基于MGR模型的我国大陆地区各地震带1970年以来震级-频度关系和震级上限

本文利用两种常用的NGR和MGR模型,对我国大陆地区1970年以来各地震带的震级-频度关系和震级上限进行了修定.结果表明,MGR模型能很好地描述非线性的震级-频度关系,因此该模型更适合于我国大陆地区各地震带ML3.0以上地震的震级-频度关系,用MGR方法拟合确定震级上限时,样本量越高拟合的结果越准确.     

鄂霍次克微板块东部俯冲带区域地震b值及应力场特征

古登堡-里克特震级-频度关系式中的b值与剪切应力(或偏应力)大小被认为存在着负相关的关系,因此b值常被用作估算区域应力大小的指标.本文利用1970—2018年鄂霍次克微板块东部俯冲带区域的地震目录,使用最大似然法对该区域的b值进行空间扫描,得到了该区域沿海沟走向不同区域及不同深度的b值分布,进而调查与分析其应力状态及地球动力学特征.结果显示不同俯冲区域的b值分布具有4个共同特征:1)地壳范围内的高b值特征,表明其剪切应力较低;2)俯冲板片与上覆板块耦合强烈的区域b值较低,表明该位置剪切应力较高;3)弧前区域b值较高,表明其剪切应力较低;4)海沟东侧的太平洋板块与软流层接触的区域b值较高,表明该位置剪切应力较低.上述这些b值分布结果及其剪切应力分布,是能够与俯冲带的地球动力学结构与特征相关联的.我们也发现在水平方向上,在浅部区域(0～40km深度范围),勘察加地区的剪切应力相对于北日本地区和千岛地区更低;在更深的区域(40～80km深度范围),千岛地区弧前区域的剪切应力较低.由本文俯冲带区域力平衡估算得到的俯冲接触面上的剪应力大小能够解释鄂霍次克微板块东部俯冲带不同接触界面上的b值大小及...     

Hillslope erosion by rainstorms–a magnitude-frequency analysis

Daily rainfall data for four stations in Europe and east Africa are used to obtain, by means of magnitude-frequency analysis, a measure of the Cumulative Erosion Potential (CEP) that takes into account rainfall characteristics, soil water storage, and granulometric properties of soils. The CEP has the advantage of being calculated from generally available published rainfall data, so that wide regional coverage is possible. Together with additional data on the surface configuration and on seasonal variations of rainfall and plant cover, the CEP can provide a basis for estimating hillslope erosion by overland flow.     

地震震级－频度关系b值参数的稳健估计

文中依据古登堡－里克特（Ｇ－Ｒ）震级－频度公式，结合实例说明了参数ｂ值的稳健估计方法，并将其与最小二乘法及最大似然法比较。结果表明，一般情况下，稳健估算结果与实际数据分布较吻合，并且可以在不剔除低震级段和大震级段的偏离分布值的情况下，取得与选取合理震级上下限后最小二乘法一致的结果。此外，稳健估计结果的余差分析同样也得到地震震级－频度关系不是简单的对数线性关系的结果，而原始Ｇ－Ｒ公式需加二次以上的高次项才能较好地描述该特性。     

The concept of dominant discharge applied to two gravel-bed streams in relation to channel stability thresholds

Dominant discharge may be defined as that discharge which transports most bed sediment in a stream that is close to steady-state conditions. The concept is examined in relation to two single thread gravel-bedded streams. One stream is alluvial and free to adjust its geometry whilst in the other, channel capacity and form are partially constrained by cohesive till-banks and a heavily compacted bed. The total quantity of bedload and its calibre were measured for every flood over a six year period, so that the relationship between the grain-size of bedload and the most effective discharge could be examined in the context of thresholds for channel change. The dominant discharge concept was applicable to the alluvial stream in that the bankfull value is an effective discharge for maintaining channel capacity. The concept applied less well to the ‘non-alluvial’ stream. Although in both streams the bankfull value was exceeded for less than 0.34 per cent of the time, overbank flows are important in instigating channel change. It is only during overbank flows that the largest bed material is entrained in quantity. For within-channel flows a threshold separates flows which winnow fine matrix from those which entrain the finer bed gravels. This threshold occurred at 60 per cent bankfull. It was concluded that the dominant discharge concept can be applied to streams close to steady-state which are alluvial, competent, and free to adjust their boundaries. An important proviso is that two channel-stability domains can be recognized. These domains represent channel maintenance and channel adjustment and are defined by intrinsic thresholds in the bed material entrainment function.     

震级-频度关系小震端分布特征的一种可能的解释

通过震级-频度关系资料和地震台站分布资料的分析,发现震级-频度关系曲线在震级较小的一端的分布特征反映了地震能量分形和地震台站状况交互作用的结果,从而在地震序列分析中,考虑不同历史时期地震台站的状况及其影响,是一项必不可少的工作.     

A statistical analysis of upper and lower limits of earthquake magnitude

The relationship between frequency and magnitude in homogeneous series of earthquakes is studied. The linear relation of Gutenberg and Richter between the logarithm of frequency and the magnitude is found to be applicable only in a restricted range of magnitudes.The plots of the cumulative number of earthquakes versus magnitude for 20 different series (the total number of events in a single series ranging from about 50 to more than 3000) clearly indicate the presence of vertical asymptotes. This fact suggests that upper and lower limits could exist for the magnitude of a single event, i.e. for the energy that can be released in an earthquake. From the position of the vertical asymptotes it is possible to obtain the upper and lower bounds of magnitude for each series of earthquakes. The empirical shape of the cumulative number-magnitude distribution can be well represented by equilateral hyperbolas. A least ² method has been used to obtain the best-fitting hyperbolas and corresponding the minimum and maximum magnitudes for each series.The shape of the frequency-magnitude relationship is discussed in lesser detail. It is found, however, that after suitable rescaling the earthquakes in each series follow much the same law, with a comparatively small scatter.     

地震震级—频度G-R关系的偏离度

假设震级—频度分布服从对应于G-R式母体分布污染的情况,文中引进震级分布偏离度(ζ)来描述实际资料分布与G-R式的偏离程度。在G-R式分布参数稳健估计的基础上给出了偏离度的计算方法。华北地区1980—1993年取资料时间窗长1年,滑动步长1个月的ζ值计算结果表明,6级左右强地震前的半年至一年半左右ζ值明显为相对稳定的低值,震后呈高值变化。它可能反映了强震孕育发生过程中地震活动强度分形结构的变化,存在一个有序态(确定性)和无序态(浑沌)转化的自组织性质。ζ值可在地震预报中作为一个分析判定指标。     

地震序列的特征震级研究

在研究各类地震序列震级一频度客观分布的基础上,我们对45个地震序列的特征震级M0的普遍特征及差别作了进一步研究。结果,为地震预报探讨了一种可能的方法一用特怔震级M0≥2．0（或平均震级M≥2．1）作为地震预报的一个前兆性指标。同时还发现,当序列中主要事件超过7级以后,M0和M均限定在很小的震级域内变化。     

Quantitative studies of global seismicity (2)

In this paper, the seismicity indexes of global earthquakesM ≥ 6 during 1964–1983 were calculated, using data of ISC and USGS. The authors suggested a method suitable to make a set of regression formulas betweenm _bandM _s. Calculation showed that the level of global seismicity of shallow earthquakes during the years 1964–1965, 1968, 1971, 1975–1976 was higher than normal, especially the peak for the years 1975–1976 was more conspicuous. The year 1984 took the place of the year 1954 in the 20th century as the year of lowest global shallow focus seismicity. According to the actual value ofA(b) calculated, the level of deep focus seismicity reached the highest point in 1971 and dropped to the lowest point in 1977. In the time interval of 1977–1983 the global shallow focus seismicity decreased continuously whereas the deep focus seismicity increased with fluctuations.