The use of modern statistical theories in the assessment of earthquake hazard, with application to quiet regions of eastern North America

It is generally accepted that both deterministic and statistical approaches are useful for the characterization of earthquake hazard. Although the most reliable estimates of seismic hazard can only be based on an improved understanding of the earthquake mechanism, efficient utilization of the appropriate methods provided by recent statistical theories is also important in seismic risk analysis. This is especially true in regions where the connection between seismicity and geologic structure is tenuous at best. We are particularly interested in developing better statistical treatments of data for regions with little known seismic activity. To this end, we have applied three statistical methods to the historical record of seismicity in relatively quiet regions of eastern North America. These are: (1) the threshold method for tail inference, a new theory for modeling earthquakes with sizes above a given threshold, (2) the ‘bootstrap’ technique in which the characteristics of an unknown population are simulated by replacing the true population by an estimated one, and (3) a technique to estimate the number of earthquakes below a given size, in order to compensate for the under-reporting of small earthquakes in most catalogs. A combination of these techniques has been used to estimate the probabilities of future large earthquakes for the regions studied. Because of limitations imposed by existing catalogs, the size estimate used has been maximum intensity.     

青海地区地震活动起伏特征之探讨

从地震活动的时间、空间分布探讨青海地区地震活动的起伏特征,认为目前该地区处于地震活动的相对平静时段,未来１～２年以中强地震活动为主。另外从区域垂直形变场、区域应力场的转变,以及青海东部地区地下水趋势性下降等资料进一步论证了这种地震活动起伏现象     

南海东北部磁静区深部构造及成因模式

2001年7-8月,国家重点基础研究发展规划项目（973）的二级课题《中国边缘海前新生代基底特征及其构造格局》与两岸合作课题《南海东北部与台湾间的构造及地球物理研究》合作在南海东北部地区开展了重、磁、震资料的海上采集航次,获取了大量珍贵数据,其中973NH-01与MLTW测线垂直穿越了南海东北部传统意义上的磁静区。以这两条测线的重磁资料为主,结合地震解释剖面,对磁静区的重磁异常特征、重磁基底及深部构造进行了深入的分析和研究,并结合前人工作对磁静区的成因模式提出了新的解释,认为磁静区位于南海北部被动大陆边缘的洋陆交界带（COB）,独特的动力构造背景导致其下伏的地幔高热物质上涌并沿构造薄弱带侵入成岩墙,进而造成区域居里面抬升,磁性层减薄,磁异常减弱而形成磁静区。     

云南地区强震前中小地震活跃—平静的定量计算

以累计频度定量计算方法 ,讨论了云南地区 1970年以来 ,各个强震孕震区的地震活动非线性度ZL值的时间进程曲线 ,系统计算了Ms≥ 6 3级强震前的ZL值曲线 ,结果表明 :强震前地震活动非线性度ZL值异常表现出的地震孕震区的地震平静—活跃或活跃—平静过程至少出现一次 ,且震例中的 83 %开始出现平静(活跃 )的时间为强震前 1～ 2 12 年 ,强震前半年左右结束出现活跃 (平静 )。     

中国西部及邻区强震迁移规律与喜马拉雅弧关系研究

在数值模拟的基础上,系统分析研究了中国西部及邻区强震活动的迁移规律,结果表明,印度板块与欧亚板块的碰撞作用控制着中国西部强震活动。 喜马拉雅东部弧顶（缅甸弧顶） 、西部弧顶（兴都库什弧顶） 及喜马拉雅弧中段的强震活动与内陆的强震活动存在密切的联系,与内陆强震活跃期、平静期的存在及强震迁移规律都有重要关系。     

AlphaGUARD与FD-125测氡仪的对比观测研究

本文用AlphaGUARD测氡仪进行真空状态下静置时间与氡浓度关系的实验,以总结AlphaGUARD测氡仪测试氡值的最佳稳定时间段及氡值变化是否符合氡衰变规律;通过对平行样品的观测,分析了AlphaGUARD测氡仪与FD-125测氡仪的一致性问题。结果表明,在静置时间70min以内,氡值变化比较稳定,70min之后氡观测值逐渐降低,基本符合氡放射性衰变规律:AlphaGUARD测氡仪与FD-125测氡仪结果具有一定偏差,平均相对偏差小于约10%。据推测可能是两个仪器的系统测试误差造成的,另外FD-125测氡仪自身存在校准氡源活度与样品浓度差距过大而导致测试结果偏离等缺点。以上实验结果为AlphaGUARD测氡仪在地震系统的推广应用积累了经验。     

乌鲁木齐地区地磁静日场Sq的变化特征

根据乌鲁木齐地磁台所编的1989年《地磁观测报告》,采用地磁静日场的水平分量(H)和垂直分量(Z)资料,选用其特征量——日变幅和相位,对乌鲁木齐地区地磁静日场S_q的变化特征进行初步统计分析表明,该工作对于进一步认识和研究乌鲁木齐地区地磁静日场的变化规律,为利用地磁预报地震提供背景值资料具有一定意义。     

Geomagnetic quiet day selection

Based on published literature and the response to a questionnaire sent to geomagnetic field, ionospheric and magnetospheric researchers, several methods of choosing periods of quiet conditions based on geomagnetic records, as well as other observed parameters, have been identified. Caveats with respect to using geomagnetic indices to select quiet periods include the following:

中国东部雨季降水事件的静默时间特征及内在动力学机制初探

为了挖掘降水的内在非线性动力学机制,基于1960—2017年4—9月的中国日降水数据,利用百分位阈值法确定不同强度的降水事件,定义相邻同强度降水事件之间的间隔时间为“静默时间”,描述同阈值降水事件再次发生的历时长短。“平均静默时间”可以表征不同强度降水事件的群发性特征,即某一时段内,平均静默时间越短（长）,同类型降水事件再次发生的历时越短（长）,其群发性程度越强（弱）。分析不同强度降水事件的平均静默时间在中国东部地区的空间分布和时间演变特征表明: 1960—2017年,一般强度降水事件在长江中游地区较其余地区群发性强,而东北南部地区则较弱; 极端降水事件在中国东部北方地区群发性较强,而在南方地区则偏弱。就气候态演化过程而言,一般强度降水事件的群发性在长江以南地区有所增强,在东北南部地区则呈减弱趋势;极端降水事件的群发性特征在中国东部北方地区不断减弱,但在南方地区持续增强。各站点降水事件静默时间的概率密度函数均呈幂律分布,且时、空上呈无标度特征,表明日降水系统为现实世界中的自组织临界系统,为时间序列分析角度理解降水事件内在非线性动力学机制提供了新的视角。      

Magnetic studies in the northern Bay of Bengal

Total magnetic intensity and bathymetric surveys were carried out in the northern Bay of Bengal between 6° to 11° 45 N latitudes and east of 84° to 93° 30 E longitudes. The hitherto known 85° E Ridge is characterised as a subsurface feature by a large amplitude, positive magnetic anomaly surrounded by Mesozoic crust. A newly identified NE to NNESSW trending magnetic anomaly between 7° N, 87° 30 E and 10° 30 N, 89–90° E may be one of the unidentified Mesozoic lineations in the northern Bay of Bengal. The Ninetyeast Ridge is not associated with any recognizable magnetic anomaly. The Sunda Trough to the east of the Ninetyeast Ridge is characterised by a positive magnetic anomaly. A combined interpretation, using Werner deconvolution and analytical signal methods, yields basement depths ~ 10 km below sea level. These depths are in agreement with the seismic results of Curray (1991).Deceased 24 December 1991