Characterization of cristobalite in ash and dome rock from the Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat： Implications for respiratory health hazards

A link between the inhalation of respirable silicas （SiO2） and respiratory diseases such as silicosis is widely recognized. Ash from dome collapse eruptions on Montserrat has been found to contain high levels （〉20%） of silicas in the form of cristobalite, tridymite, quartz and/or amorphous silica. The toxicity of these silica polymorphs varies widely. Cristobalite and quartz （tridymite less well established） are viewed as carcinogenic to humans whereas amorphous silica generally shows a reduced biological response. In assessing the potential health effects of volcanic ash particulates it is vital to determine the types and concentration of silicas as well as their size （respirable fraction）, shape and surface properties. The aim of this study is to develop methods to assess potentially toxic respirable airborne silicas in the dome collapse ash （applicable to a range of ash types） and to develop a model to predict the levels and types of respirable silicas from future eruptions. The model is being developed by comparing dome rock with related ash from a series of previous eruption events. Mineralogical assessment using conventional scanning X-ray diffraction （XRD） was hampered by difficulties in differentiating characteristic peaks for cristobalite and tridymite in complex multi-component ash samples （containing high levels of plagioclase）. These difficulties have been largely overcome using an Enraf-Nonius PDS120 diffractometer with curved （120 degrees 20） position sensitive detector （PSD）. The determination of size, shape and elemental characteristics of ash particulate and dome rock samples has been carried out using automated analytical scanning electron microscopy. The quantification of mineral proportions using PSD-XRD was highly successful with an accuracy of 1 to 2 wt%. However, the determination of phase proportions using automated analytical SEM was problematic due to scattering effects and the multiphase nature of many of the particles.     

Meteorological monitoring of an active volcano: Implications for eruption prediction

Rainfall data collected on and around the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat between 1998 and 2003 were analysed to assess the impact on primary volcanic activity, defined here as pyroclastic flows, dome collapses, and explosions. Fifteen such rainfall-triggered events were identified. If greater than 20 mm of rain fell on a particular day, the probability of a dome collapse occurring on that day increased by a factor of 6.3% to 9.2%, compared to a randomly chosen day. Similarly, the probability of observing pyroclastic flows and explosions on a day with > 20 mm of rainfall increased by factors of 2.6 and 5.4, respectively. These statistically significant links increased as the rainfall threshold was increased. Seventy percent of these rainfall-induced dome collapse episodes occurred on the same calendar day (most within a few hours) as the onset of intense rainfall, but an extra 3 occurred one or two calendar days later. The state of the volcano was important, with the rainfall–volcanic activity link being strongest during periods of unstable dome growth and weakest during periods of no dome growth or after a recent major collapse.Over 50% of the heavy rain days were associated with large-scale weather systems that can potentially be forecast up to a few days ahead. However, the remaining heavy rain days were associated with small-scale, essentially unpredictable weather systems. There was significant variability in the amount of rainfall recorded by different rain gauges, reflecting topographic variations around the volcano but also the inherent small-scale variability within an individual weather system. Hence, any monitoring/warning program is recommended to use a network, rather than just a single gauge. The seasonal cycle in rainfall was pronounced, with nearly all the heavy rain days occurring in the May–December wet season. Hence, the dome was at its most vulnerable at the beginning of the wet season after a period of uninterrupted growth. Interannual variability in rainfall was related to tropical Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies, and holds out the prospect of some limited skill in volcanic hazard forecasts at even longer lead times.     

Volcanic hazard communication using maps: an evaluation of their effectiveness

Hazard maps are considered essential tools in the communication of volcanic risk between scientists, the local authorities and the public. This study investigates the efficacy of such maps for the volcanic island of Montserrat in the West Indies using both quantitative and qualitative research techniques. Normal plan view maps, which have been used on the island over the last 10 years of the crisis, are evaluated against specially produced three-dimensional (3D) maps and perspective photographs. Thirty-two demographically representative respondents of mixed backgrounds, sex, education and location were interviewed and asked to complete a range of tasks and identification on the maps and photographs. The overall results show that ordinary people have problems interpreting their environment as a mapped representation. We found respondents’ ability to locate and orientate themselves as well as convey information relating to volcanic hazards was improved when using aerial photographs rather than traditional plan view contour maps. There was a slight improvement in the use of the 3D maps, especially in terms of topographic recognition. However, the most striking increase in effectiveness was found with the perspective photographs, which enabled people to identify features and their orientation much more readily. For Montserrat it appears that well labelled aerial and perspective photographs are the most effective geo-spatial method of communicating volcanic risks.

Directed blasts and blast-generated pyroclastic density currents: a comparison of the Bezymianny 1956, Mount St Helens 1980, and Soufrière Hills,Montserrat 1997 eruptions and deposits

We compare eruptive dynamics, effects and deposits of the Bezymianny 1956 (BZ), Mount St Helens 1980 (MSH), and Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat 1997 (SHV) eruptions, the key events of which included powerful directed blasts. Each blast subsequently generated a high-energy stratified pyroclastic density current (PDC) with a high speed at onset. The blasts were triggered by rapid unloading of an extruding or intruding shallow magma body (lava dome and/or cryptodome) of andesitic or dacitic composition. The unloading was caused by sector failures of the volcanic edifices, with respective volumes for BZ, MSH, and SHV c. 0.5, 2.5, and 0.05 km³. The blasts devastated approximately elliptical areas, axial directions of which coincided with the directions of sector failures. We separate the transient directed blast phenomenon into three main parts, the burst phase, the collapse phase, and the PDC phase. In the burst phase the pressurized mixture is driven by initial kinetic energy and expands rapidly into the atmosphere, with much of the expansion having an initially lateral component. The erupted material fails to mix with sufficient air to form a buoyant column, but in the collapse phase, falls beyond the source as an inclined fountain, and thereafter generates a PDC moving parallel to the ground surface. It is possible for the burst phase to comprise an overpressured jet, which requires injection of momentum from an orifice; however some exploding sources may have different geometry and a jet is not necessarily formed. A major unresolved question is whether the preponderance of strong damage observed in the volcanic blasts should be attributed to shock waves within an overpressured jet, or alternatively to dynamic pressures and shocks within the energetic collapse and PDC phases. Internal shock structures related to unsteady flow and compressibility effects can occur in each phase. We withhold judgment about published shock models as a primary explanation for the damage sustained at MSH until modern 3D numerical modeling is accomplished, but argue that much of the damage observed in directed blasts can be reasonably interpreted to have been caused by high dynamic pressures and clast impact loading by an inclined collapsing fountain and stratified PDC. This view is reinforced by recent modeling cited for SHV. In distal and peripheral regions, solids concentration, maximum particle size, current speed, and dynamic pressure are diminished, resulting in lesser damage and enhanced influence by local topography on the PDC. Despite the different scales of the blasts (devastated areas were respectively 500, 600, and >10 km² for BZ, MSH, and SHV), and some complexity involving retrogressive slide blocks and clusters of explosions, their pyroclastic deposits demonstrate strong similarity. Juvenile material composes >50% of the deposits, implying for the blasts a dominantly magmatic mechanism although hydrothermal explosions also occurred. The character of the magma fragmented by explosions (highly viscous, phenocryst-rich, variable microlite content) determined the bimodal distributions of juvenile clast density and vesicularity. Thickness of the deposits fluctuates in proximal areas but in general decreases with distance from the crater, and laterally from the axial region. The proximal stratigraphy of the blast deposits comprises four layers named A, B, C, D from bottom to top. Layer A is represented by very poorly sorted debris with admixtures of vegetation and soil, with a strongly erosive ground contact; its appearance varies at different sites due to different ground conditions at the time of the blasts. The layer reflects intense turbulent boundary shear between the basal part of the energetic head of the PDC and the substrate. Layer B exhibits relatively well-sorted fines-depleted debris with some charred plant fragments; its deposition occurred by rapid suspension sedimentation in rapidly waning, high-concentration conditions. Layer C is mainly a poorly sorted massive layer enriched by fines with its uppermost part laminated, created by rapid sedimentation under moderate-concentration, weakly tractive conditions, with the uppermost laminated part reflecting a dilute depositional regime with grain-by-grain traction deposition. By analogy to laboratory experiments, mixing at the flow head of the PDC created a turbulent dilute wake above the body of a gravity current, with layer B deposited by the flow body and layer C by the wake. The uppermost layer D of fines and accretionary lapilli is an ash fallout deposit of the finest particles from the high-rising buoyant thermal plume derived from the sediment-depleted pyroclastic density current. The strong similarity among these eruptions and their deposits suggests that these cases represent similar source, transport and depositional phenomena.     

Fluid geochemistry of Montserrat Island,West Indies

 Two geochemical surveys carried out in March 1991 and September 1992 revealed the existence of a hydrothermal system in the southern portion of Montserrat Island, below Soufrière Hills Volcano. This conclusion is supported by the presence of: (a) the thermal springs of Plymouth which are fed by deep Na–Cl waters (Cl concentration ∼25 000 mg/kg, temperature ca. 250  °C) mixed with shallow steam-heated waters; (b) the four fumarolic fields of Galway's Soufrière, Gages Upper Soufrière, Gages Lower Soufrière, and Tar River Soufrière, where acid to neutral, steam-heated waters are present together with several fumarolic vents, discharging vapors formed through boiling of hydrothermal aqueous solutions. Involvement of magmatic fluids in the recharge of the hydrothermal aquifers is suggested by: (a) the high ³He/⁴He ratios of fumarolic fluids, i.e., 8.2 R_A at Galway's Soufrière and 5.9 R_A at Gages Lower Soufrière; (b) the δD and δ¹⁸O values of Na–Cl thermal springs and steam condensates, indicating the involvement of arc-type magmatic water in the formation of deep geothermal liquids; and (c) the CH₄/CO₂ ratios of fumarolic fluids, which are lower than expected for equilibrium with the FeO–FeO_1.5 hydrothermal rock buffer, but being shifted towards the SO₂–H₂S magmatic gas buffer. Received: 26 March 1996 / Accepted: 19 July 1996     

Objective rapid delineation of areas at risk from block-and-ash pyroclastic flows and surges

Assessments of pyroclastic flow (PF) hazards are commonly based on mapping of PF and surge deposits and estimations of inundation limits, and/or computer models of varying degrees of sophistication. In volcanic crises a PF hazard map may be sorely needed, but limited time, exposures, or safety aspects may preclude fieldwork, and insufficient time or baseline data may be available for reliable dynamic simulations. We have developed a statistically constrained simulation model for block-and-ash type PFs to estimate potential areas of inundation by adapting methodology from Iverson et al. (Geol Soc America Bull 110:972–984, 1998) for lahars. The predictive equations for block-and-ash PFs are calibrated with data from several volcanoes and given by A = (0.05 to 0.1)V ^2/3, B = (35 to 40)V ^2/3, where A is cross-sectional area of inundation, B is planimetric area and V is deposit volume. The proportionality coefficients were obtained from regression analyses and comparison of simulations to mapped deposits. The method embeds the predictive equations in a GIS program coupled with DEM topography, using the LAHARZ program of Schilling (1998). Although the method is objective and reproducible, any PF hazard zone so computed should be considered as an approximate guide only, due to uncertainties on the coefficients applicable to individual PFs, the authenticity of DEM details, and the volume of future collapses. The statistical uncertainty of the predictive equations, which imply a factor of two or more in predicting A or B for a specified V, is superposed on the uncertainty of forecasting V for the next PF to descend a particular valley. Multiple inundation zones, produced by simulations using a selected range of volumes, partly accommodate these uncertainties. The resulting maps show graphically that PF inundation potentials are highest nearest volcano sources and along valley thalwegs, and diminish with distance from source and lateral distance from thalweg. The model does not explicitly consider dynamic behavior, which can be important. Ash-cloud surge impact limits must be extended beyond PF hazard zones and we provide several approaches to do this. The method has been used to supply PF and surge hazard maps in two crises: Merapi 2006; and Montserrat 2006–2007.     

Seismic hybrid swarm precursory to a major lava dome collapse: 9–12 July 2003, Soufriere Hills Volcano,Montserrat

A swarm of ≈ 9500 hybrid earthquakes preceded the 12–13 July 2003 dome collapse at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. Most events had nearly identical waveforms and cross-correlation was applied to measure inter-event periods as well as phase arrival times to determine accurate relative location. Hypocenter depths were shallow (< 3 km), and relative locations were confined to a radius of < 150 m. This small source volume is consistent with the observed waveform similarity. Changes in inter-event periods and energy release, measured from the seismic records, showed that the volcano evolved through several energetic states, possibly linked to cyclic magma movement. Shorter inter-event periods were linked to higher energy release rates and possibly reflect increased pressurization during periods of low extrusion rates.     

Sediment-charged flash floods on Montserrat: The influence of synchronous tephra fall and varying extent of vegetation damage

On 20th May 2006 the Soufrière Hills Volcano on the Caribbean island of Montserrat experienced a large dome collapse and intense rainfall generated flash floods. The floods had very high loads of volcanic debris derived both from this and previous eruptions and can thus be classified as lahars. The floods reached unusually high water levels and caused substantial geomorphic change in the Belham Valley. Detailed rainfall and geomorphological data, coupled with the precise timing of events and yewitness accounts have facilitated an assessment of the relative importance of rainfall volume and intensity, older volcanic debris, pre- and syn-flood tephra fall and the extent of pre-flood vegetation damage for the behavior of this and subsequent sediment-laden floods in this setting. The change in runoff behavior was controlled by preexisting vegetation damage and synchronous tephra fall and this was critically important in controlling the impact of these flash floods. Although rainfall intensity and volume have some control on flood occurrence they are not the critical control on flash flood impact on the geomorphology in the Belham Valley. A significant conclusion of this study is that the extreme nature of the flash floods was not caused by extreme rainfall (as is commonly believed to be the primary cause of flash floods) but rather it was the result of changed runoff behaviour caused by the widespread syn-flood tephra deposition and importantly the widespread vegetation damage by volcanic-associated acid rain in the preceding weeks.     

Kinematic Modeling of Pyroclastic Flows Produced by Gravitational Dome Collapse at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat

Volcanic activity commenced 18 July 1995 at SoufriereHills volcano and has led to the creation of a newlava dome, which has repeatedly collapsed between 1996and 1999 resulting in highly mobile pyroclastic flows. The majority of associated pyroclastic flow phenomenaare consistent with initiation by gravitationalcollapse as blocks fall from oversteepened flanks ofthe new dome. If gravity controls the energy transferof such collapses, then areas likely to be affectedcan be predicted on the basis of topography. We focuson `dense' flows initiated by non-explosive,gravitational collapse (`Merapi-type' pyroclasticflows) and employ a graphical computer model (Flow3D)written to simulate this type of volcanic flow. Theprogram constructs a digital terrain model based upona 3D network of (x, y, z) triplets, which serves as thebasis for the numerical computations. A synthetic domewas added to the topographic model to improve theaccuracy of the simulations. After estimating thesmall number of key adjustable parameters, simulatedflow pathways, runout distances, and velocitiesclosely approximated observed Merapi-type pyroclasticflows on Montserrat. These simulations demonstrate thevalidity of a simple kinematic method to model densepyroclastic flow phenomena. While the simulationspresented here do not elucidate additional physics ofpyroclastic flow phenomena, this type of modeling canbe completed easily and without extensivea priori knowledge of volcano-specific parameters otherthan topography. Accordingly, it may serve as a rapidand inexpensive first-order approach for initialhazard assessment.     

The issue of trust and its influence on risk communication during a volcanic crisis

This paper investigates trust in the scientists, government authorities and wider risk management team during the ongoing volcanic crisis in Montserrat, WI. Identifying the most trusted communicator and how trust in information can be enhanced are considered important for improving the efficacy of volcanic risk communication. Qualitative interviews, participant observations and a quantitative survey were utilised to investigate the views and attitudes of the public, authorities and scientists. Trust was found to be dynamic, influenced by political factors made more complex by the colonial nature of Montserrat’s governance and the changing level of volcanic activity. The scientists were viewed by the authorities as a highly trusted expert source of volcanic information. Mistrust among some of the local authorities towards the scientists and British Governor was founded in the uncertainty of the volcanic situation and influenced by differences in levels of acceptable risk and suspicions about integrity (e.g. as a consequence of employment by the British Government). The public viewed friends and relatives as the most trusted source for volcanic information. High trust in this source allowed competing messages to reinforce beliefs of lower risk than were officially being described. The scientists were the second most trusted group by the public and considered significantly more competent, reliable, caring, fair and open than the authorities. The world press was the least trusted, preceded closely by the British Governor’s Office and Montserratian Government officials. These results tally well with other empirical findings suggesting that government ministers and departments are typically distrusted as sources of risk-related information. These findings have implications for risk communication on Montserrat and other volcanic crises. The importance and potential effectiveness of scientists as communicators, because of, and despite, the existence of political, cultural and institutional barriers, is exemplified by this study.