REVIEWS OF GEOGRAPHIC SOFTWARE

Reviews of geographic software in this article: DEMO-GRAPHICS: WORLD POPULATIONS AND PROJECTIONS. ESP GAUSS. CEMODEL S. Damus LIMDEP. William H. Greene MICROSTAT 4.1 OTIS PCIPS. (Personal Computer Image Processing System) . H.J. Meyers and R. Bernstein. REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES (RATS) SPSS/PC+ URBAN DATA MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE (UDMS)     

The use of inclined hemisphere projections for analyzing failure mechanisms in discontinuous rocks

This paper demonstrates the advantages of using inclined stereographic projections in kinematic analysis of rock blocks in discontinuous rock masses. Some examples of limiting cases are presented. The application of inclined projections is illustrated by its use in a mine slope in Brazil. It is clear from the discussion of these examples that inclined hemisphere projections provide better results than horizontal projections. It is also demonstrated that horizontal projections can lead to incorrect results in limiting cases.     

基于GIS的城市空间扩展预测

高速的城市扩展给社会发展带来了无比的活力。但是,也带来了一系列影响社会经济可持续发展的问题。因此,建立城市扩展预测模型对城市空间扩展预测有着实际的意义。本文主要是根据射线预测法的相关理论,使用Map Basic编程和Map Info软件进行相关操作,对济南市进行城市空间扩展预测并对预测进行分析,验证射线预测法的准确性。     

Climate change mitigation scenarios and policies and measures: the case of Kazakhstan

This article illustrates the main difficulties encountered in the preparation of GHG emission projections and climate change mitigation policies and measures (P&M) for Kazakhstan. Difficulties in representing the system with an economic model have been overcome by representing the energy system with a technical-economic growth model (MARKAL-TIMES) based on the stock of existing plants, transformation processes, and end-use devices. GHG emission scenarios depend mainly on the pace of transition in Kazakhstan from a planned economy to a market economy. Three scenarios are portrayed: an incomplete transition, a fast and successful one, and even more advanced participation in global climate change mitigation, including participation in some emission trading schemes. If the transition to a market economy is completed by 2020, P&M already adopted may reduce emissions of CO₂ from combustion by about 85 MtCO₂ by 2030 – 17% of the emissions in the baseline (WOM) scenario. One-third of these reductions are likely to be obtained from the demand sectors, and two-thirds from the supply sectors. If every tonne of CO₂ not emitted is valued up to US$10 in 2020 and $20 in 2030, additional P&M may further reduce emissions by 110 MtCO₂ by 2030.     

On Invisible Trade Relations between Mesopotamian Cities during the Third Millennium B.C.

The idea that the emergence of writing was necessity due to the increase in both the number of economic transactions and political complexity has been recently emphasized by Matthews, who also underlines that writing acted as a feedback in enabling and encouraging the growth of ever more complex modes of exchange. The intertwinement of trade and writing suggests that clay tablets left by the civilizations from the third millennium B.C. in Mesopotamia, where writing was invented, may be considered as traces of trade links and transactions between cities. We estimate a gravity model based on clay tablets, as if they represented trade flows. The parameters lead us to conclude that Mesopotamia formed a strongly integrated market.     

地形图数字化快速修测系统

本文论述了建立利用多种资料进行地形图数字化快速修测系统的基本原理及其基本功能。利用坐标变换和整体平差的方法，有效地解决了各种控制资料的坐标系不同和精度不一致的问题，确保了修测精度。     

Köppen Climate Types in Observed and Simulated Climates

The Köppen climate classification was applied to the observed gridded climatological sets and the outputs of four general circulation models (GCMs) over the continents of the Earth. All data had been acquired via the Data Distribution Centre established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The ability of the GCMs to simulate the Köppen climate zones identified in the real data was explored and possible future (global warming) changes in the climate types' distribution for each GCM were assessed. Differences in the area distributions derived from the GCMs' recent climate simulations give evidence about uncertainties generally involved in climate models. As to the global warming simulations, all GCM projections of warming climate (horizon 2050) show that the zones representing tropical rain climates and dry climates become larger, and the zones identified with boreal forest and snow climates together with the polar climates are smaller.     

Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios

At the current rate of global warming, the target of limiting it within 2 degrees by the end of the century seems more and more unrealistic. Policymakers, businesses and organizations leading international negotiations urge the scientific community to provide realistic and accurate assessments of the possible consequences of so called “high end” climate scenarios.This study illustrates a novel procedure to assess the future flood risk in Europe under high levels of warming. It combines ensemble projections of extreme streamflow for the current century based on EURO-CORDEX RCP 8.5 climate scenarios with recent advances in European flood hazard mapping. Further novelties include a threshold-based evaluation of extreme event magnitude and frequency, an alternative method to removing bias in climate projections, the latest pan-European exposure maps, and an improved flood vulnerability estimation.Estimates of population affected and direct flood damages indicate that by the end of the century the socio-economic impact of river floods in Europe is projected to increase by an average 220% due to climate change only. When coherent socio-economic development pathways are included in the assessment, central estimates of population annually affected by floods range between 500,000 and 640,000 in 2050, and between 540,000 and 950,000 in 2080, as compared to 216,000 in the current climate. A larger range is foreseen in the annual flood damage, currently of 5.3 B€, which is projected to rise at 20–40 B€ in 2050 and 30–100 B€ in 2080, depending on the future economic growth.     

客运专线轨检小车测量控制系统研究与开发

针对国内某轨检小车研发项目,采用模块化的程序设计集成开发环境Microsoft Visual Studio.NET,开发出了一套功能完善的高速铁路轨道检测控制系统。该系统以高速铁路精密定轨测量原理方法为基础,采用模块化的程序设计思路,实现了轨道检测数据的自动采集、自动记录、自动数据分析和平差处理、成果显示和自动检核等功能。工程应用实践表明,该检测系统运行稳定可靠,检测精度高,具有一定的实用性和推广价值。     

SOFTWARE REVIEWS

ATLAS*GIS , Version 1.0. ATLAS*MapMaker , Version 4.0. FIVFIV-SINSIN , Release 9.0. Geo-EAS , Version 1.2.1. Evan Englund Sim City , Version 1.0 Statistix , Version 3.1.