The Earthquake Readiness Scale: The Development of a Valid and Reliable Unifactorial Measure

Preparedness is a key dependent variable in many studies examining people’s response to disasters such as earthquakes. A feature of many studies on this issue, however, is the lack of attention given to psychometric issues when constructing measures of preparedness. With regard to earthquake preparation, for example, many studies could be greatly improved by the use of a valid and reliable measure of preparedness. This research developed such a measure that assessed both low-level preparedness, such as having an emergency kit, and high-level preparedness, such as altering home structures to mitigate damage. Studies of Wellington (New Zealand) residents using two samples totalling n=652 showed that 23 items measuring these different aspects of earthquake preparation could be combined into a reliable, valid, unifactorial scale. This brief scale should have utility in multivariate studies of earthquake preparation, either as a dependent variable, where preparation is the outcome variable of primary interest, or as one of several independent variables, where preparation and other measures predict another outcome variable.     

Transformation of Residuals to Avoid Artifacts in Geostatistical Modelling with a Trend

Trend modelling is an important part of natural resource characterization. A common approach to account for a variable with a trend is to decompose it into a relatively smoothly varying trend and a more variable residual component. Then, the residuals are stochastically modelled independent of the trend. This decomposition can result in values outside the plausible range of variability, such as grades below zero or ratios that exceed 1.0. We transform the residuals conditional to the trend component to explicitly remove these complex features prior to geostatistical modelling. Back transformation of the modelled residual values allows the complex relations to be reproduced. A petroleum-related application shows the robustness of the proposed transformation. Furthermore, a mining application shows that when this conditional transformation is applied to the original variable, instead of the residual, simulated values are assured to be nonnegative.     

江苏暴雨概率预报及其业务应用

以未来12~36 h、36~60 h和60~84 h的暴雨预报为目标,利用2011年—2013年夏季6—8月欧洲细网格数值模式预报产品分析了江苏夏季暴雨的可能预报因子。通过对各因子进行相关性、敏感性和代表性分析后,优选了22个对不同强度降水具有较好区分能力的暴雨预报因子。以这些因子为基础建立了一种简单的江苏省暴雨概率预报方法。其预报产品已在江苏省气象业务一体化平台上投入业务使用。该方法在2011—2013年7月,针对提前12 h预报的历史回报试验中,TS技巧评分平均为13.6,明显高于EC细网格24 h降水预报产品(平均TS评分仅为4.5)。在2014年梅汛期的6月25—26日、7月1—2日和7月4—5日三次区域性暴雨个例的预报试验中,提前60、36、12 h的预报效果均较好,其平均TS评分(44.6)也明显高于欧洲细网格数值模式的降水预报(20.4)。     

Sensitivity of Mesoscale Model Forecast During a Satellite Launch to Different Cumulus Parameterization Schemes in MM5

The identification of the model discrepancy and skill is crucial when a forecast is issued. The characterization of the model errors for different cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) provides more confidence on the model outputs and qualifies which CPSs are to be used for better forecasts. Cases of good/bad skill scores can be isolated and clustered into weather systems to identify the atmospheric structures that cause difficulties to the forecasts. The objective of this work is to study the sensitivity of weather forecast, produced using the PSU-NCAR Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) during the launch of an Indian satellite on 5th May, 2005, to the way in which convective processes are parameterized in the model. The real-time MM5 simulations were made for providing the weather conditions near the launch station Sriharikota (SHAR). A total of 10 simulations (each of 48 h) for the period 25th April to 04th May, 2005 over the Indian region and surrounding oceans were made using different CPSs. The 24 h and 48 h model predicted wind, temperature and moisture fields for different CPSs, namely the Kuo, Grell, Kain-Fritsch and Betts-Miller, are statistically evaluated by calculating parameters such as mean bias, root-mean-squares error (RMSE), and correlation coefficients by comparison with radiosonde observation. The performance of the different CPSs, in simulating the area of rainfall is evaluated by calculating bias scores (BSs) and equitable threat scores (ETSs). In order to compute BSs and ETSs the model predicted rainfall is compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observed rainfall. It was observed that model simulated wind and temperature fields by all the CPSs are in reasonable agreement with that of radiosonde observation. The RMSE of wind speed, temperature and relative humidity do not show significant differences among the four CPSs. Temperature and relative humidity were overestimated by all the CPSs, while wind speed is underestimated, except in the upper levels. The model predicted moisture fields by all CPSs show substantial disagreement when compared with observation. Grell scheme outperforms the other CPSs in simulating wind speed, temperature and relative humidity, particularly in the upper levels, which implies that representing entrainment/detrainment in the cloud column may not necessarily be a beneficial assumption in tropical atmospheres. It is observed that MM5 overestimates the area of light precipitation, while the area of heavy precipitation is underestimated. The least predictive skill shown by Kuo for light and moderate precipitation asserts that this scheme is more suitable for larger grid scale (>30 km). In the predictive skill for the area of light precipitation the Betts-Miller scheme has a clear edge over the other CPSs. The evaluation of the MM5 model for different CPSs conducted during this study is only for a particular synoptic situation. More detailed studies however, are required to assess the forecast skill of the CPSs for different synoptic situations.     

油气地化指标得分和方法在油气化探异常评价中的应用

以我国华北某油区油气勘探为例,介绍了油气地球化学异常评价标志及依据,并利用这些评价标志——异常形态、异常组合、异常规模(N4P)、变异系数、构造圈闭等在油气地化异常评价中的作用,给出不同的分值,按评分标准对圈定的异常求出累积得分和,据此对油气化探异常所圈定的远景区进行排序,为进一步的油气勘查提供地球化学依据,并取得了较好的效果。     

区域集合预报系统2 m温度预报的校准技术

采用非齐次高斯回归 (NGR) 技术对国家气象中心区域集合预报系统的2 m温度预报结果开展了一阶偏差和二阶离散度的校准研究。对预报结果比较详尽的检验分析表明:校准后的2 m温度预报可靠性和预报技巧均显著提高,表现为校准后集合预报成员的均方根误差与离散度更为接近;原Talagrand直方图中的“L”形分布现象得到有效改善;Brier评分、最小连续分级概率评分 (CRPS) 明显减小,相对作用特征 (ROC) 面积增大,说明校准后的2 m温度预报表现出更好的预报技能。此外,NGR技术与自适应误差订正技术的对比试验表明,NGR在消除集合平均偏差和提高集合离散度两个方面均有优势。     

Monitoring wetland ditch water levels in the North Kent Marshes,UK, using Landsat TM imagery and ground-based measurements

Abstract

An understanding of hydrology is a prerequisite for ensuring the successful management, conservation and restoration of wetland environments. Frequently, however, little is known about historical hydrological conditions, such as water levels, within wetlands. Moreover, many channel and ditch systems in wetlands are not routinely monitored, except perhaps for research purposes. A methodology is presented herein which makes use of satellite imagery to indirectly provide remotely sensed observations of water levels within channels and ditches. Using multi-temporal Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery and simultaneous ground-based measurements of water levels, statistical relationships are established between satellite-derived effective wet ditch widths and measured water levels in the drainage system of the Elmley Marshes, southeast England. These relationships can be used subsequently to estimate historical ditch water levels and to monitor contemporary ditch water levels in the wetland. The study shows that satellite imagery has much to offer in monitoring changes in the hydrological regime of wetlands and in providing complimentary approaches to field monitoring.     

Quantitative precipitation forecasting over Narmada Catchment

Quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) has been attempted over the Narmada Catchment following a statistical approach. The catchment has been divided into five sub-regions for the development of QPF models with a maximum lead-time of 24 hours. For this purpose the data of daily rainfall from 56 raingauge stations, twice daily observations on different surface meteorological parameters from 28 meteorological observatories and upper air data from 11 aerological stations for the nine monsoon seasons of 1972–1980 have been utilized. The horizontal divergence, relative vorticity, vertical velocity and moisture divergence are computed using the kinematic method at different pressure levels and used as independent variables along with the rainfall and surface meteorological parameters. Multiple linear regression equations have been developed using the stepwise procedure separately with actual and square root and log-transformed rainfall using 8-year data (1972–1979). When these equations were verified with an independent data for the monsoon season of 1980, it was found that the transformed rainfall equations fared much better compared to the actual rainfall equations. The performance of the forecasts of QPF model compared to the climatological and persistence forecasts has been assessed by computing the verification scores using the forecasts for the monsoon season of 1980.     

A note on the performance of climatic forecasts for Asia based on the periodic portion of the data: 1986–1987

Between 1973 and 1986 a group at the University of Wisconsin worked on the use of the periodic portion of climatic time series with the aim of exploring the potential for year-or-more in advance forecasting. This paper reports on the real time verification of the last sets of forecasts made by the group. From spectra of temperature and cube-rooted precipitation the dominant frequencies were chosen. These were usually related to tidal frequencies. A Fourier series of these dominant terms was then fitted to the dependent data set and future values calculated. These were analyzed for forecast skill, and the skillful Fourier series retained. Real time forecasts were then made. Verification shows a low probability that the forecast skills were obtained by chance. It is suggested that the periodic term might be a useful addition to more standard approaches to long range forecasting.     

全球尺度多源土地覆被数据融合与评价研究

精确的全球及区域尺度土地覆被遥感分类数据是全球变化、陆地表层过程模拟、生态文明建设及区域可持续发展等研究的重要基础数据。本文以5套全球土地覆被数据集GLCC、UMD、GLC2000、MODIS LC、GlobCover为研究对象,结合MODIS VCF、MODIS Cropland Probability以及AVHRR CFTC数据集,设计一种基于模糊逻辑思想的证据融合方法实现上述多源土地覆被信息的决策融合,生成一套依据植物功能型分类的全球1 km土地覆被融合数据SYNLCover。结果显示,与5套源土地覆被数据集相比：① 在总体一致性精度上,SYNLCover的8个生物形态类型和12个目标类型的平均总体一致性精度最高,分别约为65.6%和59.4%,其次依次是MODIS LC、GLC2000、GLCC和GlobCover,UMD的最低,分别约为48.9%和42.6%,而且SYNLCover与5套源土地覆被数据集两两相比的总体一致性都是最好的;② 在类型一致性精度上,除灌丛类型外,SYNLCover中包括森林、草地、耕地、湿地、水体、城镇建筑和其他7种生物形态类型,以及森林类型的5种叶属性的平均一致性精度也是最高的,如其他类型的平均一致性精度可达67.73%;③ 除灌丛和湿地类型外,SYNLCover的其余6种生物形态类型的平均一致性精度均比其在5套源数据中相应的一致性精度的最大值提高了10%~15%左右;森林类型的5种叶属性的一致性精度也提高了约10%。SYNLCover分类精度的提高反映了本研究设计的多源数据融合方法的可行性和有效性。