井中激电地-井方式井旁球体正反演

以激发极化法中的地-井方式中的体极化球形体作为研究对象,采用解析法对地下半空间的电位场进行求解,利用提取出的井中二次场异常电位差进行反演,得出极化球体的球心离井的距离和球心的埋深。通过计算机进行正反演模拟,验证了进行正反演计算的解析式的正确性,并从物理意义上对正反演过程中出现的现象进行分析。最后给出该方法的适用条件以及注意事项。研究对激发极化法地下勘探目标的定量分析具有明确意义。     

努力提高三维地震勘探精度，为西部煤炭工业做出新贡献

以国家重大产业技术开发专项“西部煤炭资源高精度三维地震勘探技术”项目的由来、意义和总体研究目标为引,概括的介绍了项目依托工程中各个专项技术研究完成情况,并对非均匀介质成像技术、高精度三维地震静校正技术、高密度采集技术、特观技术、岩性反演技术、属性体解释技术等六项重大关键技术取得的突破性进展进行了重点说明。指出随着我国煤炭生产重点的逐步西移,应加强诸如叠前、叠后深度偏移技术的研究,以解决复杂山区三维地震面元内地震反射波散射问题,提高其三维地震勘探精度,为西部煤炭工业做出新贡献!     

地震综合效应场函数及其在地震预报中的应用──（一）地震综合效应场函数及其计算方法

在系统地分析了目前各种测震学地震预报方法科学思路的基础上,认为测震学地震预报方法基本上可以分为两大类。一类是以已经发生的一些地震作为未来可能发生的地震的“因”,即由于已经发生的地震对区域应力场的影响,导致未来发生较强地震。这一类包括的预报方法较多,如空区、条带、ｂ值、地震迁移、相关地震等等及其由此衍生出来的各种方法。另一类是把已经发生的一些地震作为区域应力场增强的“果”,即已经发生的地震是区域应力场增强过程中的一种反映,而未来地震不一定是已经发生的地震所导致的结果。这一类包括“地震窗口”、小震群活动等方法。针对第一类方法,各种预报方法都是力图从地震三要素中提取未来地震的信息,而具体作法又都是利用地震三要素这个多维空间的某个剖面。为了从地震活动诸要素的多维空间提取综合信息,我们对每个地震加入了破裂面方位,构成了地震第四要素,并依据地震４要素建立了地震综合效应场函数。地震综合效应场函数概括了多种测震学地震预报方法的科学思路和预报经验,从而可以形成测震学的综合预报方法。     

Crustal structure of the Eastern Alps along the TRANSALP profile from wide-angle seismic tomography

The objective of the TRANSALP project is an investigation of the Eastern Alps with regard to their deep structure and dynamic evolution. The core of the project is a 340-km-long seismic profile at 12°E between Munich and Venice. This paper deals with the P-wave velocity distribution as derived from active source travel time tomography. Our database consists of Vibroseis and explosion seismic travel times recorded at up to 100 seismological stations distributed in a 30-km-wide corridor along the profile. In order to derive a velocity and reflector model, we simultaneously inverted refractions and reflections using a derivative of a damped least squares approach for local earthquake tomography. 8000 travel time picks from dense Vibroseis recordings provide the basis for high resolution in the upper crust. Explosion seismic wide-angle reflection travel times constrain both deeper crustal velocities and structure of the crust–mantle boundary with low resolution. In the resulting model, the Adriatic crust shows significantly higher P-wave velocities than the European crust. The European Moho is dipping south at an angle of 7°. The Adriatic Moho dips north with a gentle inclination at shallower depths. This geometry suggests S-directed subduction. Azimuthal variations of the first-break velocities as well as observations of shear wave splitting reveal strong anisotropy in the Tauern Window. We explain this finding by foliations and laminations generated by lateral extrusion. Based on the P-wave model we also localized almost 100 local earthquakes recorded during the 2-month acquisition campaign in 1999. Seismicity patterns in the North seem related to the Inn valley shear zone, and to thrusting of Austroalpine units over European basement. The alignment of deep seismicity in the Trento-Vicenza region with the top of the Adriatic lower crust corroborates the suggestion of a deep thrust fault in the Southern Alps.     

Seismic potential of Southern Italy

To improve estimates of the long-term average seismic potential of the slowly straining South Central Mediterranean plate boundary zone, we integrate constraints on tectonic style and deformation rates from geodetic and geologic data with the traditional constraints from seismicity catalogs. We express seismic potential (long-term average earthquake recurrence rates as a function of magnitude) in the form of truncated Gutenberg–Richter distributions for seven seismotectonic source zones. Seismic coupling seems to be large or even complete in most zones. An exception is the southern Tyrrhenian thrust zone, where most of the African–European convergence is accommodated. Here aseismic deformation is estimated to range from at least 25% along the western part to almost 100% aseismic slip around the Aeolian Islands. Even so, seismic potential of this zone has previously been significantly underestimated, due to the low levels of recorded past seismicity. By contrast, the series of 19 M6–7 earthquakes that hit Calabria in the 18th and 19th century released tectonic strain rates accumulated over time spans up to several times the catalog duration, and seismic potential is revised downward. The southern Tyrrhenian thrust zone and the extensional Calabrian faults, as well as the northeastern Sicilian transtensional zone between them (which includes the Messina Straits, where a destructive M7 event occurred in 1908), all have a similar seismic potential with minimum recurrence times of M ≥ 6.5 of 150–220 years. This potential is lower than that of the Southern Apennines (M ≥ 6.5 recurring every 60 to 140 years), but higher than that of southeastern Sicily (minimum M ≥ 6.5 recurrence times of 400 years). The high seismicity levels recorded in southeastern Sicily indicate some clustering and are most compatible with a tectonic scenario where the Ionian deforms internally, and motions at the Calabrian Trench are small. The estimated seismic potential for the Calabrian Trench and Central and Western Sicily are the lowest (minimum M ≥ 6.5 recurrence times of 550–800 years). Most zones are probably capable of generating earthquakes up to magnitudes 7–7.5, with the exception of Central and Western Sicily where maximum events sizes most likely do not exceed 7.     

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

Physical properties of ultrahigh-pressure metamorphic rocks from the Sulu terrain, eastern central China: implications for the seismic structure at the Donghai (CCSD) drilling site

About 30 samples representing major lithologies of Sulu ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) metamorphic rocks were collected from surface exposures and exploration wells, and compressional (Vp) and shear wave (Vs) velocities and their directional dependence (anisotropy) were determined over a range of constant confining pressures up to 600 MPa and temperatures ranging from 20 to 600 °C. Samples range in composition from acidic to ultramafic. P- and S-wave velocities measured at 600 MPa vary from 5.08 to 8.64 km/s and 2.34 to 4.93 km/s, respectively. Densities are in the range from 2.60 to 3.68 g/cm³. To make a direct tie between seismic measurements (refraction and reflection) and subsurface lithologies, the experimental velocity data (corresponding to shallow depths) were used to calculate velocity profiles for the different lithologies and profiles of reflection coefficients at possible lithologic interfaces across the projected 5000-m Chinese Continental Scientific Drilling Program (CCSD) crustal segment. Comparison of calculated in situ velocities with respective intrinsic velocities suggests that the in situ velocities at shallow depths are lowered by an increased abundance of open microcracks. The strongly reflective zone beneath the Donghai drill site can be explained by the impedance contrasts between the different lithologies. Contacts between eclogite/peridotite and felsic rocks (gt-gneiss, granitic gneiss), in particular, may give rise to strong seismic reflections. In addition, shear-induced (lattice preferred orientation (LPO)-related) seismic anisotropy can increase reflectivity. For the explanation of the high velocity bodies (>6.4 km/s) around 1000 m and below 3200-m depth, large proportions of eclogite/peridotite (about 40 and 30 vol.%, respectively) are needed.     

Post-mid-Cretaceous eastern North Sea evolution inferred from 3D thermo-mechanical modelling

The Late Cretaceous–Cenozoic evolution of the eastern North Sea region is investigated by 3D thermo-mechanical modelling. The model quantifies the integrated effects on basin evolution of large-scale lithospheric processes, rheology, strength heterogeneities, tectonics, eustasy, sedimentation and erosion.

The evolution of the area is influenced by a number of factors: (1) thermal subsidence centred in the central North Sea providing accommodation space for thick sediment deposits; (2) 250-m eustatic fall from the Late Cretaceous to present, which causes exhumation of the North Sea Basin margins; (3) varying sediment supply; (4) isostatic adjustments following erosion and sedimentation; (5) Late Cretaceous–early Cenozoic Alpine compressional phases causing tectonic inversion of the Sorgenfrei–Tornquist Zone (STZ) and other weak zones.

The stress field and the lateral variations in lithospheric strength control lithospheric deformation under compression. The lithosphere is relatively weak in areas where Moho is deep and the upper mantle warm and weak. In these areas the lithosphere is thickened during compression producing surface uplift and erosion (e.g., at the Ringkøbing–Fyn High and in the southern part of Sweden). Observed late Cretaceous–early Cenozoic shallow water depths at the Ringkøbing–Fyn High as well as Cenozoic surface uplift in southern Sweden (the South Swedish Dome (SSD)) are explained by this mechanism.

The STZ is a prominent crustal structural weakness zone. Under compression, this zone is inverted and its surface uplifted and eroded. Contemporaneously, marginal depositional troughs develop. Post-compressional relaxation causes a regional uplift of this zone.

The model predicts sediment distributions and paleo-water depths in accordance with observations. Sediment truncation and exhumation at the North Sea Basin margins are explained by fall in global sea level, isostatic adjustments to exhumation, and uplift of the inverted STZ. This underlines the importance of the mechanisms dealt with in this paper for the evolution of intra-cratonic sedimentary basins.     

山西夏县台热水井水氡异常特征与地震的关系初探

为弄清山西夏县中心地震台水氡震前异常的原因 ,对山西夏县中心地震台热水井水氡 1984年以来的观测资料用概率论的数据处理方法进行了处理 ,以负异常的发震原理进行了分析 ,结果表明震前负异常的发震概率为 70 %。