重庆地面最高气温与最大风速年极值的渐近分布

利用重庆1951-1990年间地面最高气温和1956-1990年间地面最大风速年极值的记录,采用韦伯分布和耿贝尔分布分别对其渐近分布进行拟合.通过统计推断,找出重庆地面最高气温和地面最大风速年极值遵循的最佳渐近分布--韦伯分布.     

一种基于Ohta-Okamoto签名的门限群签名方案

在修改的Ohta_Okamoto数字签名方案基础上,设计出了一个新的(t,n)门限签名方案。该方案具有可验证性和防止内部成员合谋攻击;而且验证者在验证群签名的有效性计算的复杂性与一般个人签名方案一样。该方案的安全性是基于大整数的因式分解,因此在计算上是安全的。     

斜坡提砌石护面厚度的计算

介绍了斜坡式防波堤砌石护面中的插砌条石和干砌块石在波浪作用下的力学图式及作用机理 ,重点给出考虑摩擦力作用时的砌石块体稳定厚度的计算公式 ,并结合工程实例验证了公式的适用性     

Data assimilation for a coastal area morphodynamic model: Morecambe Bay

This paper investigates the use of data assimilation in coastal area morphodynamic modelling using Morecambe Bay as a study site. A simple model of the bay has been enhanced with a data assimilation scheme to better predict large-scale changes in bathymetry observed in the bay over a 3-year period. The 2DH decoupled morphodynamic model developed for the work is described, as is the optimal interpolation scheme used to assimilate waterline observations into the model run. Each waterline was acquired from a SAR satellite image and is essentially a contour of the bathymetry at some level within the inter-tidal zone of the bay. For model parameters calibrated against validation observations, model performance is good, even without data assimilation. However the use of data assimilation successfully compensates for a particular failing of the model, and helps to keep the model bathymetry on track. It also improves the ability of the model to predict future bathymetry. Although the benefits of data assimilation are demonstrated using waterline observations, any observations of morphology could potentially be used. These results suggest that data assimilation should be considered for use in future coastal area morphodynamic models.     

Parameter sensitivity of three Kalman filter schemes for assimilation of water levels in shelf sea models

In applications of data assimilation algorithms, a number of poorly known assimilation parameters usually need to be specified. Hence, the documented success of data assimilation methodologies must rely on a moderate sensitivity to these parameters. This contribution presents a parameter sensitivity study of three well known Kalman filter approaches for the assimilation of water levels in a three dimensional hydrodynamic modelling system. The filters considered are the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the reduced rank square root Kalman filter (RRSQRT) and the steady Kalman filter. A sensitivity analysis of key parameters in the schemes is undertaken for a setup in an idealised bay. The sensitivity of the resulting root mean square error (RMSE) is shown to be low to moderate. Hence the schemes are robust within an acceptable range and their application even with misspecified parameters is to be encouraged in this perspective. However, the predicted uncertainty of the assimilation results are sensitive to the parameters and hence must be applied with care. The sensitivity study further demonstrates the effectiveness of the steady Kalman filter in the given system as well as the great impact of assimilating even very few measurements.     

GVG采样线代表性检验

通过在实验区内设置不同类型的采样线,对GVG采样线的代表性进行检验.结果表明,高速公路和乡村道路类型的采样线对区域代表性的精度在95%以上;国道为86.726%;省道为65.447%.对于不同的缓冲区,高速公路、省道和乡村道路类型采样线,以200m缓冲区的代表性最好.而国道则以800m缓冲区的代表性最好.对于不同的作物而言,无论何种类型的采样线或者缓冲区,种植面积最大的棉花的精度是最好的.最低的是省道采样线1000m缓冲区,精度是78.146%,最好的是国道采样线800m缓冲区,精度是99.974%.除省道外,其他精度都在94.8%以上.这说明GVG采样线所获得的成数对于区域主要作物的代表性是很好的.     

WZY-1型钻参仪的研究与应用

分析了目前钻参仪未能普遍推广应用的原因。介绍了WZY－1型钻参仪的总体构成、测试参数、性能特点及其分别与钻机和水泵的一体化设计。     

Neuzeitlicher Schadstofftrend: Polycylische aromatische Kohlenwasserstoffe (PAK) in aquatischen und terrestrischen Sedimenten

A Recent Contamination Trend: Polycylic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Aquatic and Terrestrial Sediments Concentrations of polycylic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) measured in aquatic sediments of small, medium‐sized or very large inland lakes, of estuaries as well as in terrestrial sediments from Germany, the UK, Finland, and the USA were plotted in 10 trend curves over the period from 1800 to 1990. The segments of the bore cores were dated for their deposition age. For comparability of the results, the trend is preferentially shown by the guide parameter fluoranthene. Until the 19th century, a constant background value of C_Fluo = 10…50 μg/kg was observed in all regions. Then a steep increase in concentration followed, reaching in the aquatic sediments a maximum in the period 1940 to 1965, while the individual fluoranthene values ranged widely from 90 to 2400 μg/kg. In several regions, a more or less distinct decrease superseded this maximum, although this development did not appear in terrestrial sediments, in one estuary, and in remote forest lakes in Finland. The trend curves reflect the atmospheric deposition of PAHs in airborne dust and in some cases the import through runoff via rivers. Thus, the sediment profiles depict the development of air pollution by pyrogenic contaminants over more than a century. Sediment profiles from rivers can be used only with a high degree of reservation, because of the irregularity and low representativity of the sedimentation.     

汛期HLAFS产品在低纬高原地区预报能力客观检验

为充分使用我国暴雨模式（ＨＬＡＦＳ）数值预报产品，该文对１９９６年汛期ＨＬＡＦＳ在低纬高原地区预报能力进行客观检验和效果分析。其结果表明，ＨＬＡＦＳ对高度、气温等形势场有较好预报能力；物理量预报中的动力要素场（垂直运动）和水汽要素场（水汽通量散度）能较好反映云南强降水过程，有较好参考价值，热力要素场（θｓｅ３００－θｓｅ７００）预报效果较差，在实际应用中应注意订正。     

美国国家气象中心定量降雨预报

美国国家气象中心自１９６０年开始实施定量降雨预报及其检验方案直至１９９３年３３年间，定量降雨预报从广泛依靠预报员经验的人工方法转变到更多依靠对数值模式的解释和修正３的方法，这是预报技术的一大进步。