Modelling and forecasting long-term dynamics of Western Baltic macrobenthic fauna in relation to climate signals and environmental change

Long-term macrobenthos data from Kiel Bight in the Western Baltic collected between 1968 and 2000 have been correlated with the winter NAO index (North Atlantic Oscillation Index) and other environmental data such as temperature, salinity and oxygen content in the bottom water in order to detect systematic patterns related to so far unexplained abiotic signals in the dynamics of zoobenthic species assemblages. The benthos data come from a cluster of five stations (Süderfahrt/ Millionenviertel) in Kiel Bay. Our investigations concentrated on the macrobenthic dynamics with a focus on the number of species m^− 2 (species richness). Using logarithms and the time series analysis approach of Box/Jenkins (ARIMA modelling, transfer function modelling) it was shown that species richness was strongly influenced by the winter NAO (adjusted for a linear time trend within the 1968-2000 period) and salinity (with a shift/lag of four years). Bootstrapping experiments (i.e. sampling from the error process) and analysis of prediction power (by means of the one- or more-years leaving-out method) showed that the parameter estimates behaved in a stable way, leading to a relatively robust model.     

Relative abundance, age, growth, and fecundity of grubby Myoxocephalus aenaeus in Niantic River and Niantic Bay, Long Island Sound

Grubby (Myoxocephalus aenaeus, Cottidae) is a common benthic fish of inshore waters and estuaries of eastern Long Island Sound; however, little information exists on their life history or population demographics. This study utilised a long-term data series (1976–2002) to assess grubby life history and population demographics and explores trends in the Niantic River and Niantic Bay populations. In addition, we examined the age, size, and fecundity of adult grubby in 2001–02 to determine the population characteristics in the region. Mean grubby catch per unit effort (CPUE) in Niantic Bay ranged from 0.4 per trawl in 1976 to 2.9 per trawl in 1984 while river CPUE ranged from 0.4 per trawl in 1977 to 7.6 per trawl in 1989. Catch of grubby in bottom trawls varied seasonally with highest CPUE occurring in winter. Highest entrainment of grubby larvae occurred in 2001 while the lowest entrainment observed was in 1991. Four age classes, 0+ through III+, were derived from otolith analysis (N = 51) although length frequency analysis suggested the possibility of older fish in the population. The total number of eggs in ovaries ranged from 286 to 16 451 for grubby (N = 64) between 52 mm and 155 mm TL. Results of this study indicated a decline in abundance of adult grubby over the 26-year period, possibly related to concurrent declines in eelgrass (Zostera marina) abundance and/or increased water temperature.     

Long-term changes in the fish community structure from the Tsushima warm current region of the Japan/East Sea with an emphasis on the impacts of fishing and climate regime shift over the last four decades

Japanese fisheries production in the Japan/East Sea between 1958 and 2003 increased to their peak (1.76 million tons) in the late 1980s and decreased abruptly with the collapse of Japanese sardine. Catch results for 58 fisheries and various environmental time-series data sets and community indices, including mean trophic level (MTL) and Simpson’s diversity index (DI), were used to investigate the impacts of fishing and climate changes on the structure of the fish community in the Tsushima warm current (TWC) region of the Japan/East Sea. The long-term trend in fisheries production was largely dependent on the Japanese sardine that, as a single species, contributed up to 60% of the total production in the Japanese waters of the Japan/East Sea during the late 1980s. Excluding Japanese sardine, production of the small pelagic species was higher during 1960s and 1990s but lower during 1970s and 1980s. This variation pattern generally corresponds with the trend in water temperature, warmer before early 1960s and after 1990s but colder during 1970s and 1980s. The warm-water, large predatory fishes and cold water demersal species show opposite responses to the water temperature in the TWC region, indicating the significant impact of oceanic conditions on fisheries production of the Japan/East Sea. Declines in demersal fishes and invertebrates during 1970s and 1980s suggested some impact of fishing. MTL and DI show a similar variation pattern: higher during 1960s and 1990s but lower during 1970s and 1980s. In particular, the sharp decline during the 1980s resulted from the abundant sardine catches, suggesting that dominant species have a large effect on the structure of the fish community in the Japan/East Sea. Principal component analysis for 58 time-series data sets of fisheries catches suggested that the fish community varied on inter-annual to inter-decadal scales; the abrupt changes that occurred in the mid-1970s and late 1980s seemed to correspond closely with the climatic regime shifts in the North Pacific. These results strongly suggest that the structure of the fish community in the Japan/East Sea was largely affected by climatic and oceanic regime shifts rather than by fishing. There is no evidence showing “fishing down food webs” in the Japan/East Sea. However, in addition to the impacts of abrupt shifts that occurred in the late 1980s, the large predatory and demersal fishes seem to be facing stronger fishing pressure with the collapse of the Japanese sardine.     

Modeling erosion of sedimentary coasts in the western Russian Arctic

Morphodynamic modeling is employed in the present work to predict the long-term evolution (over the next 100 years) of typical sedimentary coasts in the western Russian Arctic. The studied objects are the coasts of Varandey (the Barents Sea), Baydaratskaya Bay and Harasavey (the Kara Sea). The model developed takes into account both the short-term processes (storm events) and long-term factors (for example, changes in sea level, inter-annual variations in gross sediment flux, lack or excess of sediment supply). Predicted and observed morphological changes in coastal profiles are shown to agree well for time scales ranging from weeks to decades. It is revealed that under given environmental conditions, the morphological evolution is strongly influenced by storm surges and associated wind-driven circulation. The water level gradient created by a surge generates a seaward flow at the bed. This outflow is shown to be an important destructive mechanism contributing to the erosion and recession of Arctic coasts. The rate of change is found to depend on both the exposure of the coast (relative to the direction of dominant winds) and its height above the sea. The open coast of Varandey is expected to retreat as much as 300–500 m over 100 years, while recession of the less exposed coasts of Baydaratskaya Bay would not exceed about 100 m/century. If long-term sediment losses are insignificant, the rate of erosion decays with time and the morphodynamic system may tend toward equilibrium. It is concluded that the expected relative sea-level rise (up to 1 m over the nearest 100 years) is non-crucial to the future coastal evolution if an erosion activity is already high enough.     

Transfer-function modelling between environmental variation and mesozooplankton in the Baltic Sea

Time series of freshwater runoff, seawater salinity, temperature and oxygen were used in transfer functions (TF) to model changes of mesozooplankton taxa in the Baltic Sea from the 1960’s to the 1990’s. The models were then compared with long term zooplankton monitoring data from the same period. The TF models for all taxa over the whole Baltic proper and at different depth layers showed statistically significant estimates in t-tests. TF models were further compared using parsimony as a criterion. We present models showing 1) r² > 0.4, 2) the smallest residual standard error with the combination of exploratory variables, 3) the lowest number of parameters and 4) the highest proportional decrease in error term when the TF model residual standard error was compared with those of the univariate ARIMA model of the same response variable. Most often (7 taxa out of a total of 8), zooplankton taxa were dependent on freshwater runoff and/or seawater salinity. Cladocerans and estuarine copepods were more conveniently modelled through the inclusion of seawater temperature and oxygen data as independent variables. Our modelling, however, explains neither the overall increase in zooplankton abundance nor a simultaneous decrease found in the neritic copepod, Temora longicornis. Therefore, biotic controlling agents (e.g. nutrients, primary production and planktivore diets) are suggested as independent variables for further TF modelling. TF modelling enabled us to put the controlling factors in a time frame. It was then possible, despite the inherent multiple correlation among parameters studied to deduce a chain-of-events from the environmental controls and biotic feedback mechanisms to changes in zooplankton species. We suggest that the documented long-term changes in zooplankton could have been driven by climatic regulation only. The control by climate could be mediated to zooplankton through marine chemical and physical factors, as well as biotic factors if all of these were responding to the same external control, such as changes in the freshwater runoff. Increased runoff would explain both the increasing eutrophication, causing the overall increase of zooplankton, and the changes in selective predation, contributing to decline of Temora.     

Morphodynamics of intertidal bars on a megatidal beach, Merlimont, Northern France

The morphology, bedforms and hydrodynamics of Merlimont beach, in northern France, characterised by intertidal bars and a spring tidal range of 8.3 m, were surveyed over a 10-day experiment with variable wave conditions that included a 2-day storm with significant wave heights of up to 2.8 m. The beach exhibited two pronounced bar-trough systems located between the mean sea level and low neap tide level. Waves showed a cross-shore depth modulation, attaining maximum heights at high tide. The mean current was characterised dominantly by strong tide-induced longshore flows significantly reinforced by wind forcing during the storm, and by weaker, dominantly offshore, wave-induced flows. Vertical tidal water-level variations (tidal excursion rates) showed a bimodal distribution with a peak towards the mid-tide position and low rates near low and high water. The two bar-trough systems in the mid-tide zone remained stable in position during the experiment but showed significant local change. The absence of bar migration in spite of the relatively energetic context of this beach reflects high macro-scale bar morphological lag due to a combination of the large vertical tidal excursion rates in the mid-tide zone, the cross-shore wave structure, and the pronounced dual bar-trough system. The profile exhibited a highly variable pattern of local morphological change that showed poor correlation with wave energy levels and tidal excursion rates. Profile change reflected marked local morphodynamic feedback effects due mainly to breaks in slope associated with the bar-trough topography and with trough activity. Change was as important during low wave-energy conditions as during the storm. Strong flows in the entrenched troughs hindered cross-shore bar mobility while inducing longshore migration of medium-sized bedforms that contributed in generating short-term profile change. The large size and location of the two pronounced bars in the mid-tide zone of the beach are tentatively attributed respectively to the relatively high wave-energy levels affecting Merlimont beach, and to the cross-shore increase in wave height hinged on tidal modulation of water depths. These two large quasi-permanent bars probably originated as essentially breakpoint bars and are different from a small bar formed by swash and surf processes in the course of the experiment at the mean high water neap tide level, which is characterised by a certain degree of tidal stationarity and larger high-tide waves.     

Efficacy of beach dewatering — Alassio,Italy

The goal of this study is to estimate the efficiency of dewatering operations in Alassio Beach, north Italy by following an integrated approach which included beach volume calculations, daily mapping of the shoreline position, examination of specific beach widening events and daily comparisons of morphodynamic characteristics of the drained beach versus a control section which included wave run-up, bar patterns, rip migration, evolution of the berm and cusp morphology.     

The history and impact of air pollution at Čertovo Lake,southwestern Czech Republic

This multi-disciplinary investigation documents the longterm effects of atmospheric pollution of metals and acids on a geologically sensitive catchment in the umava Mountains, southwestern Czech Republic, a region with a long history of human disturbance. A 30 cm long sediment core (I) from ertovo Lake was analyzed for natural and artifical radionuclides, metals, diatoms, chrysophytes, and pollen in sediments accumulated during the last 200 years. A second core (II), extending to 95 cm, included sediment judged to be free of atmospheric deposition of pollutants associated with the Industrial Revolution. Chronostratigraphic markers include several changes in the pollen assemblages corresponding to well-documented changes in land-use, and distinct distributions of ¹³⁷Cs, ¹³⁴Cs and ²⁴¹Am from weapons testing and the 1986 nuclear accident at Chernobyl, Russia. These markers corroborate the ²¹⁰Pb dating and, together, produce a reliable chronology extending back nearly to 1800 A.D.Stratigraphic profiles of Cu, Pb, and Zn in Core I are unlike any previously reported in the literature. Concentrations of Cu, Pb, and Zn remain generally above 100, 400, and 200 g g^-1, respectively, for the 200 years represented by Core I. These values are unusually high for sediments from a watershed with no known heavy-metal ore bodies. Accumulation rates for Cu, Pb, and Zn, which include both atmospheric and watershed contributions, are also high (ca 1, > 1 and > 1 g cm^-2 yr^-1, respectively) for the same period, although the anthropogenic contribution of Zn rose from nearly zero at 1800 A.D. The Cu and Pb accumulation rates rose dramatically about 1640 A.D.Accumulation rates of anthropogenically-derived Be, a relatively abundant element in the soft coals of the region, are also elevated by about 0.01 g cm^-2 yr^-1 in sediments of this period. Vanadium accumulation rates increased only since 1980 A.D., presumably along with increased consumption of oil.Diatom assemblages illustrate that the lake was acidic (pH between 4.5 and 5) through at least the past 200 years. The pH declined significantly (from ca 5 to 4) between 1960 and 1985 with a slight increase to 4.5 in the last few years. Recent diatom and chrysophyte assemblages suggest high trace metal concentrations, consistent with the present lake-water chemistry.     

Form, function and feedbacks in a tidally dominated ooid shoal, Bahamas

Although the general aspects of oolitic depositional systems are well documented, seascape‐scale (≈10³–10⁶ m²) patterns of oolitic shoals and the details of processes acting on them are not well understood or quantified. To begin to fill this basic gap in understanding, this paper describes the morphology and hydrodynamics of Lily Bank, a Modern tidally dominated Bahamian ooid shoal. In this study, integrating remote sensing imagery with quantitative, geo‐located bathymetrical, hydrological and granulometric data in a Geographic Information System documents geomorphic and sedimentological patterns and facilitates interpreting these patterns in the context of the processes operating in this system. The results of these analyses reveal that parabolic bars up to several kilometres in wavelength and several metres in height form a common morphologic motif, although there is considerable variation on that general theme. The seascape‐scale configuration of bars and superimposed sedimentary structures is closely linked to spatial patterns of tidal movements, and includes the presence of mutually evasive flood and ebb channels. Sedimentologically, bars are neither homogenous nor random bodies; instead, granulometric parameters such as sorting and percentage mud vary systematically, as shaped by hydro‐geomorphic controls. The best sorted, coarsest ooids are on bar crests, whereas the finest grains are found in the lower energy, deeper interior and flanking regions. In short, results clearly document hydrodynamic‐bathymetrical influences on these ooid shoals and their granulometry, linkages akin to siliciclastic analogues. Sedimentological, hydrodynamic and geomorphic observations are consistent with a conceptual model for the formation of parabolic bars in which initial irregularities in non‐parabolic bars are enhanced through their effect of focusing flow. Constricted flow leads to higher flow velocities, tidal flow velocity asymmetries, differential net sediment transport and growth of bathymetrical highs. This bathymetrical divergence creates separate paths for flood‐ and ebb‐tides, facilitating emergence of better‐developed parabolic forms. The resultant parabolic geometries and component bedforms appear to be either in dynamic equilibrium with both ebb‐ and flood‐tide flows, or evolving toward that state. In exploring patterns and processes within carbonate shoals, this study illustrates some of the first documented insights on quantitative details of morphology and dynamics and in the links between geomorphic framework and grain‐size and sorting in an oolitic carbonate system. Assuming a continuity of processes between ancient and modern, the insights from this shoal provide information on possible facies geometries and on the characteristics of grains and depositional porosity of analogous facies within ancient ooid shoals.     

红层地区砂泥岩互层状斜坡岩体流变特性研究

本文在对侏罗系砂溪庙组砂，泥岩进行的系统流变试验的基础上，详细研究了砂，泥岩的流变特性及其相应的长期强度，以及砂，泥岩互层状组成的斜坡碉体流变特征，特别是模拟研究了风化深度较厚的泥岩产生的粘塑性流动对斜坡应力场及斜坡变形破坏所起的不可忽视的作用。