear determinism in river flow: prediction as a possible indicator

Whether or not river flow exhibits nonlinear determinism remains an unresolved question. While studies on the use of nonlinear deterministic methods for modeling and prediction of river flow series are on the rise and the outcomes are encouraging, suspicions and criticisms of such studies continue to exist as well. An important reason for this situation is that the correlation dimension method, used as a nonlinear determinism identification tool in most of those studies, may possess certain limitations when applied to real river flow series, which are always finite and often short and also contaminated with noise (e.g. measurement error). In view of this, the present study addresses the issue of nonlinear determinism in river flow series using prediction as a possible indicator. This is done by (1) reviewing studies that have employed nonlinear deterministic methods (coupling phase‐space reconstruction and local approximation techniques) for river flow predictions and (2) identifying nonlinear determinism (or linear stochasticity) based on the level of prediction accuracy in general, and on the prediction accuracy against the phase‐space reconstruction parameters in particular (termed as the ‘inverse approach’). The results not only provide possible indications to the presence of nonlinear determinism in the river flow series studied, but also support, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the low correlation dimensions reported for such. Therefore, nonlinear deterministic methods are a viable complement to linear stochastic ones for studying river flow dynamics, if sufficient caution is exercised in their applications and in interpreting the outcomes. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

INTELLECTUAL COHERENCE AND THE FOUNDATIONS OF GEOGRAPHY

The discipline of geography needs a more clearly defined academic purpose if it is to retain and enhance its position as an essential university subject. The discipline lacks the intellectual coherence it once achieved on the basis of environmental determinism. Geographers could re-establish a coherent intellectual foundation for geography by adopting a historical-intellectual mode of enquiry focusing on human thought and ideas and re-emphasizing the central importance of the human-environment relationship as the foundation of the discipline. An understanding of human activity in the environment in relation to ideas could provide a clearer focus for the discipline of geography and give it a stronger intellectual identity.     

Beyond collapse: climate change and causality during the Middle Holocene Climatic Transition, 6400–5000 years before present

The twenty-first century is likely to be characterised by large changes in regional climatic and environmental conditions, with implications for the availability and distribution of key resources such as water and productive land. While the implications of such changes for human societies are potentially profound, the empirical evidence base for understanding human–environment interactions focuses largely on the relatively recent past, during which examples of rapid and severe climate change are lacking. While there are no precise past analogues for twenty-first century climate change, the Middle Holocene Climatic Transition (MHCT), from about 6400–5000?years before present, provides us with an example of a period of large-scale global climatic reorganisation, punctuated by episodes of rapid and severe climate change, at a time when human societies were beginning to resemble those of today. A survey of archaeological and palaeo-environmental data from the northern hemisphere subtropics and other regions provides us with evidence for linked climatic, environmental and societal change during the MHCT. This evidence, the strength of which varies with location, allows us to construct convincing narratives of linked climatic, environmental and societal changes that accommodate a variety of responses and outcomes, and that are much more nuanced than narratives of the proposed climate-induced collapse of individual societies. Such synthetic studies that compare contexts across time and space can help us understand human–environment interactions during times of climatic disruption, while allowing for diverse outcomes and avoiding the pitfalls of climatic determinism.     

SIMION MEHEDINŢI AND MODERN ROMANIAN GEOGRAPHY

The foundations of modern Romanian geography were laid by one man, Simion Mehedin?i, at the beginning of the twentieth century. His systematic view of a unified geography developed from the ideas formed during his education in France and Germany, particularly under the influence of Ratzel. His ideas, propagated by his followers, are still regarded as valid by the present generation of Romanian geographers.     

The Utilization of Wastes and By-Products

Abstract

Commercial Geography. By Jacques W. Redway. Size, 6 × 3 8/4 inches. Pp. viii and 406. Chas. Scribner's Sons, New York, 1903.     

Environmental determinism in Holocene research: causality or coincidence?

The past decade has seen a revival of environmental determinism in palaeoenvironmental research, with palaeoclimatic shifts implicated in the collapse of many past civilizations. Implicit in these studies is a belief that the observed cultural transitions can be causally related to the magnitude of climatic change. However, examination of the processes of these declines suggests that many exhibit patterns characteristic of complexity cascading within self-organized systems. If so, the nonlinear nature of these systems' responses to external forcing means that the assumption of causality in many of these cases should be considered questionable.     

Predictability of river flow and suspended sediment transport in the Mississippi River basin: a non‐linear deterministic approach

As the Mississippi River plays a major role in fulfilling various water demands in North America, accurate prediction of river flow and sediment transport in the basin is crucial for undertaking both short‐term emergency measures and long‐term management efforts. To this effect, the present study investigates the predictability of river flow and suspended sediment transport in the basin. As most of the existing approaches that link water discharge, suspended sediment concentration and suspended sediment load possess certain limitations (absence of consensus on linkages), this study employs an approach that presents predictions of a variable based on history of the variable alone. The approach, based on non‐linear determinism, involves: (1) reconstruction of single‐dimensional series in multi‐dimensional phase‐space for representing the underlying dynamics; and (2) use of the local approximation technique for prediction. For implementation, river flow and suspended sediment transport variables observed at the St. Louis (Missouri) station are studied. Specifically, daily water discharge, suspended sediment concentration and suspended sediment load data are analysed for their predictability and range, by making predictions from one day to ten days ahead. The results lead to the following conclusions: (1) extremely good one‐day ahead predictions are possible for all the series; (2) prediction accuracy decreases with increasing lead time for all the series, but the decrease is much more significant for suspended sediment concentration and suspended sediment load; and (3) the number of mechanisms dominantly governing the dynamics is three for each of the series. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Uncovering Influences on the Form of Oil and Gas Field Size Distributions

A detailed understanding of the processes that led to empirical oil and gas field size distributions, especially the dynamic character of the discovery process, is needed to improve the quality of forecasts of oil and gas resources. An empirical distribution results from a complex interaction of economic, technical, and social factors with geology in the form of a distribution of deposits. These factors may cause an empirical distribution to mutate nonrandomly through time. Changes in the price of oil, the cost of exploration and development, technology, and access to prospects influence the discovery process. Failure to recognize and account for them in the modeling process can result in serious bias in estimates of the number and volume of future discoveries. In addition, the broad range of some forecasts for a given region may be explained by differences in perspective of those involved in the process. Geologists who understand the basic processes and collect the data may be scientific determinists. Statisticians who model and analyze the data are trained to think in terms of random variables and stochastic processes.