能量分析在台风短期预报业务中的应用

本文以９４１４、９４１５号两个连续北上台风为例，证明能量场的分布与台风移向有着明显的对应关系。     

航空重力测量数学模型及其测量精度分析

基于数学和分析力学角度分别推导了航空矢量重力测量的数学模型,得到了一致的模型公式;给出了矢量模型的3个分量形式,其中垂直方向的分量就是标量重力测量的数学模型;简要介绍了我国研制成功的航空标量重力测量系统CHAGS的数据处理的过程,分析了标量重力测量中测线交叉点和重复测线的重力异常的精度;根据实测数据计算的结果表明:测线交叉点重力异常不符值的标准差约为5×10-5ms-2左右,重复测线的内符合精度优于5×10-5ms-2,达到了预期的要求。     

北京54坐标转换至WGS-84坐标的方法

本文首先阐述了北京54坐标转换至WGS-84坐标的意义,介绍了北京54坐标转换至WGS-84坐标的实现过程及其方法.最后通过计算江苏省北京54坐标数据和C级GPS网数据对两种坐标转换方法进行了比较分析,并得出了有益的结论.     

一种短期气候预测集成技术的应用研究

以递归正权综合决策方案为基础，结合实际情况，首先对多种预报方法进行筛选，选取预报效果较好并且较为稳定的几种方法参与集成，并将集成结果写成Micaps数据格式，最终以图形方式显示出来。评分结果表明：该集成方法对温度预报和灾害指数预报较权重平均集成法效果好；而对月雨量预报和季度雨量、温度预报则与权重平均方法相当；但是对季度雨量、温度预报来说，集成后预测精度有明显提高。同时，将集成结果通过Micaps工作平台以图形方式显示，不仅客观、定量，而且更一目了然．     

云南水汞在姚安6.5级地震前的异常特征分析

对2000年1月15日姚安6．5级地震前后云南水汞异常进行分析研究，结果表明：在9个观测台站中，地震前有1个观测台站的水汞出现中期趋势异常，1个台站的水汞出现远震异常，4个台站的水汞出现短期异常，1个台站的水汞出现临震异常。地震前3个月内，水汞短期异常有活跃，平静的过程，在平静中(仅1个台站出现临震异常)发生姚安6．5级地震。姚安地震发生在距出现远震异常的水汞观测台站70km的地方。出现远震异常的水汞观测台站附近，可能是未来强震的发震地区。     

2003年新疆石河子5.4级地震前地震活动异常分析

分析了2003年2月14日石河子5．4级地震前北天山地震活动图像和地震学参数异常过程。5．4级地震发生在2002年北天山4级地震集中活动区空段，震前12项地震学参数时间进程存在中、短期异常，3项地震波参数出现短期异常。震前3个月乌鲁木齐震情窗出现超警戒线异常。震前10天震中附近地区地震和震群活动显著。     

青海平安电磁辐射在中强震前短期前兆异常特征及预报效能研究

分析和整理了青海平安电磁辐射台自1993年7月以来的资料，发现震前平安单台电磁辐射在中强地震临震前有最大脉冲信号，并通过对无震异常，地震异常的分析判断，对其预报效能进行了R值评价。     

广州东山湖宏观异常的判定及启示

2001年10月底广州东山湖水面出现宏观异常现象，市民怀疑为地震前兆异常。经过对异常的调查落实，结合广东省地震形势及前兆资料的分析研究，准确判断东山湖的异常现象并非地震宏观异常现象，消除了市民的不安与恐慌。     

关于在地震预报中遇到的几个问题的探讨

地震台站工作人员 ,在进行观测资料分析、地震预报研究过程中 ,往往会遇到的几个问题 :1、手段单一 ,对于前兆现象无法全面表述。 2、如何识别异常与地震之间的关系。 3、如何兼顾点和面的关系。     

Geochemistry of organic matter and elements of black shale during weathering in Northern Guizhou,Southwestern China: Their mobilization and inter-connection

Different from previous studies on effect of weathering upon geochemical variation along a single weathered profile, this paper provides a new methodology validated by comparing a weathered outcrop samples and their stratigraphic counterpart un-weathered core samples in a nearby shallow borehole. This outcrop and borehole penetrated the Ordovician-Silurian Wufeng–Longmaxi shales, located in the same anticline structure in the northern part of Guizhou Province, Southern China. The mineral composition, major, trace and rare earth elements (REEs) composition and Rock-Eval parameters of outcrop and core samples were analyzed and compared. Organic matter (OM) was observed in the microscope and extracted for elements analysis. The results show that short-term weathering still has significant influence on OM, mineral and elemental composition of black shales. The elements composition shows the outcrop profile was moderately weathered. The REEs compositions do not alter much during weathering process and the REEs composition and their relative ratios still are valid for rock origin determination. The OM, mainly composed by graptolite and bitumen, even entering the highly-over thermal maturity, is still sensitive to the weathering with a systematic loss 30–50% of TOC along the outcrop profile, which suggests that the OM consumption is predominantly controlled by weathering duration and the distance from the weathering surface. In turn, OM has significant influence on the trace elements transportation behavior during weathering. Some trace elements associated with the OM such as V, Cr, Th, U, Ni and Co, change significantly in their absolute concentration during weathering, but their relative ratios do not necessarily change too much and might be still reliable proxies for paleo-environmental determination. The mobility of shale minerals during weathering is in the following order: plagioclase?>?potassium feldspar and dolomite >pyrite and OM. Short-term weathering can also result in considerable transportation of elements and significant variation of minerals content in black shale, which may pose potentially high environmental and engineering risk in the regions rich in black shale.