Canonical theory of perturbations using eccentric anomaly as independent variable

It is shown in this paper how to build a canonical transformation of variables, so that the eccentric anomaly becomes the new independent variable. In the case of eccentric elliptical orbits it changes the equations of motion so, that they can be integrated analytically to any order of approximation comparatively easy.     

Minor planet short periodic perturbations: The indirect part of the disturbing function

Leverrier's development of the indirect part of the disturbing function has been extended to include terms up to degree 4 in eccentricity and inclination; the resulting series has been expressed with respect to a fixed plane, and in a computer readable form (a list of integers). Tests have been performed for the relative significance of the terms of degrees 2, 3 and 4, and estimates have been obtained for the accuracy of the short periodic perturbations of a minor planet, and of the corresponding mean orbital elements. It was found that: (i) even in extreme cases, the indirect part of the disturbing function gives rise to very small short periodic perturbations; (ii) bodies of very high eccentricity/inclination and those close to mean motion resonances are most significantly affected; (iii) indirect perturbations for minor planets can be computed up to the degree 2 terms only, without any significant loss of accuracy; and (iv) higher degree indirect perturbations appear to be important only for their contribution to the long periodic effects of higher order (with respect to the perturbing mass).     

GRAPES全球集合预报系统模式扰动随机动能补偿方案初步探究

为了体现次网格尺度能量升尺度转换过程中存在的不确定性, 文中将随机动能补偿(Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter, SKEB)方案应用于GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System)全球集合预报系统(GRAPES-GEPS), 以更好地表征模式误差并且增大集合离散度。使用的SKEB方案基于具有一定时、空相关特征的随机型以及由数值扩散导致的局地动能耗散率来构造随机流函数强迫。并根据流函数与水平风速旋转分量的关系, 将SKEB方案中的流函数强迫转化为适用于GRAPES全球模式的水平风速扰动。结果表明, SKEB方案的使用一方面能够提高GRAPES对大气动能谱的模拟能力; 另一方面能够改善GRAPES-GEPS的集合离散度与集合平均误差的关系, 增加了集合离散度, 并在一定程度上减小了集合平均误差, 尤其是在热带地区这种改进更为显著。而且该方案使得热带地区连续分级概率评分(CRPS评分)显著减小。就降水预报而言, 从Brier评分与相对作用特征面积(AROC, Area under the Relative Operating Characteristics)的结果来看, SKEB方案有助于改善中国地区小雨[0.1 mm, 10 mm)、中雨[10 mm, 25 mm)与大雨[25 mm, 50 mm)量级降水的概率预报技巧, 而对暴雨[50 mm, ∞)量级降水预报技巧影响很小(24 h降水量)。总体上, 模式扰动随机动能补偿方案提高了GRAPES-GEPS的概率预报技巧。      

具有随机扰动和混合时滞的两层异质网络的同步研究

在现实生活中,很多复杂的系统不是由单个网络来表示,而是由一组相互依赖的网络系统来表示的.本文研究了具有随机扰动和混合时滞的两层异质网络的对应节点的同步控制问题.基于随机微分时滞方程的LaSalle不变原理和Lyapunov稳定性理论,采用牵制控制方法,对部分节点实施控制,给出了实现同步的充分条件.为了降低反馈控制的增益,结合自适应控制的方法,进一步弱化了两层异质网络实现同步的条件.最后,通过数值仿真,验证了理论结果的有效性.     

Volcanically Driven Terrestrial Environmental Perturbations during the Carnian Pluvial Episode in the Eastern Tethys

The Carnian Pluvial Episode (CPE) fingerprints global environmental perturbations and biological extinction on land and oceans and is potentially linked to the Wrangellia Large Igneous Province (LIP). However, the correlation between terrestrial environmental changes and Wrangellia volcanism in the Ordos Basin during the CPE remains poorly understood. Records of negative carbon isotopic excursions (NCIEs), mercury (Hg), Hg/TOC, and Hg enrichment factor (HgEF) from oil shales in a large-scale terrestrial Ordos Basin in the Eastern Tethys were correlated with marine and other terrestrial successions. The three significant NCIEs in the study section were consistently correlated with those in the CPE successions of Europe, the UK, and South and North China. The U-Pb geochronology indicates a Ladinian–Carnian age for the Chang 7 Member. A comprehensive overview of the geochronology, NCIE correlation, and previous bio- and chronostratigraphic frameworks shows that the Ladinian–Carnian boundary is located in the lower part of Chang 7 in the Yishicun section. HgEF may be a more reliable proxy for tracing volcanic eruptions than the Hg/TOC ratio because the accumulation rates of TOC content largely vary in terrestrial and marine successions. The records of Hg, Hg/TOC, HgEF, and NCIEs in the Ordos Basin aligned with Carnian successions worldwide and were marked by similar anomalies, indicating a global response to the Wrangellia LIP during the CPE. Anoxia, a warm-humid climate, enhancement of detrital input, and NCIEs are synchronous with the CPE interval in the Ordos Basin, which suggests that the CPE combined with the regional Qinling Orogeny should dominate the enhanced rate of terrigenous input and paleoenvironmental evolution in the Ordos Basin.     

Impacts of New Implementing Strategies for Surface and Model Physics Perturbations in TREPS on Forecasts of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

To improve the ensemble prediction system of the tropical regional atmosphere model for the South China Sea(TREPS) in predicting landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs), the impacts of three new implementing strategies for surface and model physics perturbations in TREPS were evaluated for 19 TCs making landfall in China during 2014–16. For sea surface temperature(SST) perturbations, spatially uncorrelated random perturbations were replaced with spatially correlated ones. The multiplier f, which is u...     

Lunisolar Apsidal Resonances at low Satellite Orbits

Eccentricity resonances between the secular motion of an Earth satellite's orbit and the longitudes of the Sun and the Moon are studied within a Hamiltonian framework. The problem is approximated in a traditional manner, with the Earth's potential including only the second zonal harmonic, and a Hill‐type approximation for perturbing bodies. For a family of 10 resonances, stable and unstable points are identified and libration widths are estimated. Numerical values are given for the maximum variation of eccentricity available at each resonance. The respective amplitudes of the perigee heights' librations range from 2 to 750 km. The resonances of the solar origin are generally stronger than their lunar counterparts. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The gravitational perturbation spectrum in linear satellite theory

A new method for calculating the perturbation spectrum in the framework of Kaula's linear satellite theory (LST) is introduced. The novelty of this approach consists in using recent results on the spectral decomposition of the perturbation frequencies in LST to provide a closed formulation for the amplitude and the phase of each line in the perturbation spectrum. The theory presented here can be applied to perturbations in the elements or in the radial and transverse directions due to the geopotential or to the tides. Separate algorithms are developed for application to orbits with circulating or frozen perigee.     

Seismic Moment Tensor Resolution on a Local Scale: Simulated Rockburst and Mine-induced Seismic Events in the Kopanang Gold Mine, South Africa

Seismic records contain information about the effect of the source as well as the effect of wave propagation through the rock mass. The effect of wave propagation is usually not well known as only simplified models of geological structures are available. Therefore, the information about the source retrieved by inverting seismograms may include errors due to incomplete knowledge of the rock mass along the propagation path, which in turn cause a distortion in the calculated moment tensor (MT). The distortion of the MT on a local scale was observed by inverting records of a simulated rockburst conducted at the Kopanang gold mine in South Africa. A dominant isotropic component of the explosive characteristics was found from the inversion. The deviatoric components retrieved from the blast are spurious. A test of their stability indicated that they are not significant, assuming an uncertainty above 5% for velocities and 10% for attenuation within the homogeneous model available for the mine. Thus, the retrieval of the MT from records of local networks in mines using a homogeneous model of the rock mass seems to be feasible. However, the homogeneous model of the rock mass can only be applied to close stations, within a few kilometers of the source. The seismic records from distant stations were too complex to be modelled by a homogeneous rock mass. Records of six mine-induced seismic events recorded at the Kopanang gold mine were also inverted. A vertical linear dipole along the pressure (P) axis was found for three of the events, suggesting a pillar burst. The mechanism of two events contains an isotropic implosion together with a nearly vertical dip-slip, and seems to indicate a combination of a cavity collapse with a down dip-slip along a nearly vertical fault. One event corresponds to a dipole along the tensional (T) axis. However, it is vertical, thus its association with tensile faulting of the hangingwall is uncertain.