Vulnerability assessment in a volcanic risk evaluation in Central Mexico through a multi-criteria-GIS approach

The Valley of Toluca is a major industrial and agricultural area in Central Mexico, especially the City of Toluca, the capital of The State of Mexico. The Nevado de Toluca volcano is located to the southwest of The Toluca Basin. Results obtained from the vulnerability assessment phase of the study area (5,040 km² and 42 municipalities) are presented here as a part of a comprehensive volcanic risk assessment of The Toluca Basin. Information has been gathered and processed at a municipal level including thematic maps at 1:250,000 scale. A database has been built, classified and analyzed within a GIS environment; additionally, a Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) approach was applied as an aid for the decision-making process. Cartographic results were five vulnerability maps: (1) Total Population, (2) Land Use/Cover, (3) Infrastructure, (4) Economic Units and (5) Total Vulnerability. Our main results suggest that the Toluca and Tianguistenco urban and industrial areas, to the north and northeast of The Valley of Toluca, are the most vulnerable areas, for their high concentration of population, infrastructure, economic activity, and exposure to volcanic events.     

Chemical characteristics of the crater lakes of Popocatetetl, El Chichon, and Nevado de Toluca volcanoes, Mexico

Three crater lakes from Mexican volcanoes were sampled and analyzed at various dates to determine their chemical characteristics. Strong differences were observed in the chemistry among the three lakes: Nevado de Toluca, considered as dormant, El Chichón at a post-eruptive stage, and Popocatépetl at a pre-eruptive stage. Not surprisingly, no influence of volcanic activity was found at the Nevado de Toluca volcano, while the other volcanoes showed a correlation between the changing level of activity and the evolution of chemical trends. Low pHs (<3.0) were measured in the water from the active volcanoes, while a pH of 5.6 was measured at the Nevado de Toluca Sun lake. Changes with time were observed at Popocatépetl and El Chichón. Concentrations of volcanic-gas derived species like Cl⁻, SO₄²⁻ and F⁻ decreased irregularly at El Chichón from 1983 until 1997. Major cations concentrations also diminished at El Chichón. A 100% increase in the SO₄²⁻ content was measured at Popocatépetl between 1985 and 1994. An increase in the Mg/Cl ratio between 1992 (Mg/Cl=0.085) and 1994 (Mg/Cl=0.177) was observed at Popocatépetl, before the disappearance of the crater lake in 1994. It is concluded that chemical analysis of crater lakes may provide a useful additional tool for active-volcano monitoring.     

A 2.5 ka History of Dacitic Magmatism at Nevado de Toluca, Mexico: Petrological, 40Ar/39Ar Dating, and Experimental Constraints on Petrogenesis

After 11·5 ka of quiescence (24·5–13 ka),the Nevado de Toluca volcano started a 2500 year period of activity.This period was characterized by a dome destruction event at13 ka, a small Plinian event at 12·1 ka, and a largePlinian eruption at 10·5 ka. About 10 km³ of magma waserupted that was homogeneous in composition (63·3–65·7SiO₂ wt % whole-rock) and in mineralogy. Pumice consists ofplagioclase (An_30–59) > orthopyroxene (En_56–59)> hornblende >> Fe–Ti oxides + rare apatite (inopx) + biotite, set in a rhyolitic matrix (72–76 SiO₂wt %). ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar analysis of single biotite crystals yieldedages (0·81–4·7 Ma), that do not correspondto eruption ages. The biotite represents partially assimilatedxenocrysts, which could have resided in the magma for only ashort period of time. Mineral chemical data, coupled with hydrothermalexperiments, indicate that prior to eruption the dacitic magmastagnated at a depth of 4·5–6 km below the summitat water pressures of 160–210 MPa and a temperature of824 ± 12°C on the basis of Fe–Ti oxide thermometry,and under water-saturated conditions. To stabilize a homogeneousmagma body of >10 km³ at 824°C in the upper crust, wepropose that reheating of the dacitic reservoir by hotter magmabatches was able to maintain the equilibrium between the temperatureof the magma and the assimilation of wall-rock over a periodof 2500 years. Based on similarities among the juvenile products,we suggest that the three eruptions were fed from the same magmabody. KEY WORDS: explosive volcanism; xenocrystic contamination; Nevado de Toluca, Mexico     

Volcanic hazards zonation of the Nevado de Toluca Volcano,Central Mexico

Nevado de Toluca Volcano (NTV), located in central Mexico, is a large stratovolcano, with an explosive history. The area is one of the most important developing centers (>2 millions) in Mexico and in the last 30 yrs large population growth and expansion have increased the potential risk in case of a reactivation of the volcano. As part of a study to assess volcanic risk, this paper presents the results of the volcanic hazard analysis for the NTV. A total of 150 stratigraphic sections were made in the field and three new ages were obtained. Eruptions from NTV produced a complex sequence of pyroclastic deposits that have affected the area at least 18 times during the last 100,000 yrs. Eight vulcanian, four plinian and one-ultraplinian eruptions as well as the destruction of at least three domes occurred in the last 42,000 yr BP as well as two sector collapses in the last 100,000 yrs. Isopach and isopleth maps for the main ulraplinian eruption were also made. The original cone height (5,080 m.a.s.l) was reconstructed through geomorphologic methods. The maximum distance calculated with the energy line for the block and ash flows was 41 km, 35 km for pumice flows and 45 km for debris avalanches. The dominant wind direction at altitudes of 20–30 km is to the east-northeast from November to March, west-northwest in April and west from May to October. Five hazards maps (block and ash flows, pumice flows, ash fall, debris avalanches, and lahars) were made for the NTV. The pyroclastic flows and lahars represent very high to medium hazard for Toluca, Villa Guerrero, Coatepec, Tianguistengo, Metepec, Tenango, Lerma and Zinacantepec. A new debris avalanche would probably affect the south and northeast because of active faulting (E–W and NW–SE) and existing topographic differences in height.     

Significance of enhanced infiltration due to groundwater extraction on the disappearance of a headwater lagoon system: Toluca Basin, Mexico

Mexico City relies significantly on groundwater resources drawn from the Sistema Lerma well field located in the Toluca Basin, Mexico. Enhanced infiltration caused by groundwater extraction is suspected to be both a prime factor in the disappearance of a lagoon system at the Toluca Basin and a potential risk to long-term groundwater quality. A combined approach of field investigation and numerical modeling was adopted to assess the groundwater-surface water interactions within the lagoon system. Potentiometric data indicate that current downward vertical hydraulic gradients below the lagoon and surrounding wetland area are extremely low suggesting very slow infiltration rates. Geochemical and isotope data from surface water and groundwater sampling also indicate that very little surface water infiltration has occurred. Numerical simulations demonstrate that enhanced surface water infiltration is unlikely to be the primary cause in the significant reduction in size of the lagoon system. Other factors such as modifications to the surface water drainage system and capture of spring flow from the surrounding mountainous regions are likely more significant. Simulations also suggest that contaminants originating in the lagoon system are currently entering nearby production wells although the total contaminant mass flux to the wells is still very low and significantly diluted.

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Resumen La Ciudad de México depende significativamente de los recursos de aguas subterráneas obtenidos del campo de pozos Sistema Lerma ubicado en la Cuenca Toluca, oeste de la Cuenca de México. Se sospecha que la infiltración estimulada causada por extracción intensiva de aguas subterráneas es un factor principal en la desaparición de un sistema de lagunas en la cabeceras del Río Lerma en el centro de México y un riesgo potencial para la calidad de aguas subterráneas a largo plazo en la región. Se adoptó un enfoque combinado de investigación de campo y modelizado numérico para evaluar las interacciones de agua superficial-agua subterránea dentro del sistema de lagunas. Datos potenciométricos indican que los gradientes hidráulicos verticales descendentes actuales, ubicados por debajo de la laguna y vecina área de humedales, son extremadamente bajos sugiriendo ritmos de infiltración muy lentos. Datos geoquímicos e isotópicos provenientes del muestreo de agua superficial y subterránea también indican que ha ocurrido muy poca infiltración de agua superficial. Las simulaciones numéricas demuestran cuantitativamente que no es probable que la infiltración estimulada de agua superficial sea la causa principal en la reducción significativa del tamaño del sistema de lagunas en la cabecera. Otros factores tal como modificaciones al sistema superficial de drenaje de agua y captura de flujo de manantial en las regiones montañosas vecinas son probablemente más significativos. Las simulaciones también sugieren que los contaminantes que se originan en el sistema de lagunas están actualmente ingresando a pozos de producción cercanos aunque el flujo de masa contaminante total a los pozos es aún muy bajo y diluido significativamente en los volúmenes grandes de extracción. La magnitud de la amenaza a largo plazo a la calidad del agua subterránea en los pozos de producción Sistema Lerma proveniente de contaminantes infiltrados es una preocupación y amerita estudios futuros.

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Résumé La Cité de Mexico dépend significativement des ressources en eau souterraine pompées au site de captages de Sistema Lerma, dans le Bassin de Toluca, à lOuest du Bassin de Mexico. Laugmentation de linfiltration, causée par lextraction extensive des eaux souterraines, est suspectée dêtre à la fois un facteur primaire de la disparition dun système de lagons en amont de la rivière Lerma au centre de Mexico, et un risque potentiel à long-terme pour la qualité de leau souterraine dans la région. Uen approche combinée détudes de terrain et de modélisation numérique a été adoptée pour estimer les interactions entre les eaux de surface et les eaux souterraines, au sein du système de lagons. Les données potentiométriques indiquent que les gradients hydrauliques verticaux descendants sont très bas au niveau des lagons, ce qui suppose un taux dinfiltration faible. Les données géochimiques et isotopiques provenant des eaux de surface et souterraines, indiquent également que peu deau de surface sinfiltrent. La simulation numérique démontre quantitativement que laugmentation de linfiltration des eaux de surface nest probablement pas la première cause de réduction des lagons. Dautres facteurs, tels que les modifications du drainage des eaux de surface, laménagement en captage des sources situées aux pieds des montagnes environnantes, sont probablement plus importants. Les simulations suggèrent également que les contaminants provenant des lagons se retrouvent également dans les captages les plus proches, bien que le flux total de contaminants entrant dans les captages reste faible. Les volumes dextraction étant très important ils diluent effectivement les contaminants. Les effets à long-terme de lextraction critique au niveau des forages de Sistema Lerma et de la dégradation de la qualité des eaux souterraines par les contaminants, nécessite une grande attention pour le futur.

     

Simulating pumping-induced regional land subsidence with the use of InSAR and field data in the Toluca Valley, Mexico

A multidisciplinary approach is presented here for quantifying land subsidence in a heavily pumped aquifer system with complex stratigraphy. The methodology consists in incorporating Terzaghi’s 1D instantaneous compaction principle into a 3D groundwater flow model that is then applied and calibrated to reproduce observed hydraulic heads and compaction for the Toluca Valley, Mexico. Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (D-InSAR), a generated 3D-geological model, extensometers, monitoring wells, and available literature are used to constrain the model. The D-InSAR measured subsidence, extensometers, and numerical simulations of subsidence agree relatively well. Simulations show that since regional subsidence began in the mid 1960s there has been up to 2 m of subsidence in the industrial corridor, where heavy pumping and thick clay layers are found. This study shows that an approach using various sources of data is useful in estimating and constraining the vertical component of the inelastic skeletal specific storage.     

Volcanic hazard zonation of the Nevado de Toluca volcano,México

The Nevado de Toluca is a quiescent volcano located 20 km southwest of the City of Toluca and 70 km west of Mexico City. It has been quiescent since its last eruptive activity, dated at ∼ 3.3 ka BP. During the Pleistocene and Holocene, it experienced several eruptive phases, including five dome collapses with the emplacement of block-and-ash flows and four Plinian eruptions, including the 10.5 ka BP Plinian eruption that deposited more than 10 cm of sand-sized pumice in the area occupied today by Mexico City. A detailed geological map coupled with computer simulations (FLOW3D, TITAN2D, LAHARZ and HAZMAP softwares) were used to produce the volcanic hazard assessment. Based on the final hazard zonation the northern and eastern sectors of Nevado de Toluca would be affected by a greater number of phenomena in case of reappraisal activity. Block-and-ash flows will affect deep ravines up to a distance of 15 km and associated ash clouds could blanket the Toluca basin, whereas ash falls from Plinian events will have catastrophic effects for populated areas within a radius of 70 km, including the Mexico City Metropolitan area, inhabited by more than 20 million people. Independently of the activity of the volcano, lahars occur every year, affecting small villages settled down flow from main ravines.