A coupled model study on the intensification of the Asian summer monsoon in IPCC SRES Scenarios

The Asian summer monsoon is an important part of the climate system. Investigating the response of the Asian summer monsoon to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols will be meaningful to understand and predict climate variability and climate change not only in Asia but also globally. In order to diagnose the impacts of future anthropogenic emissions on monsoon climates, a coupled general circulation model of the atmosphere and the ocean has been used at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology. In addition to carbon dioxide, the major well mixed greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide, several chlorofluorocarbons, and CFC substitute gases are prescribed as a function of time. The sulfur cycle is simulated interactively, and both the direct aerosol effect and the indirect cloud albedo effect are considered. Furthermore, changes in tropospheric ozone have been pre-calculated with a chemical transport model and prescribed as a function of time and space in the climate simulations. Concentrations of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic emissions of sulfur dioxide are prescribed according to observations （1860-1990） and projected into the future （1990-2100） according to the Scenarios A2 and B2 in Special Report on Emissions Scenarios （SRES, Nakcenovic et al., 2000） developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）. It is found that the Indian summer monsoon is enhanced in the scenarios in terms of both mean precipitation and interannual variability. An increase in precipitation is simulated for northern China but a decrease for the southern part. Furthermore, the simulated future increase in monsoon variability seems to be linked to enhanced ENSO variability towards the end of the scenario integrations.     

我国新亚欧大陆桥沿线地区机电工业发展研究

机电工业作为产业带建设中的主导产业之一,在产业结构高级化中的作用越来越大,对国民经济的带动作用也越来越明显。文章分析了知地区发展机条件和方向,论述了沿桥地区以大城市为依托的５个各有色特色的机电工业基地,并对沿桥机电工业的发展提出了建议。     

气候变化对新疆玛纳斯河流域水文水资源的影响

考虑积雪和降水不均等特点,对流域进行分带处理,提出和建立了包含积雪融雪结构的水文评价模型。利用该模型求得未来不同气候变化情况下的月均流量过程,分析气候变化对玛纳斯河流域水文水资源的影响。结果表明:若气温升高2℃,降水减少20%,则夏季径流减少52.59%,冬季径流减少1.77%,年均径流减少46.87%。     

Constructing the latest Neoproterozoic to Early Paleozoic multiple crust-mantle interactions in western Bainaimiao arc terrane,southeastern Central Asian Orogenic Belt

Identifying the crust-mantle interactions in association with the evolution of the Precambrian microcontinents provides critical constraints on the accretionary evolution in the Central Asian Orogenic Belt(CAOB).The Bainaimiao arc terrane(BAT) is one of the most important Precambrian microcontinents in southeastern CAOB,however,few studies have paid attention to the types and the evolving processes of the crust-mantle interactions that occurred before its final accretion onto the northern North China Craton.This study presents an integrated study of geochronology,zircon Hf isotope and whole-rock geochemistry on the latest Neoproterozoic diabases and the Early Paleozoic arc intrusions in the western BAT.The latest Neoproterozoic(ca.546 Ma) diabases display low SiO_2(46.52-49.24 wt.%) with high MgO(8.23-14.41 wt.%),Cr(66-542 ppm) and Ni(50-129 ppm),consisting with mantle origin.Their highly negative zircon ε_(Hf)(t)(-12.0 to-24.7) and high Fe/Mn ratios(62.1-81.7)further indicate a significantly enriched mantle source.Considering that the BAT maybe initially separated from the Tarim Craton with a thickened crustal root,we propose that these diabases were generated through partial melting of an enriched lithospheric mantle source that had been hybridized by lower-crustal eclogites during foundering of the BAT lower crust.The Early Paleozoic(ca.475-417 Ma) arc intrusions in western BAT can be divided into Periods Ⅰ and Ⅱ at approximately 450 Ma.The Period Ⅰ(450 Ma) intrusions contain abundant mafic minerals like hornblende and pyroxene,and show positive zircon ε_(Hf)(t)(+1.5 to+10.9).They are predominantly medium-K calc-alkaline with broad correlations of SiO2 versus various major and trace elements,which correlate well with the experimental melts produced by the fractional crystallization of primitive hydrous arc magmas at 7 kbar.We assume they were formed through mid-crustal differentiation of the mantle wedge-derived hydrous basaltic melts.By contrast,the Period Ⅱ(≤450 Ma) intrusions are characterized by variable zircon e_(Hf)(t)(-15.0 to+11.5) with irregular variations in most major and trace elements,which are more akin to the arc magmas generated in an open system.The general occurrence of elder inherited zircons,along with the relatively high Mg#(45) of some samples,call upon a derivation from the reworking of the previously subduction-modified BAT lower crust with the input of mantle-derived mafic components.In combination with the Early Paleozoic tectonic melanges flanking western BAT,we infer that the compositional transition from Period Ⅰ to Ⅱ can be attributed to the tectonic transition from south-dipping subduction of Solonker ocean to north-dipping subduction of South Bainaimiao ocean in southeastern CAOB.The above results shed light not only on the latest Neoproterozoic to Early Paleozoic multiple crust-mantle interactions in western BAT,but also on the associated crustal construction processes before the final arc-continent accretion.     

东亚国民文化特质与经济发展

本文在探讨东亚地区国民文化特质形成背景的基础上,着重分析了日本,亚洲“四小龙”的国民文化特质在其地区发展中的作用,并指出其对我国在发展现代化经济过程中应重视提高国民文化素质的启示。     

冬季北极涛动对西伯利亚高压、东亚冬季风以及海冰范围的可能影响

利用NCEP／NCAR月平均再分析资料（1958－1997），月平均海表面温度资料（1950－1992）以及月的海冰密集度资料（1953－1995），研究了冬季北极涛动与西伯利亚高压、东亚冬季风以及巴伦支海海冰范围之间的联系。研究结果表明，冬季北极涛动不仅影响北极和北大西洋区域气候变化，并且可能影响冬季西伯利亚高压，进而影响东亚冬季风。当冬季北极涛动处于正位相时，冬季西伯利亚高压和东亚冬季风都偏弱，在西伯利亚南部和东亚沿岸，包括中国东部、韩国和日本，从地表面到对流层中部气温偏高0.5-2℃。当冬季北极涛动处于负位相时，结果正相反。研究结果还表明，冬季西伯利亚高压对北极以及北大西洋区域气候变化没有显的影响，与北极涛动的影响相比，西伯利亚的影响强度和范围明显偏弱。研究进一步揭示了冬季北极涛动可能影响西伯利亚高压的可能机理。冬季西伯利亚高压与动力过程以及从地表面到对流层中部的气温变化有密切的关系。西伯利亚高压的西部变化主要依赖于动力过程，而其东部与气温变化更为密切。冬季西伯利亚高压的维持主要依赖于对流层中的下沉气流，这种下沉气流源于北大西洋区域，其变化受到北极涛动的影响。当冬季北极涛动处于正（负）位相时，气流的下沉运动明显减弱（增强），进而影响冬季西伯利亚高压。此处，冬季北极涛动对同时期的巴伦支海海冰范围有显的影响。     

金川铜镍硫化物矿床深熔-就地成矿作用过程研究

文章通过研究矿石冶炼过程中矿物种类、含量、物理化学性质、结晶形态、嵌布特征、颗粒大小和生成环境以及矿物在高温条件下的物理化学反应等，并使之与铜镍硫化物矿床特征对比，认为金川铜镍硫化物矿床深熔—就地成矿作用过程为从深部到侵位的持续熔离。岩浆上侵过程中由于高熔点富镁橄榄石及铬铁矿陆续在岩浆房侧边析出固结，使得岩浆房逐渐变小，硫化物不断富集，最终使得小岩体容大矿。     

环境恶化导致我国东部夏季频现北旱南涝

根据延伸的我国晴空总辐射量和夏季气候的关系,本文再次确认反映大气污染程度的晴空太阳辐射减少对我国近年来夏季频现的北旱南涝产生显著影响．同时。它还对随后2年以上的我国北方沙地面积的扩张起相当作用．较全面研究了近年来我国东部夏季北旱南涝加速发展的前期成因。认为这是包含空气质量,土地沙化在内的我国整个生态环境快速恶化并受到温室效应和“亚洲棕云”更大范围环境变化影响的综合结果．理应引起我们高度警惕．