1998年夏、冬季南海水团分析

为了解南海水团的特征和分布 ,基于 1 998年夏季和冬季两个航次的实测资料 ,采用聚类分析、判别分析和模糊分析方法 ,对南海的水团进行了分析。结果表明 ,南海外海水可划分为 6个水团 ,即南海表层水团、南海次表层水团、南海次 中层混合水团、南海中层水团、南海深层水团和南海底盆水。越南附近夏季存在一个暖涡 ;1 998年夏季还可鉴别出黑潮表层水团和黑潮次表层水团 ,但在冬季观测期间无黑潮水越过 1 1 9.5°E经线进入南海 ;这些现象可能与厄尔尼诺现象有关联。夏季有苏禄海海水在 5 0— 75m层经由民都洛海峡侵入南海     

台湾海峡毛颚动物分布的初步研究

本文分析了台湾海峡毛颚动物的种类组成、数量分布特征，并就其与环境因素的关系进行了初步探讨．结果显示与台湾海峡西部、东海等邻近海域相比，本区毛颚动物具种数少，数量小，季节变化幅度较小等特点．它的数量分布状况与闽斯沿岸流、南海西南季风漂流以及黑潮支流在本区运动消长有关。     

细基江蓠脂肪酸组成研究

研究表明,南海细基江蓠Gracilaria tenuistipitata中主要含有C_9—C_(30)一元饱和脂肪酸,其中n-十六酸含量占脂肪酸组分的40％以上。单烯和二烯酸的含量较低,缺乏多烯酸及前列腺素类化合物。此外,还含有少量二元酸类、4-及5-羰基羧酸,其中后两者是首次在红藻中发现。南海细基江蓠的脂肪酸组成特征与南海海域水质较清、光照充足及水温较高等环境因素有关。     

静态精密单点定位精度分析

阐述了精密单点定位技术的应用价值,分析了观测数据和精密钟差采样间隔对静态精密单点定位的影响,提供了工程实际使用有益的参考.     

ENSO事件与鲁西北夏季降水的关系

应用近百年ENSO事件的研究成果和ENSO事件影响年的资料，统计分析近50年来ENSO事件与鲁西北夏季降水关系，为短期气候预测和汛期气象服务提供参考依据。     

Applications géodésiques du système DORIS à l'Institut géographique national

IGN is in charge of the installation and maintenance of the DORIS orbit determination network. More recently, in collaboration with JPL, precise geodetic computations were performed. The goal of this paper is to recall the various historic contributions of IGN to the DORIS system in their international context and then to describe a new estimation technique developed for a multi-satellite mode, making full profit of a better modeling for satellites and ground clocks as well as tropospheric correction parameters. Derived geodetic results demonstrate a precision in the order of 1 cm for station positions. To cite this article: P. Willis et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

琼州海峡岸礁潮间带生物

本文记录了2000年7月琼州海峡西口雷州半岛灯楼角珊瑚岸礁调查采集的25种造礁石珊瑚，以及栖息于湖间带的7类39科88种底栖生物，其大多数种类属于印度-西太平洋热带区系。优势类群是软体动物和节肢动物。珊瑚礁段底栖生物的平均生物量、栖息密度和多样性值分别为1173．30g／m^2，790．0个／m^2和5．69，由于造礁石珊瑚的存在为其他底栖生物提供了良好的生态环境，从而丰富了本区底栖生物的种类组成、数量、分布和群落结构。     

Analyse fréquentielle régionale des précipitations journalières maximales annuelles au Québec,Canada / Regional frequency analysis of annual maximum daily precipitation in Quebec,Canada

Abstract

Abstract A complete regional analysis of daily precipitations is carried out in the southern half of the province of Quebec, Canada. The first step of the regional estimation procedure consists of delineating the homogeneous regions within the area of study and testing for homogeneity within each region. The delineation of homogeneous regions is based on using L-moment ratios. A simulation-based testing of statistical homogeneity allows one to verify the inter-site variability. The second step of the procedure deals with the identification of the regional distribution and the estimation of its parameters. The General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was identified as an appropriate parent distribution. This distribution has already been recommended by several previous research studies for regional frequency analysis of precipitation extremes. The parameters of the GEV distribution are estimated based on the computation of the regional L-CV, L-C_S and the mean of annual maximal daily precipitations. The third step consists of the estimation of precipitation quantiles corresponding to various return periods. The final procedure allows for the estimation of these quantiles at sites where no precipitation information is available. The use of a jack-knife resampling procedure with data from the province of Quebec allows one to demonstrate the robustness and efficiency of the regional estimation procedure. Values of the root mean square error were below 10% for a return period of 20 years, and 20% for a return period of 100 years.     

Assessing uncertainties in a conceptual water balance model using Bayesian methodology / Estimation bayésienne des incertitudes au sein d’une modélisation conceptuelle de bilan hydrologique

Abstract

Abstract The aim of this study was to estimate the uncertainties in the streamflow simulated by a rainfall–runoff model. Two sources of uncertainties in hydrological modelling were considered: the uncertainties in model parameters and those in model structure. The uncertainties were calculated by Bayesian statistics, and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was used to simulate the posterior parameter distribution. The parameter uncertainty calculated by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was compared to maximum likelihood estimates which assume that both the parameters and model residuals are normally distributed. The study was performed using the model WASMOD on 25 basins in central Sweden. Confidence intervals in the simulated discharge due to the parameter uncertainty and the total uncertainty were calculated. The results indicate that (a) the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and the maximum likelihood method give almost identical estimates concerning the parameter uncertainty, and (b) the uncertainties in the simulated streamflow due to the parameter uncertainty are less important than uncertainties originating from other sources for this simple model with fewer parameters.     

714SD多普勒雷达在强降水中的应用

本文针对近几年汕头地区出现的强降水天气，重点开展了多普勒天气雷达速度回波及其产品的应用研究，结合相应的天气背景、物理量变化对强度回波和速度场回波作一些分析，归纳总结出台风、冷锋锋面、暖切变、西南急流、脊后槽前辐合区、东风波等不同天气形势下强降水的类型及其回波特征，并尝试性地解释了一些特殊回波的风场结构和天气现象。