Study of the flood control scheduling scheme for the Three Gorges Reservoir in a catastrophic flood

The Three Gorges Project is the world's largest water conservancy project. According to the design standards for the 1,000‐year flood, flood diversion areas in the Jingjiang reach of the Yangtze River must be utilized to ensure the safety of the Jingjiang area and the city of Wuhan. However, once these areas are used, the economic and life loss in these areas may be very great. Therefore, it is vital to reduce this loss by developing a scheme that reduces the use of the flood diversion areas through flood regulation by the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), under the premise of ensuring the safety of the Three Gorges Dam. For a 1,000‐year flood on the basis of a highly destructive flood in 1954, this paper evaluates scheduling schemes in which flood diversion areas are or are not used. The schemes are simulated based on 2.5‐m resolution reservoir topography and an optimized model of dynamic capacity flood regulation. The simulation results show the following. (a) In accord with the normal flood‐control regulation discharge, the maximum water level above the dam should be not more than 175 m, which ensures the safety of the dam and reservoir area. However, it is necessary to utilize the flood diversion areas within the Jingjiang area, and flood discharge can reach 2.81 billion m³. (b) In the case of relying on the TGR to impound floodwaters independently rather than using the flood diversion areas, the maximum water level above the dam reaches 177.35 m, which is less than the flood check level of 180.4 m to ensure the safety of the Three Gorges Dam. The average increase of the TGR water level in the Chongqing area is not more than 0.11 m, which indicates no significant effect on the upstream reservoir area. Comparing the various scheduling schemes, when the flood diversion areas are not used, it is believed that the TGR can execute safe flood control for a 1,000‐year flood, thereby greatly reducing flood damage.     

大同—阳高Ms6.1地震前兆综合加权信息熵的变化

利用“地震预报计算机专家系统”的思想对大同 -阳高 Ms6 .1地震前每一前兆异常事件进行综合评估 ,以每一异常的最可能发震时间来计算发震概率 ,利用地震前兆综合加权信息熵研究了系统熵值与地震的关系。对华北地区的地震前兆综合加权信息熵研究表明 ,在大同 -阳高 Ms6 .1地震前 ,信息熵出现了明显的减熵有序变化     

低轨道人造卫星(CHAMP、GRACE、GOCE)与高精度地球重力场——卫星重力大地测量的最新发展及其对地球科学的重大影响

评述了卫星重力大地测量的最新发展及其对地球科学的重大影响。为了更好地理解地球内部物理构造与海洋动力学，以及大陆，冰川和海洋的相互作用，改善现有地球重力场模型（包括精度和空间解析度）是非常重要的。IUGG等国际组织对此已经强调了很多年。最近，由德国的GFZ（GeoForschungsZentrum)，美国的NASA（National Aeronautics and Space Adminitration)以及欧洲宇航局ESA（European Space Agency)开发研制了最先进的地球监测技术－SST（Satellite-to-Sateilite Tracking)。其主要特点是利用现有的GPS连续追踪新发射低轨道卫星，并由低轨道卫星对地球重力场作精密观测。已经发射和即将发射的卫星有3颗：GHAMP（Challenging Mini-Satellite Payload for Geophysical Research an Application)已经于2000年发射；GRACE（Gravity Recovery and Climate Experimert)定于2002年发射；GOCE（Gravity Field and Steady-state Ocean Cirulation Explorer)计划2004年发射，它们可以统称为重力卫星。载有SST技术的人造卫星的主要目的是获得具有前所未有的高精度和高空间解析度的全球重力场和大地水准面模型，加强人们对地球内部构造的理解并为海洋和气象研究提供更好地参考。上述3个重力卫星工作在有明显区别的不同波谱内，它们有不同的科学应用，仅有一小部分重合。所以，就应用而言它们是完全互补的。它们在地球科学中的应用将是广泛的，特别对于固体地球物理学，海洋学以及大地测量学等领域，它们将会带来革命性的变化，其意义不亚于GPS。     

台湾海峡西岸重力场变化梯度场图像分析

讨论了应用曲面拟合技术和利用离散的重力观测点的重力变化对特定研究区的重力场变化进行数值模拟以获取该区重力变化空间梯度场图像的具体方法;并应用该方法获得了2004年3月福建安溪3.6级地震前的重力变化空间梯度场图像,发现空间梯度场图像能清晰地反映出地震前重力场群体性变化的差异性;利用此方法对2005年6月~2006年3月间台湾海峡西岸重力场变化进行数值模拟,获得其空间梯度场图像。     

昆仑山口大地震与地形变异常的讨论

针对昆仑山口大地震，总结了多种地形变（大地测量）手段所显示的异常变化及其时空分布，结果显示：8．1级大震前存在空间尺度大，时间尺度的地形变前兆异常，简要介绍了相关的异常图像，给出了初步解释，并对未来震情的发展进行了探讨，认为近期内强震活动向华北迁移的可能性不大。     

滇西动态重力网的分形特征及空间分辨力

介绍了用分形学描述地球物理观测网非均匀分布和联合应用分形特征与Ｓｈａｎｎｏｎ定理确定最佳网格距的方法。研究了滇西动态重力网的分形特征，它的分形维Ｄｆ＝１．２７，最佳网格距ｒ０＝２８ｋｍ。讨论了１９８６年至１９９４年间网区发生的８次Ｍｓ＞５．０级地震前重力场变化的可信性，指出这些变化的波长均大于１００ｋｍ，至少２倍于网的最小空间分辨力，因而是可信的     

三峡重庆库区深部地球物理特征与断裂构造

为了深入研究三峡重庆库区岩石圈动力学特征及其对断裂构造活动的控制和影响．并为之提供基础资料，为三峡重庆库区地震、地质灾害的监测与防治提供基础依据，在已有地球物理资料的基础上，从综合地球物理研究角度出发，通过实测地震测线资料的再解释．采用新的处理技术方法，对本区的东西向主剖面和南北向支测线的地震测深资料进行二维射线追踪处理、Pg波成像；选用场分离技术、位移数字成像技术重新处理了重力和航磁资料，通过联合反演来建立深部二维构造剖面，对剖面所揭示的基底构造特征和地壳结构特征、主要断裂构造特征以及莫霍面的起伏特征进行了精细分析和细致研究．从地球物理平面场特征出发建立了岩石圈构造三维框架。研究结果表明，这样的研究思路准确、方法得当．结论可靠；沿该剖面，把可解译的断裂分为Ⅲ级：Ⅰ级为超岩石圈断裂；Ⅱ级为壳断裂；Ⅲ级为盖层断裂。依据地球物理特征，准确揭示了库区的断裂构造特征，达到了预期效果。     

Elastic solutions for stresses in a transversely isotropic half‐space subjected to three‐dimensional buried parabolic rectangular loads

In many areas of engineering practice, applied loads are not uniformly distributed but often concentrated towards the centre of a foundation. Thus, loads are more realistically depicted as distributed as linearly varying or as parabola of revolution. Solutions for stresses in a transversely isotropic half‐space caused by concave and convex parabolic loads that act on a rectangle have not been derived. This work proposes analytical solutions for stresses in a transversely isotropic half‐space, induced by three‐dimensional, buried, linearly varying/uniform/parabolic rectangular loads. Load types include an upwardly and a downwardly linearly varying load, a uniform load, a concave and a convex parabolic load, all distributed over a rectangular area. These solutions are obtained by integrating the point load solutions in a Cartesian co‐ordinate system for a transversely isotropic half‐space. The buried depth, the dimensions of the loaded area, the type and degree of material anisotropy and the loading type for transversely isotropic half‐spaces influence the proposed solutions. An illustrative example is presented to elucidate the effect of the dimensions of the loaded area, the type and degree of rock anisotropy, and the type of loading on the vertical stress in the isotropic/transversely isotropic rocks subjected to a linearly varying/uniform/parabolic rectangular load. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

滇西北和邻区均衡重力异常特征及其壳内构造

本文以爱黎-海斯卡宁均衡补偿假设模式为基础,利用圆模板编制了滇西北及邻区均衡重力异常图。分析了异常的基本特征与壳内构造的关系,并初步探讨了均衡重力异常和强震活动的相关性。     

辽宁省深部构造特征及其地质意义

本文应用了最新取得的“五统一”区域重力成果，并经过对浅表松散槽（如下辽河断陷，大岩体等）的密度亏损进行补偿改正后，求取了全省的区域重力场及其垂向二次导数，计算了莫氏面等深度图。在分析区域重力场及其垂向二次导数异常特征和莫氏面起伏特征的基础上，划分出辽宁深部构造的基本格局。从平面上探讨了深部构造与地形地势、地质构造及矿产分布的关系，从剖面上剖析了辽宁省地壳分层的宏观特征