阿吾拉勒山西段二叠纪火山岩组合与构造环境分析

阿吾拉勒山体西段发育了厚度巨大的下二叠统火山岩,这些火山岩均属碱性玄武岩系列,以钾质类型为主,钠质类型次之,岩浆演化呈现出跨越B型趋势。这种火山活动是在大陆地壳内部产生的,代表了陆内裂谷演化的早期阶段。在早二叠世末期,由于受到新源运动的影响,这种火山活动被终止了。     

居民收入与通信网络市场经济效益研究--以河北省通信网络为实例

利用Logisitic曲线模型和扩展支撑模型对居民可支配收入预测和单项消费预测，以河北省居民的收入及其消费支出为实例，研究了城镇居民和农民的可支配收入分配和单项边际消费倾向，合理建立了预测模型，并理论计算了1999～2003年的通信消费方面的边际消费倾向、预测了2004～2008年通信消费情况。最后，根据预测结果对通信网络建设提出了一些有价值的建议。     

Reliability assessment of granular filters in embankment dams

Empirical criteria have been used successfully to design filters of most embankment large dam projects throughout the world. However, these empirical rules are only applicable to a particular range of soils tested in laboratory and do not take into account the variability of the base material and filter particle sizes. In addition, it is widely accepted that the safety of fill dams is mainly dependent on the reliability of their filter performance. The work herein presented consists in a new general method for assessing the probability of fulfilling any empirical filter design criteria accounting for base and filter heterogeneity by means of first‐order reliability methods (FORM), so that reliability indexes and probabilities of fulfilling any particular criteria are obtained. This method will allow engineers to estimate the safety of existing filters in terms of probability of fulfilling their design criteria and might also be used as a decision tool on sampling needs and material size tolerances during construction. In addition, sensitivity analysis makes possible to analyse how reliabilities are influenced by different sources of input data. Finally, in case of a portfolio risk assessment, this method will allow engineers to compare the safety of several existing dams in order to prioritize safety investments and it is expected to be a very useful tool to evaluate probabilities of failure due to internal erosion. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

昆仑山口大地震与地形变异常的讨论

针对昆仑山口大地震，总结了多种地形变（大地测量）手段所显示的异常变化及其时空分布，结果显示：8．1级大震前存在空间尺度大，时间尺度的地形变前兆异常，简要介绍了相关的异常图像，给出了初步解释，并对未来震情的发展进行了探讨，认为近期内强震活动向华北迁移的可能性不大。     

The Latest Research Progress on El Nino

Cold water in the deep Pacific can be drawn up to the surface (or west warm water drifts eastwards ) because strong tide increases the mixing of seawater both in vertical and horizontal. In this way greenhouse effect is decreased or increased by means of absorbing (or releasing) CO2. Therefore, La Nina cold event (or El Nino warm event) may occur,which is caused by wanning - up or cooling - down air above the ocean. Volcanic action at sea bottom is also controlled by strong tide.     

基于Windows消息机制的人机交互的研究与应用

结合实例着重介绍了如何通过串行通讯利用Windows的消息机制来解决目前工业设备控制中人机交互的模拟问题,并对这两种技术进行了详细的论述.     

首都圈地区现今断层活动的数学模拟及地震危险性讨论

以首都圈地区现今活动断层上近２０年的位移测量资料为依据，用二维线弹性有限元对该区断层的活动特征进行了拟合，并结合有关资料讨论了该区的地震危险性。结果表明：１９７７－１９８６年间该区主压应力优势方位与华北较一致，约为Ｎ４５°－８０°Ｅ；１９８６－１９９０年其主压应力方向向北偏转，约为Ｎ５°－６０°Ｅ；１９９０年至现在其主压应力又向东偏转，角度大于第一阶段，约为Ｎ８０°－９５°Ｅ。该区的张家口－延庆一带近期有发生中强震的可能；丰镇－阳高－大同地区和凉城－古营盘地区应力较高，也应引起注意。     

Application of stress release models to historical earthquakes from North China

Univariate and multivariate stress release models are fitted to historical earthquake data from North China. It is shown that a better fit is obtained by treating separately the Eastern part of the region, including the North China Plain and Bohai Sea, and the Western part of the region, including the Ordos Plateau and its Eastern boundary. Further improvement is obtained by fitting the large events (M7.6) and smaller events in the Western region by different stress release models. The comparisons are made by computing the likelihoods of the fitted models and discounting the number of parameters used by Akaike's AIC criterion. The models are used to develop long-term risk scenarios for the East and West regions.     

西天山达巴特火山岩的形成环境及对斑岩型矿化的制约

本文通过对西天山地区比较典型的达巴特斑岩铜钼矿床矿区范围内出露上的英安岩和花岗斑岩进行了系统的岩石地球化学分析,对英安岩和流纹斑岩中的锆石进行了SHRIMP U-Pb定年研究,分别获得了315.9±5.9Ma和278.7±5.7Ma。岩石化学、微量以及稀土元素特征表明从英安岩到花岗斑岩,岩体具有明显的分异演化特征和很好的继承性。火山岩和次火山岩的精确定年为准确厘定火山岩形成的时限和地球动力学背景提供了依据。结合已有的Re-Os法获得的矿化年龄,表明晚石炭世末-早二叠世初（278.7±5.7Ma）,西天山地区进入板块碰撞-板内伸展阶段,由于板内幔根的部分熔化,造成深源斑岩岩浆侵位,在达巴特矿区形成了由花岗斑岩、流纹斑岩和流纹质凝灰熔岩组成的椭圆形火山机构,并导致相关矿床的形成。     

Spatial data for landslide susceptibility, hazard, and vulnerability assessment: An overview

The aim of this paper is to discuss a number of issues related to the use of spatial information for landslide susceptibility, hazard, and vulnerability assessment. The paper centers around the types of spatial data needed for each of these components, and the methods for obtaining them. A number of concepts are illustrated using an extensive spatial data set for the city of Tegucigalpa in Honduras. The paper intends to supplement the information given in the “Guidelines for Landslide Susceptibility, Hazard and Risk Zoning for Land Use Planning” by the Joint ISSMGE, ISRM and IAEG Technical Committee on Landslides and Engineered Slopes (JTC-1). The last few decades have shown a very fast development in the application of digital tools such as Geographic Information Systems, Digital Image Processing, Digital Photogrammetry and Global Positioning Systems. Landslide inventory databases are becoming available to more countries and several are now also available through the internet. A comprehensive landslide inventory is a must in order to be able to quantify both landslide hazard and risk. With respect to the environmental factors used in landslide hazard assessment, there is a tendency to utilize those data layers that are easily obtainable from Digital Elevation Models and satellite imagery, whereas less emphasis is on those data layers that require detailed field investigations. A review is given of the trends in collecting spatial information on environmental factors with a focus on Digital Elevation Models, geology and soils, geomorphology, land use and elements at risk.