The second order characteristic condition for plastic flow

In this paper the second order characteristic (discontinuous bifurcation) condition is derived for the granular flow (fully plastic) equations. This second order bifurcation equation is shown to be formally identical to the first order localization requirement during steady elastoplastic deformation provided the elastic compliance tensor is substituted for the product of the plastic multiplier with the flow Hessian. For isotropic yield and flow functions the invariant form of the characteristic condition is given in detail, as well as an alternative expression in adapted co‐ordinates. The characteristic condition can be regarded as defining a hardening function which is maximized to identify the critical angles. When the method is applied to 3D Coulomb flow, Mohr's 3D fracture plane conditions are obtained uniquely. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

江苏岸外辐射沙脊群东沙稳定性研究

东沙是江苏岸外辐射沙脊群中的第二大沙洲,具有独特的地形地貌和水动力条件,对它进行稳定性研究为揭示整个辐射沙洲及其邻近岸滩的动态演变都非常有益。通过利用多年遥感卫片资料、1998年取得的现场水文泥沙观测资料和东沙滩面表层沉积物资料等,对东沙的地形地貌特征、沉积特征和东沙两侧潮汐通道的水流泥沙特征等进行了详细分析。研究结果表明,东沙的沙脊偏于西侧,西侧滩面较窄、高程较高且岸线较为顺直,东侧滩面较宽、高程较低且岸线较为破碎;西洋和陈家坞槽均处于冲刷状态,净输沙的主要方向为输向槽外或输向条子泥;东沙近三十年来面积有所缩小且有外围向中央收缩的趋势,尤其以向东、向南方向的迁移最为明显。     

云南东川因民铜矿金矿化特征及成因初探

因民铜矿发育两种金矿化类型:一是铜矿的伴生金;二是热液构造蚀变岩型。化探样品分析结果显示,金矿化主要赋存于金箔箐断层上、下盘的角砾状蚀变岩内,空间上受岩性和断裂构造的双重控制。邻区拖布卡金矿的成矿地质背景与本区相似,在成矿地质年代上作以类比推测,认为喜马拉雅期是主成矿期。另外通过对光片镜下和化探原生晕样聚类分析研究,发现构造蚀变岩型金矿化具明显的多期多阶段性及热液特征。     

地震综合效应场函数及其在地震预报中的应用──（一）地震综合效应场函数及其计算方法

在系统地分析了目前各种测震学地震预报方法科学思路的基础上,认为测震学地震预报方法基本上可以分为两大类。一类是以已经发生的一些地震作为未来可能发生的地震的“因”,即由于已经发生的地震对区域应力场的影响,导致未来发生较强地震。这一类包括的预报方法较多,如空区、条带、ｂ值、地震迁移、相关地震等等及其由此衍生出来的各种方法。另一类是把已经发生的一些地震作为区域应力场增强的“果”,即已经发生的地震是区域应力场增强过程中的一种反映,而未来地震不一定是已经发生的地震所导致的结果。这一类包括“地震窗口”、小震群活动等方法。针对第一类方法,各种预报方法都是力图从地震三要素中提取未来地震的信息,而具体作法又都是利用地震三要素这个多维空间的某个剖面。为了从地震活动诸要素的多维空间提取综合信息,我们对每个地震加入了破裂面方位,构成了地震第四要素,并依据地震４要素建立了地震综合效应场函数。地震综合效应场函数概括了多种测震学地震预报方法的科学思路和预报经验,从而可以形成测震学的综合预报方法。     

Crustal structure of the Eastern Alps along the TRANSALP profile from wide-angle seismic tomography

The objective of the TRANSALP project is an investigation of the Eastern Alps with regard to their deep structure and dynamic evolution. The core of the project is a 340-km-long seismic profile at 12°E between Munich and Venice. This paper deals with the P-wave velocity distribution as derived from active source travel time tomography. Our database consists of Vibroseis and explosion seismic travel times recorded at up to 100 seismological stations distributed in a 30-km-wide corridor along the profile. In order to derive a velocity and reflector model, we simultaneously inverted refractions and reflections using a derivative of a damped least squares approach for local earthquake tomography. 8000 travel time picks from dense Vibroseis recordings provide the basis for high resolution in the upper crust. Explosion seismic wide-angle reflection travel times constrain both deeper crustal velocities and structure of the crust–mantle boundary with low resolution. In the resulting model, the Adriatic crust shows significantly higher P-wave velocities than the European crust. The European Moho is dipping south at an angle of 7°. The Adriatic Moho dips north with a gentle inclination at shallower depths. This geometry suggests S-directed subduction. Azimuthal variations of the first-break velocities as well as observations of shear wave splitting reveal strong anisotropy in the Tauern Window. We explain this finding by foliations and laminations generated by lateral extrusion. Based on the P-wave model we also localized almost 100 local earthquakes recorded during the 2-month acquisition campaign in 1999. Seismicity patterns in the North seem related to the Inn valley shear zone, and to thrusting of Austroalpine units over European basement. The alignment of deep seismicity in the Trento-Vicenza region with the top of the Adriatic lower crust corroborates the suggestion of a deep thrust fault in the Southern Alps.     

Seismic potential of Southern Italy

To improve estimates of the long-term average seismic potential of the slowly straining South Central Mediterranean plate boundary zone, we integrate constraints on tectonic style and deformation rates from geodetic and geologic data with the traditional constraints from seismicity catalogs. We express seismic potential (long-term average earthquake recurrence rates as a function of magnitude) in the form of truncated Gutenberg–Richter distributions for seven seismotectonic source zones. Seismic coupling seems to be large or even complete in most zones. An exception is the southern Tyrrhenian thrust zone, where most of the African–European convergence is accommodated. Here aseismic deformation is estimated to range from at least 25% along the western part to almost 100% aseismic slip around the Aeolian Islands. Even so, seismic potential of this zone has previously been significantly underestimated, due to the low levels of recorded past seismicity. By contrast, the series of 19 M6–7 earthquakes that hit Calabria in the 18th and 19th century released tectonic strain rates accumulated over time spans up to several times the catalog duration, and seismic potential is revised downward. The southern Tyrrhenian thrust zone and the extensional Calabrian faults, as well as the northeastern Sicilian transtensional zone between them (which includes the Messina Straits, where a destructive M7 event occurred in 1908), all have a similar seismic potential with minimum recurrence times of M ≥ 6.5 of 150–220 years. This potential is lower than that of the Southern Apennines (M ≥ 6.5 recurring every 60 to 140 years), but higher than that of southeastern Sicily (minimum M ≥ 6.5 recurrence times of 400 years). The high seismicity levels recorded in southeastern Sicily indicate some clustering and are most compatible with a tectonic scenario where the Ionian deforms internally, and motions at the Calabrian Trench are small. The estimated seismic potential for the Calabrian Trench and Central and Western Sicily are the lowest (minimum M ≥ 6.5 recurrence times of 550–800 years). Most zones are probably capable of generating earthquakes up to magnitudes 7–7.5, with the exception of Central and Western Sicily where maximum events sizes most likely do not exceed 7.     

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

地震快报系统

本文简述了开发地震快报系统的主要技术。     

Physical properties of ultrahigh-pressure metamorphic rocks from the Sulu terrain, eastern central China: implications for the seismic structure at the Donghai (CCSD) drilling site

About 30 samples representing major lithologies of Sulu ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) metamorphic rocks were collected from surface exposures and exploration wells, and compressional (Vp) and shear wave (Vs) velocities and their directional dependence (anisotropy) were determined over a range of constant confining pressures up to 600 MPa and temperatures ranging from 20 to 600 °C. Samples range in composition from acidic to ultramafic. P- and S-wave velocities measured at 600 MPa vary from 5.08 to 8.64 km/s and 2.34 to 4.93 km/s, respectively. Densities are in the range from 2.60 to 3.68 g/cm³. To make a direct tie between seismic measurements (refraction and reflection) and subsurface lithologies, the experimental velocity data (corresponding to shallow depths) were used to calculate velocity profiles for the different lithologies and profiles of reflection coefficients at possible lithologic interfaces across the projected 5000-m Chinese Continental Scientific Drilling Program (CCSD) crustal segment. Comparison of calculated in situ velocities with respective intrinsic velocities suggests that the in situ velocities at shallow depths are lowered by an increased abundance of open microcracks. The strongly reflective zone beneath the Donghai drill site can be explained by the impedance contrasts between the different lithologies. Contacts between eclogite/peridotite and felsic rocks (gt-gneiss, granitic gneiss), in particular, may give rise to strong seismic reflections. In addition, shear-induced (lattice preferred orientation (LPO)-related) seismic anisotropy can increase reflectivity. For the explanation of the high velocity bodies (>6.4 km/s) around 1000 m and below 3200-m depth, large proportions of eclogite/peridotite (about 40 and 30 vol.%, respectively) are needed.     

山西夏县台热水井水氡异常特征与地震的关系初探

为弄清山西夏县中心地震台水氡震前异常的原因 ,对山西夏县中心地震台热水井水氡 1984年以来的观测资料用概率论的数据处理方法进行了处理 ,以负异常的发震原理进行了分析 ,结果表明震前负异常的发震概率为 70 %。