DNQ3型能见度仪故障分析及校准方法研究

为有效提高国家地面气象观测站能见度仪观测数据准确性和设备运行稳定性,对能见度仪开展日常维护、核查校准、数据质控和故障修复等工作显得尤为重要。该文通过对DNQ3型前向散射能见度仪硬件结构和基本工作原理的介绍,以及对一些典型故障进行分析,总结出能见度仪的检测维修流程,归纳了对应的故障解决措施,凝练出该型能见度仪的核查校准和疑误数据质控方法,为一线业务人员开展能见度仪常规维护、故障排查、运行监控等提供借鉴。     

1991 年江淮暴雨的定量预报检验

利用Threat Score方法，对1991年6月12—15日，6月29日—7月12日江淮持续暴雨的定量预报进行了检验。结果表明，对于大雨和暴雨预报，目前主观预报优于客观预报。数值预报在降雨定量预报的某些方面有了一定突破。     

从地名看开疆文化在海南岛的传播扩散

开疆文化是一种开发，开拓边疆的文化，开疆文化的传播是通过众多文化要素的逐渐渗透，传输而实现整体状况改变的，开疆文化在海南的传播扩散及其历史影响则又可以从地名等文化要素的演变中得到反映，进而从一个侧面印证开疆文化在海南岛的传播，扩散及影响。     

FORECASTING IMPACTS OF HYDRAULIC STRUCTURESON AN ALLUVIAL RIVER

In the last decades the construction of large hydraulic projects on alluvial rivers in China has spurred the development of both physical and one-dimensional mathematical modeling to the point that deposition and erosion predicted by modeling in either way conform to prototype observations over periods of 3 to 19 years. The prototype data are those of Gezhouba on the Yangtze River and Danjiangkou on the Han River. The accuracy attained is in the neighborhood of 20% which is considered good enough in sedimentation engineering. Thus these techniques of modeling may be applied to forecast the impacts of hydraulic structures on an alluvial river. Mathematical modeling in 2 space variables has also been developed, but still awaits further verification.     

Soil erosion assessment and its verification using the Universal Soil Loss Equation and Geographic Information System: a case study at Boun,Korea

This study is aimed at the evaluation of the hazard of soil erosion and its verification at Boun, Korea, using a Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing. Precipitation, topographic, soil, and land use data were collected, processed, and constructed into a spatial database using GIS and remote sensing data. Areas that had suffered soil erosion were analysed and mapped using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). The factors that influence soil erosion are rainfall erosivitiy (R) from the precipitation database, soil erodibility (K) from the soil database, slope length and steepness (LS) from the topographic database, and crop and management (C) and conservation supporting practices (P) from the land use database. Land use was classified from Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite images. The soil erosion map verified use of the landslide location data. Landslide locations were identified in the Boun area from interpretation of aerial photographs and field surveys.     

“雨燕”中风暴算法在北京奥运天气预报示范项目中的应用及改进

介绍了临近预报系统“雨燕”中的风暴系列算法, 包括风暴识别、 风暴追踪、 基于TREC技术的风暴位置预报, 以及预报位置实时评分算法等。利用2008年北京奥运期间出现的多个强对流天气, 统计出该风暴产品在30 min和60 min预报时效的绝对距离误差分别约为13 km和23 km。分析了北京奥运天气预报示范项目期间该风暴产品误差较大的原因, 主要集中于TREC技术本身及其适用范围, 以及风暴预报方案中处理细节的不足, 具体为TREC技术不适用于孤立的回波单体, 雷达探测边界对TREC技术的影响, TREC矢量有时呈现出一定的空间不连续性, 以及对孤立少动单体的不当处理等。针对上述原因, 提出了一系列的改进方案, 包括对用于风暴位置预报的TREC矢量增加一致性检验, 利用风暴的历史轨迹校正不恰当的TREC矢量; 对TREC技术中象素阵列大小进行统计分析, 选择最适合北京地区的阵列大小; 风暴预报位置超出回波范围时新的处理技巧等。利用北京奥运期间的强对流资料, 对改进后的风暴算法进行评估。结果表明, 一方面, 改进后的算法能较好地控制风暴预报位置的绝对误差, 在30 min和60 min预报时效, 绝对误差分别减小了25%和26%。另一方面, 由于预报位置精度的提高, 能够提升相邻时刻风暴匹配的效率, 使得与以前算法相比有更多的风暴样本参与了各个预报时效的评分。     

利用TRMM卫星资料对人工增雨云系模式云微观场预报能力的检验

文中利用TRMM卫星测雨雷达探测反演的云水、雨水、云冰和降冰4种云参数产品及实况降水资料,对比检验该人工增雨云系业务模式对云微观场和地面降水场的预报能力.结果表明,人工增雨云系模式系统对降水的预报能力要略优于现行业务运行的GRAPES模式;人工增雨云系模式系统能较好地预报云系系统云物理微观量的垂直结构特征,模式预报的微观场与卫星监测吻合较好;在播撒窗区的水平分布上,模式预报的各水凝物分布形势和强中心位置与卫星监测一致,其大小也接近监测值;人工增雨云系模式能较好地预报云的微观场和天气形势场,可作为云系人工增雨条件决策的重要参考依据.     

基于SBAS-InSAR技术的金沙江流域沃达村巨型老滑坡形变分析

近年来突发性高位滑塌灾害日益频发,造成恶劣影响。这类地质灾害调查难度高、隐蔽性强,单靠群测群防和地质调查难以解决灾害的防治问题。随着雷达遥感卫星数据质量的不断提升,合成孔径干涉雷达测量(InSAR)中的SBAS-InSAR技术为特大型老滑坡灾前形变探测提供了新的技术途径。利用SBAS-InSAR技术对金沙江流域沃达村滑坡进行地表形变监测,获取了2017年3月30日至2019年9月28日内的形变结果,划定了强烈形变区(Ⅰ雷达)、均匀形变区(Ⅱ雷达),分析了滑坡复活区整体和局部滑塌地表形变速率、累积位移变化趋势和主裂缝形变情况。同时实地进行了工程地质调查和复核,发现老滑坡复活区变形迹象与SBAS-InSAR技术解译成果有着较好的一致性。表明SBAS-InSAR技术在复杂山区地质灾害监测预警领域有较为广阔的应用前景,为类似老滑坡监测预警提供了新的思路与借鉴。     

The mechanism and verification analysis of permafrost-associated gas hydrate formation in the Qilian Mountain,Northwest China

Muri Basin in the Qilian Mountain is the only permafrost area in China where gas hydrate samples have been obtained through scientific drilling. Fracture-filling hydrate is the main type of gas hydrate found in the Qilian Mountain permafrost. Most of gas hydrate samples had been found in a thin-layer-like, flake and block group in a fracture of Jurassic mudstone and oil shale, although some pore-filling hydrate was found in porous sandstone. The mechanism for gas hydrate formation in the Qilian Mountain permafrost is as follows: gas generation from source rock was controlled by tectonic subsidence and uplift--gas migration and accumulation was controlled by fault and tight formation--gas hydrate formation and accumulation was controlled by permafrost. Some control factors for gas hydrate formation in the Qilian Mountain permafrost were analyzed and validated through numerical analysis and laboratory experiments. CSMGem was used to estimate the gas hydrate stability zone in the Qilian permafrost at a depth of 100–400 m. This method was used to analyze the gas composition of gas hydrate to determine the gas composition before gas hydrate formation. When the overlying formation of gas accumulation zone had a permeability of 0.05 × 10⁻¹⁵ m² and water saturation of more than 0.8, gas from deep source rocks was sealed up to form the gas accumulation zone. Fracture-filling hydrate was formed in the overlap area of gas hydrate stability zone and gas accumulation zone. The experimental results showed that the lithology of reservoir played a key role in controlling the occurrence and distribution of gas hydrate in the Qilian Mountain permafrost.     

控制论与人工影响天气II.工程控制论在人工增雨作业中的应用与建模

人工增雨已有60余年历史,虽已取得很多成绩,仍存在很多亟待解决的科学技术问题,典型问题如作业具有一定的主观性及其与效果检验有脱节.控制论研究如何对系统施加控制作用使其表现出预定行为.作者研究工程控制论在人工增雨作业中的应用与建模问题,将工程控制论引入人工增雨作业,称作“局部控制”方法.以冷云的人工催化过程为例,以单容加延迟的过程来简化单块冷云催化核化过程,建立了有反馈的冷云催化框架模型.根据效果调整催化剂的播撒率以实施控制作用,使作业后的雨云关键参数达到预期值.这种“局部控制”方法,可使现有作业更科学化和客观定量化,只在作业设备中增加一通讯单元和作为传感/变送器以及控制器的一套专业软件即可.“局部控制”方案也可嵌入以自然控制论为框架的大范围全面全程控制问题中,简化作业的方案.