基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

Time–space fractional governing equations of transient groundwater flow in confined aquifers: Numerical investigation

In order to model non‐Fickian transport behaviour in groundwater aquifers, various forms of the time–space fractional advection–dispersion equation have been developed and used by several researchers in the last decade. The solute transport in groundwater aquifers in fractional time–space takes place by means of an underlying groundwater flow field. However, the governing equations for such groundwater flow in fractional time–space are yet to be developed in a comprehensive framework. In this study, a finite difference numerical scheme based on Caputo fractional derivative is proposed to investigate the properties of a newly developed time–space fractional governing equations of transient groundwater flow in confined aquifers in terms of the time–space fractional mass conservation equation and the time–space fractional water flux equation. Here, we apply these time–space fractional governing equations numerically to transient groundwater flow in a confined aquifer for different boundary conditions to explore their behaviour in modelling groundwater flow in fractional time–space. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed time–space fractional governing equation for groundwater flow in confined aquifers may provide a new perspective on modelling groundwater flow and on interpreting the dynamics of groundwater level fluctuations. Additionally, the numerical results may imply that the newly derived fractional groundwater governing equation may help explain the observed heavy‐tailed solute transport behaviour in groundwater flow by incorporating nonlocal or long‐range dependence of the underlying groundwater flow field.     

Predicting quantiles of water quality from catchment characteristics

Water quality is often highly variable both in space and time, which poses challenges for modelling the more extreme concentrations. This study developed an alternative approach to predicting water quality quantiles at individual locations. We focused on river water quality data that were collected over 25 years, at 102 catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia. We analysed and modelled spatial patterns of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the concentrations of sediments, nutrients and salt, with six common constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate-nitrite (NO_x), and electrical conductivity (EC). To predict the spatial variation of each quantile for each constituent, we developed statistical regression models and exhaustively searched through 50 catchment characteristics to identify the best set of predictors for that quantile. The models predict the spatial variation in individual quantiles of TSS, TKN and EC well (66%–96% spatial variation explained), while those for TP, FRP and NO_x have lower performance (37%–73% spatial variation explained). The most common factors that influence the spatial variations of the different constituents and quantiles are: annual temperature, percentage of cropping land area in catchment and channel slope. The statistical models developed can be used to predict how low- and high-concentration quantiles change with landscape characteristics, and thus provide a useful tool for catchment managers to inform planning and policy making with changing climate and land use conditions.     

FEASIBLE STUDY ON THE INTEGRATION SYSTEM FOR THE SPACE MONITORING OF MAJOR EARTHQUAKES AND VOLCANOES IN TERRESTRIAL LAND

With the rapid development of space technology, earth observation technology and sky observatory technolo-gy, they have played a more and more important part in monitoring and predicting of earthquakes and volcanoes in the terres-trial land. In recent years, the related agencies have done the experiments and researches on monitoring and predicting ofearthquakes and volcanoes in the forewarning period by means of many approaches, such as satellite thermal infrared re-mote sensing (TIRS), Global Positioning System (GPS), differential interferometric synthesis aperture radar (D-INSAR),astronomical time-latitude residual anomaly, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), etc. A quite large number of re-search foundation has been built in the fundamental theories and application methods. The experiments and researcheshave shown that these technology is efficient methods for high frequency crust movement. If the existed separate scientificforces and results are possibly assembled together to form a more complete integration monitoring system with the combina-tion of space, sky observation, ground, deep geology and macro anomaly, it will come into a new stage of monitoring andpredicting of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.     

Palaeointensity In the Pelagic Realm: Marine Sediment Data Compared With Archaeomagnetic and Lake Sediment Records

Summary. Four box cores collected from the Ontong—Java plateau during the Eurydice expedition have been used to make relative geomagnetic palaeo-intensity measurements. Rock magnetic measurements on the sediments show that they are characterized by a uniform magnetic mineralogy, and that they are suitable for relative intensity estimates. These are obtained by normalizing the NRM by an ARM imparted in a low DC bias field. the palaeoceanographic event known as the preservation spike is used to establish a crude time-scale for the record so that it may be compared with other data from the same region, and also with global palaeointensity estimates. the marine sediment data are quite similar to Australian intensity data from lake sediments and archaeomagnetic sources, but as might be expected exhibit some obvious differences from the global record.     

莱州湾南岸潍河下游地区咸水入侵灾害成因及特征

通过对莱州湾南岸咸水入侵较严重地潍河下游地区晚更新世以来沉积特征及现代自然环境条件变化的分析，探讨了沉积相对咸水入侵产生及空间范围特征的环境机理。晚更新世以来的三次海平面升降变化造成了潍河下游地区海陆沉积环境交替，形成了巨厚的海陆交互相沉积层。海进时期，大面积的滨海平原被淹没，在近海平原洼地滞留的海水经过蒸发、浓缩变为卤水，成为咸水入侵的物源；海退后陆源碎屑在滨海地区沉积形成了巨厚的古河道砂层。20世纪70年代末期以来，随着对地下淡水的过度开采，淡咸水水头压力差减小．卤水通过古河道砂层快速南侵。通过对潍河下游地区100余个地质钻孔水化学连续监测资料分析，阐明了咸水入侵的特征，有针对性地提出了咸水入侵的防治措施。     

SOME IMPORTANT CHARACTERISTICS OFSURFACE ALBEDO OF CHINA IN RECENT YEARS

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S－闭空间上的函数

研究了当Ｘ为Ｓ－闭空间时，Ｃ（Ｘ）的子集Ｆ为紧的充要条件，从而扩充了著名的Ａｓｃｏｌｉ定理。     

台湾海峡西岸重力场变化梯度场图像分析

讨论了应用曲面拟合技术和利用离散的重力观测点的重力变化对特定研究区的重力场变化进行数值模拟以获取该区重力变化空间梯度场图像的具体方法;并应用该方法获得了2004年3月福建安溪3.6级地震前的重力变化空间梯度场图像,发现空间梯度场图像能清晰地反映出地震前重力场群体性变化的差异性;利用此方法对2005年6月~2006年3月间台湾海峡西岸重力场变化进行数值模拟,获得其空间梯度场图像。