Estimation of transit trip production using Factorial Kriging with External Drift: an aggregated data case study

Studies in transportation planning routinely use data in which location attributes are an important source of information. Thus, using spatial attributes in urban travel forecasting models seems reasonable. The main objective of this paper is to estimate transit trip production using Factorial Kriging with External Drift (FKED) through an aggregated data case study of Traffic Analysis Zones in São Paulo city, Brazil. The method consists of a sequential application of Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and Kriging with External Drift (KED). The traditional Linear Regression (LR) model was adopted with the aim of validating the proposed method. The results show that PCA summarizes and combines 23 socioeconomic variables using 4 components. The first component is introduced in KED, as secondary information, to estimate transit trip production by public transport in geographic coordinates where there is no prior knowledge of the values. Cross-validation for the FKED model presented high values of the correlation coefficient between estimated and observed values. Moreover, low error values were observed. The accuracy of the LR model was similar to FKED. However, the proposed method is able to map the transit trip production in several geographical coordinates of non-sampled values.     

Some elements of mathematical information theory and total inversion algorithm applied to travel time inversion

The total inversion algorithm and some elements of Mathematical Information Theory are used in the treatment of travel-time data belonging to a seismic refraction experiment from the southern segment (Sardinia Channel) of the European Geotraverse Project. The inversion algorithm allows us to improve a preliminary propagating model obtained by means of usual trial and error procedure and to quantify the resolution degree of parameters defining the crust and upper mantle of such a model. Concepts related to Mathematical Information Theory detect some seismic profiles of the refraction experiment which give the most homogeneous coverage of the model in terms of number of trajectories crossing it. Finally, the efficiency of the inversion procedure is quantified and the uncertainties regarding knowledge of different parts of the model are also evaluated.     

3D structure of the Earth's crust beneath the northern part of the Bohemian Massif

The SUDETES 2003 wide-angle refraction/reflection experiment covered the area of the south-western Poland and the northern Bohemian Massif. The good quality data that were gathered combined with the data from previous experiments (POLONAISE'97, CELEBRATION 2000) allowed us to prepare a 3D seismic model of the crust and uppermost mantle for this area. We inverted travel times of both refracted and reflected P waves using the JIVE3D package. This allowed us to obtain a model of P-wave velocity distribution as well as the shape of major boundaries in the crust. We also present a detailed uncertainty analysis for both the boundary depths and the velocity field. In doing the uncertainty analysis we found an interesting, strong dependence between uncertainty and inversion scheme (order of used phases). We also compared the model with surface geology and found good correlation between velocity inhomogeneities in the uppermost crust (down to 2 km) and major geological units. The higher velocity lower crust (6.9–7.2 km/s) could result from remelting of the lower crust or magmatic underplating.     

桥头堡战略下德宏发展“非大众型旅游”的探讨——以瑞丽市珠宝旅游为例

非大众旅游是发展中国家倡导一种新的旅游形式。本文介绍非大众旅游概念及特点,并根据德宏的区位、社会经济、旅游资源条件,阐述非大众旅游在德宏州发展的可行性。瑞丽市在社会经济、旅游资源、旅游市场等方面具备了发展非大众旅游的条件,但目前缺少相应的政策引导。根据瑞丽市珠宝旅游的特点,提出了发展非大众旅游的相关策略,地方政府可以通过政策引导、制定科学的旅游规划等工作,优先发展非大众旅游,促进旅游持续发展。     

Quick Phase Identification for Dense Seismic Array with Aid from Long Term Phase Records of Co-located Sparse Permanent Stations

The phase identification and travel time picking are critical for seismic tomography, yet it will be challenging when the numbers of stations and earthquakes are huge. We here present a method to quickly obtain P and S travel times of pre-determined earthquakes from mobile dense array with the aid from long term phase records from co-located permanent stations. The records for 1 768 M ≥ 2.0 events from 2011 to 2013 recorded by 350 ChinArray stations deployed in Yunnan Province are processed with an improved AR-AIC method utilizing cumulative envelope and rectilinearity. The reference arrivals are predicted based on phase records from 88 permanent stations with similar spatial coverage, which are further refined with AR-AIC. Totally, 718 573 P picks and 512 035 S picks are obtained from mobile stations, which are 28 and 22 times of those from permanent stations, respectively. By comparing the automatic picks with manual picks from 88 permanent stations, for M ≥ 3.0 events, 81.5% of the P-pick errors are smaller than 0.5 second and 70.5% of S-pick errors are smaller than 1 second. For events with a lower magnitude, 76.5% P-pick errors fall into 0.5 second and 69.5% S-pick errors are smaller than 1 second. Moreover, the Pn and Sn phases are easily discriminated from directly P/S, indicating the necessity of combining traditional auto picking and integrating machine learning method.     

共反射元弧叠加方法在火山岩成像中的应用

常规叠加方法假设叠加的地震道集的反射波来自地下同一个反射点,而地表观测到 的反射波场在空间上小于菲涅尔体范围是不可分辨的. 本文根据火山岩体特征,用元弧描述 火山岩的反射界面. 将来自菲涅尔体范围内的反射波沿着元弧界面求和,进而扩大叠加次数 ,达到增加反射信号能量提高地震反射波的叠加成像质量的目的. 文中给出了反射波走时参 数与地下元弧反射界面之间的联系和叠加实现的步骤. 计算结果表明,元弧叠加方法能够提 高剖面的信噪比,增加反射波同相轴的连续性.     

Travel distance of failed slopes during 2004 Chuetsu earthquake and its evaluation in terms of energy

A number of slope failures during the 2004 Niigataken Chuetsu earthquake were investigated, revealing that the travel distance becomes longer as the slope gets gentler and the failed soil mass gets larger. An energy-based approach, proposed in previous research to evaluate the travel distance of failed slopes, is modified by adding the model test results and introducing a simple evaluation method. The energy approach is then applied to a number of slopes failed during the earthquake to back-calculate mobilized friction coefficients, revealing their strong dependency on initial slope inclinations. The friction coefficient was found to be smaller than the initial slope inclination for gentler slopes, indicating that the failed soil mass tends to accelerate. In contrast, that for steeper slopes was higher than initial slope inclination. The friction coefficient was found to decrease with increasing volume of failed slope, which is quite consistent with previous case studies including large non-seismic landslides.     

浅析中国地区体波走时层析成像研究进展

将中国地区划分为东西两部分详细地讨论了中国地区体波走时层析成像研究现状。总结了中国地区三维速度结构的一些特征：地震波速度存在明显的横向不均匀性,甚至在1100km左右深入还保留了这一特点,浅部层面地震波速度图像与地表已知的地质特征有较好的相关性,速度图像与地震活动性有一定的对应关系,岩石层厚度及地壳厚度的起伏状况等;最后分析了目前中国地区体波走时层析成像研究工作的特点并提出了一种可能的发展趋势。     

天水地震台最大振幅面波与初至波到时差和震中距的关系

根据天水地震台ＳＫ地震仪近年来记录的３３８个震例的资料,用最小二乘法求出最大振幅面波与初至波至时差同震中距的关系式,并与Ｊ－Ｂ表进行了对比,结果表明,用Ｊ－Ｂ表计算出的震中距与实际震中距的偏差较大,用本给出的关系式和走时表估算震中距可以缩小误差,提高定位精度。     

飑线的非线性重力波行波解模型

本文提出了一个飑线的非线性重力波行波解模型,并将该模型与实际飑线作了比较,结果表明,该模型可反映出飑线的主要特征.