低频扩频中伪随机序列产生方法的研究

伪随机序列的产生是实现BPC低频时码发播台扩展频谱技术升级的一个重要环节。针对BPC低频时码发播台的现有系统，提出了伪随机序列的产生方案，并对其性能作了分析。     

Møre Margin: Crustal structure from analysis of Expanded Spread Profiles

Analysis in both the x—t and —p domains of high-quality Expanded Spread Profiles across the Møre Margin show that many arrivals may be enhanced be selective ray tracing and velocity filtering combined with conventional data reduction techniques. In terms of crustal structure the margin can be divided into four main areas: 1) a thicker than normal oceanic crust in the eastern Norway Basin; 2) expanded crust with a Moho depth of 22 km beneath the huge extrusive complex constructed during early Tertiary breakup; 3) the Møre Basin where up to 13–14 km of sediments overlie a strongly extended outer part with a Moho depth at 20 km west of the Ona High; and 4) a region with a 25–27 km Moho depth between the high and the Norwegian coast. The velocity data restricts the continent-ocean boundary to a 15–30 km wide zone beneath the seaward dipping reflector wedges. The crust west of the landward edge of the inner flow is classified as transitional. This region as well as the adjacent oceanic crust is soled by a 7.2–7.4 km s^–1 lower crustal body which may extend beneath the entire region that experienced early Tertiary crustal extension. At the landward end of the transect a 8.5 km s^–1 layer near the base of the crust is recognized. A possible relationship with large positive gravity anomalies and early Tertiary alkaline intrusions is noted.     

STAMP: spatial–temporal analysis of moving polygons

Research questions regarding temporal change in spatial patterns are increasingly common in geographical analysis. In this research, we explore and extend an approach to the spatial–temporal analysis of polygons that are spatially distinct and experience discrete changes though time. We present five new movement events for describing spatial processes: displacement, convergence, divergence, fragmentation and concentration. Spatial–temporal measures of events for size and direction are presented for two time periods, and multiple time periods. Size change metrics are based on area overlaps and a modified cone-based model is used for calculating polygon directional relationships. Quantitative directional measures are used to develop application specific metrics, such as an estimation of the concentration parameter for a von Mises distribution, and the directional rate of spread. The utility of the STAMP methods are demonstrated by a case study on the spread of a wildfire in northwestern Montana.      

A climatological study of nocturnal equatorial F-region irregularities at the west Pacific longitudes by using phase fluctuations of the global positioning system

This study investigated a long-term climatology of nocturnal equatorial F-region irregularities by using phase fluctuations of the global positioning system during the solar cycle of 1996–2006 at the west Pacific longitudes. The results showed that the distribution of the occurrence of irregularities is a two-peak pattern, which peaks in equinoxes with a shallow/deep dip in June/December solstice during high solar activity but with two about the same dips in magnitude in both June and December solstices during low solar activity. Moreover, the most interesting longitudinal effect in the area is in solstice occurrences of irregularities during high solar activity that the irregularities in December solstice months develop easier in the west area but those in June solstice months develop easier in the east area.     

中、低纬度地区电离层不同层结间的耦合对夜晚F区不规则结构的影响

电离层不规则结构的形成和演化与电离层等离子体不稳定性密切相关 .长期以来 ,在中低纬区扩展 -F现象的研究中 ,没有考虑电离层上下层结之间的相互作用 .本文从理论上全面探讨了在中纬度地区 ,E区可变的Pedersen电导率和Hall电导率 ,与F区可变的Pedersen电导率的共同作用对F区梯度漂移不稳定性的影响 ,导出了存在这种耦合时电离层梯度漂移不稳定性的统一表达式 .这一耦合理论不但解释了实际观测中发现的 ,在某些地方电离层F区顶部的不稳定性发生率要高于F区底部这一现象 ;同时还表明 ,电离层E区与F区的耦合对F区夜晚梯度漂移不稳定性的形成不仅会有阻碍作用 ,同时还使得中、低纬度地区的扰动增长具有了方向的选择性 .该理论的一个重要结论是 ,F区中某一地区能否发展出梯度漂移不稳定性 ,并不完全由当地电离层F区的状态决定 ,同一根磁力线连接的、位于不同纬度地区的E区层结对其发展和演化也会有相当大的影响 .     

集合方法在月动力预报信息提取中的应用

本工作将集合方法应用于提取月动力预报有用信息。利用中国气象局国家气候中心Ｔ６３Ｌ１６全球谱模式的５００百帕高度场月集合预报产品（集合成员数为８个，初始场的选取采用滞后方法（ＬＡＦ），即相邻两天的００００，０６００，１２００和１８００ＧＭＴ的初始化资料），就１９９７年１月至５月共１５次预报，分析了集合预报成员间的离散度与预报评分（距平相关系数和均方根误差）的关系，研究了用集合各成员预报离散度作为各个成员逐日预报的权重对月预报效果的影响。结果表明集合预报成员的离散度与预报评分有显著的相关，是有效预报长度Ｎ的一个很好估计；用离散度作为权重平均的月预报高度距平相关系数明显高于算术平均和线性权重，此外个例分析表明月平均环流及其异常的预报得到明显的提高。     

风暴尺度集合预报中的混合初始扰动方法及其在北京2012年“7.21”暴雨预报中的应用

风暴尺度集合预报系统（Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast system,简称SSEFs）中集合成员之间发散度不足一直都是研究的难点。本文尝试了将Barnes空间滤波融入到集合转换卡尔曼滤波（ETKF）更新预报系统中的混合初值扰动法。该方案将ETKF方法的小尺度信息与来自于侧边界条件扰动的大尺度信息相结合,缓解了扰动在侧边界不匹配的问题。通过2012年北京“7.21”暴雨并使用邻位方法对比分析了不同初值扰动方案在不同时间尺度与空间尺度上的特征,在此基础上进一步探讨了构造混合初始扰动法的可行性。结果表明:ETKF试验所构造的初始扰动无法与侧边界条件扰动相匹配,混合后的初始扰动可以有效缓解SSEFs中由于初始扰动与侧边界扰动不匹配产生的虚假波动,其中大尺度信息保留较多的混合试验（ETKF80）和动力降尺度方案（Down）在减少虚假波动方面的效果最优;从集合离散度来看,在前期暖区降水阶段ETKF的离散度在小尺度上最大,随着锋面降水的开始,Down的离散度逐渐超过ETKF,而使用各滤波波段构造的混合试验同时具备ETKF与Down二者的特征。选择合理的滤波波段可以获得最为合理的离散度表现（ETKF180）,说明仅考虑侧边界匹配（Down和ETKF80）并不能获得最合理的集合离散度,应综合考虑其他因素。从降水概率预报结果来看,选取合适的滤波波段所构造的混合扰动试验同样获得了较好的效果。     

Estimation of the responses of axisymmetric bodies in spread irregular waves

A method is presented of estimating the responses of axisymmetric bodies floating in spread irregular seas, using a Laplace transfer-function formulation of a floating body time-domain model. A general-case spread-wave model is formulated, using separate wave excitation transfer functions, and a simplification of this approach is proposed, reducing both model complexity and computation time. Responses are computed using both approaches and a comparison made to assess the circumstances in which the simplified approach may be used effectively. The results are also interpreted to highlight the implications of using an equivalent unidirectional wave as an approximation to a spread wave.     

转柱式散气增氧装置水动力特性的研究

从理论上分析了转柱式散气增氧装置扩散帽的水动力性能和影响进气量、功率消耗等方面的因素。同时选择了两个系列４种技术参数的扩散帽装置进行对比试验，试验结果与理论分析情况基本吻合。通过理论分析与试验测试，最后选定出扩散帽的最佳技术参数。     

中尺度暴雨集合预报系统研发中的初值扰动试验

针对2006年5月24～25日一次暴雨过程, 通过一系列初值扰动试验探讨实际业务中建立集合预报系统的方法。运用45 km的WRF模式构建一个11个成员的集合预报系统来比较分析不同的扰动方案、 扰动的空间结构和扰动振幅对集合预报的影响, 结果表明： （1）初值扰动的空间结构对暴雨集合预报的离散度影响很关键, 而扰动振幅的影响却居次要地位。具有动力学结构的孵化扰动明显优于随机扰动。（2）集合预报比单一控制预报提供了更有价值的预报信息。例如在该个例控制预报中漏报的湖北监利强降水中心, 在集合预报中有20%的概率, 并且实况被包含在集合预报的预报范围之中。集合平均预报也明显优于控制预报\.例如矫正了在控制预报中明显虚报的鄂东北的大暴雨中心, 且集合平均预报的暴雨中心落在实际观测暴雨中心的附近。（3）集合离散度较好地反映了实际降水过程的可预报性。例如应用孵化扰动, 其离散度的空间结构同降水预报误差的空间分布大致对应。