Natural recovery from accelerated forest ditch and stream bank erosion five years after harvesting of plantation forest on Plynlimon,mid‐Wales

Erosion rates surveyed using 230 erosion pins on 24 occasions over eight years (1994–2001) on forested stream banks, tributaries and forest ditches in the 0·89 km² Nant Tanllwyth catchment, part of the Hafren Forest on Plynlimon, mid‐Wales, showed statistically significant increases of up to 40 mm a^?1 in mean erosion rates during the two‐year period in which environmentally sensitive plot‐scale timber harvesting operations took place (1996–97). In the four years following timber harvesting mean erosion rates at all sites recovered to levels that were lower than before the harvesting operations began. This is attributed to increased light levels, following canopy removal, allowing vegetation to colonize exposed banks. There was a statistically significant relationship (p < 0·05) between mean erosion rate in 2000–01 (four years after harvesting) and percentage vegetation cover at erosion monitoring sites in the clearfelled (south tributaries) area though the same relationship did not hold for sites on the mainstream banks or for sites on the north (mature forest) ditch sites. The implications of natural vegetation colonization for management of such streams are discussed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling the chloride signal at Plynlimon,Wales, using a modified dynamic TOPMODEL incorporating conservative chemical mixing (with uncertainty)

The application of a modified version of dynamic TOPMODEL for two subcatchments at Plynlimon, Wales is described. Conservative chemical mixing within mobile and immobile stores has been added to the hydrological model in an attempt to simulate observed stream chloride concentrations. The model was not fully able to simulate the observed behaviour, in particular the short‐ to medium‐term dynamics. One of the primary problems highlighted by the study was the representation of dry deposition and cloud‐droplet‐deposited chloride, which formed a significant part of the long‐term chloride mass budget. Equifinality of parameter sets inhibited the ability to determine the effective catchment mixing volumes and coefficients or the most likely partition between occult mass inputs and chloride mass inputs determined by catchment immobile‐store antecedent conditions. Some success was achieved, in as much as some aspects of the dynamic behaviour of the signal were satisfactorily simulated, although spectral analysis showed that the model could not fully reproduce the 1/f power spectra of observed stream chloride concentrations with its implications of a wide distribution of residence times for water in the catchment. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial delineation of groundwater–surface water interactions through intensive in‐stream profiling

The dominance of ‘old’ pre‐event water in headwater storm runoff has been recorded in numerous upland catchment studies; however, the mechanisms by which this pre‐event water enters the stream channel are poorly understood. Understanding these processes is fundamental to determining the controls on surface water quality and associated impacts on stream ecology. Previous studies in the upland forested catchment of the Afon Hafren (River Severn) at Plynlimon, mid‐Wales, identified an active bedrock groundwater system that was discharging into the stream channel during storm response. Detailed analysis showed that these discharges were small and could not account for the majority of pre‐event storm water response identified at this site; pre‐event storm runoff had to be sourced predominantly from further upstream. An intensive stream survey was used to determine the spatial nature of groundwater–surface water (GW–SW) interactions in the Hafren Catchment. Detailed physico‐chemical in‐stream profiling identified a marked change in water quality indicating a significant discrete point of bedrock groundwater discharge upstream of the Hafren Transect study site. The in‐stream profiling showed the importance of high spatial resolution sampling as a key to understanding processes of GW–SW interaction and how quick and cost‐effective measurements of specific electrical conductance of stream waters could be used to highlight in‐stream heterogeneity. This approach is recommended for use in headwater catchments for initial characterisation of the stream channel in order to better locate instrumentation and to determine more effective targeted sampling protocols in upland catchment research. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water quality trends at an upland site in wales,UK, 1983–1993

Ten years of detailed upland stream and bulk deposition water quality data from Plynlimon, mid-Wales, are examined for trend. A robust statistical test (the seasonal Kendall test) is applied and data are presented graphically. Smoothing techniques are used to highlight the patterns of change which underlie high data scatter. The graphs show long-term cycles within the data which violate the assumptions of common statistical tests for trend. These cycles relate to fluctuations in the weather patterns at Plynlimon. Even though the seasonal Kendall test is significant for some determinands, the evidence from the graphs suggests that many of these ‘trends’ are unlikely to continue. For solutes in rainfall, there is no convincing long-term trend. There is a possible increase in ammonium concentrations, which may indicate an increasing atmospheric source generated by farming activities, but this will require a longer data series for confirmation. Several trace metal concentrations increased significantly part way through the study period, but later returned to the original levels. The bulk precipitation sea salt input has been uneven over the 10-year sampling period, with the highest inputs occurring during the wetter winters. For solutes in streamwaters, there are clear trends in dissolved organic carbon (DOC), iodine and bromide, which increase over time and may be attributed to an increase in organic decomposition in the catchment. Previous studies in Wales have shown similar behaviour for colour, which is related to DOC, but the corresponding changes for bromide and iodine are new. For most other streamwater determinands, any changes are masked by the effects of year to year variations in the quality and quantity of rainfall. For example, zinc and chromium variations parallel the corresponding rainfall quantity variations. The effect of rainfall quality variation is marked for marine-derived elements such as chloride. For sulphate, streamwater variations are inverted relative to chloride. This suggests that dry deposition may vary with weather conditions: high when the wind direction is from the land and low when weather systems are predominantly frontal and laden with sea salts. Alternatively, high sea salt rainfall may be affecting absorption/solubility reactions in the soils. There are four main conclusions. Firstly, there is no indication of changing acid deposition inputs or changing acidity within the runoff, despite a decline in UK sulphur dioxide emissions. Secondly, streamwater DOC has shown an increase over time, but there is no clear corresponding decrease in pH as might be expected from acidification theory. Thirdly, there are cyclical variations in bulk precipitation inputs and in streamwater quality, which mean that trends cannot be established even with 10 years of data. Long-term cycles are likely to exist in other environmental data and extreme care is required for the interpretation of trend, especially if data sets are short. This aspect strongly supports the continuation of long-term monitoring programmes over several decades. Finally, the graphical application strongly enhances data analysis and should be considered an essential component of trend investigation.     

Spatial and temporal predictions of soil moisture dynamics,runoff, variable source areas and evapotranspiration for plynlimon,mid-wales

For many years hydrologists have tried to build physically realistic models which are still simple enough to be fitted to a range of observations made in the field. This is an ongoing process which will become even more difficult as the quality and variety of field and remotely sensed data improves. Hence models must be able to predict soil moisture patterns in time and in space as well as the outflow hydrograph. The model presented here (TOPMODEL) aims to predict the nature of variable source areas in a way that reflects their dynamics over space and time. All component processes are described and shown in operation. As TOPMODEL and similar models have a growing popularity, this paper can be seen as a demonstration of the model's predictive capabilities. The model is applied to the catchments of Plynlimon, mid-Wales for 1984, 1985 and 1986 data sets. The model has been thoroughly tested and cross-validated against independent data sets for different time periods, for a separate catchment, for internal gauges and for wet and dry periods. The resulting predicted soil moisture patterns show a small, semi-permanent variable source area that has the ability during large storms to expand dynamically over short time periods. Spatial predictions of evapotranspiration are also shown which reflect the influence of soil moisture patterns on this process. The weakest component of the model is the representation of root zone evaporation and how this pre-sets the antecedent condition of the catchment during long dry periods.     

GLUE: 20 years on

This paper reviews the use of the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology in the 20 years since the paper by Beven and Binley in Hydrological Processes in (1992), which is now one of the most highly cited papers in hydrology. The original conception, the on‐going controversy it has generated, the nature of different sources of uncertainty and the meaning of the GLUE prediction uncertainty bounds are discussed. The hydrological, rather than statistical, arguments about the nature of model and data errors and uncertainties that are the basis for GLUE are emphasized. The application of the Institute of Hydrology distributed model to the Gwy catchment at Plynlimon presented in the original paper is revisited, using a larger sample of models, a wider range of likelihood evaluations and new visualization techniques. It is concluded that there are good reasons to reject this model for that data set. This is a positive result in a research environment in that it requires improved models or data to be made available. In practice, there may be ethical issues of using outputs from models for which there is evidence for model rejection in decision making. Finally, some suggestions for what is needed in the next 20 years are provided. © 2013 The Authors. Hydrological Processes published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Some effects of sampling design on water quality estimation in streams / Quelques effets de la stratégie d’échantillonnage sur l’estimation de la qualité de l’eau des rivières

Abstract

Abstract Stream sampling programmes for water quality estimation constitute a statistical survey of a correlated population. The properties of parameter and other estimates made from sample values from such programmes are set in the context of statistical sampling theory. It is shown that a model-based rather than a design-based approach to statistical analysis is usually appropriate. The influence of model structure and sampling design on the robustness and suitability of estimation procedures is investigated, and relationships with kriging are demonstrated. Methodology is discussed with reference to data from a UK sampling programme     

ISOTOPE STUDIES OF PIPEFLOW AT PLYNLIMON,WALES, UK

Residence times and flow paths of pipe and stream flow were studied during low flow in the Nant Gerig and Gwy experimental catchments at Plynlimon in mid-Wales, UK, using a two-month time series of natural deuterium and electrical conductivity data from perennial and ephemeral pipe flow, stream flow, groundwater and rainfall. Low flow in both the perennial pipe and the stream was maintained by ‘old’ groundwater discharge. This groundwater was at least 40 days old. Flow in the ephemeral pipe was dominated by old groundwater and was only slightly affected by direct inputs of new water. Although direct rainfall inputs contributed minimally to runoff in the perennial pipe and the stream, rainfall influenced the isotopic and chemical character of the groundwater. Rainfall also affected the water-table elevation, which determined the flashiness of the perennial pipe flow and whether the ephemeral pipe flowed. The isotope and electrical conductivity data suggest that storm runoff in both the main pipe and the stream is overwhelmingly old water. A sensitivity analysis suggests that the old water is supplied both from near-stream groundwater and upslope groundwater delivered by the ephemeral pipes.     

Identifying step changes in single streamflow and evaporation records due to forest cover change

Techniques that identify forestry‐induced changes to streamflow or evaporation are needed to assess available water resources. Equally, there is a growing appreciation that climate cycles may be having a profound impact on the land‐surface hydrology. The ability to see forestry‐induced change above the effects of climate dynamics, therefore, becomes a critical issue. Paired‐catchment analyses have proved very valuable in identifying change, but cannot quantify the relative impacts of climate and land‐cover change, and data from adjacent reference basins are not always available. Within this study, we examined whether step changes within single time‐series of streamflow or evaporation (P‐Q) could be identified without reference to those of a control catchment. The UC‐DHR method was used for this analysis, and included a special routine to allow a known change‐point (e.g. start of logging) to be specified or alternatively identified by the model. Data from three experimental catchments important for their seminal forestry impact studies were selected for the analyses. The study demonstrated that clear‐cutting 29% of the Hore catchment and 40% selective felling of the Berembun basin produced a step change in the discharge trend that was clearly observable above the climate‐related dynamics and uncertainty. In contrast, step changes in P‐Q following the same selective felling event or following 22% afforestation of the Upper Hodder basin were not larger than the uncertainty bands or magnitude of the inter‐annual cycles produced by the climate dynamics, respectively. This demonstrates that while step changes can be observed in single hydrological time‐series, errors within the observations can sometimes mask the identification of change. This masking of change is also possible where the longer‐term cyclical behaviour in Q or P‐Q from natural climate dynamics is large, while the spatial extent of forestry change is small. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.