南海罗斯贝变形半径的地理及季节变化

根据南海 1°× 1°网格的标准层季节平均温、盐度资料 ,在未引入Boussinesq近似条件下 ,采用改进的Thompson Haskell算法求解线性化斜压海洋水平大尺度波的垂直结构方程 (重力内波方程 ) ,从而得到了南海各网格点的第一斜压重力波相速度和相应的罗斯贝变形半径 ,并探讨其地理分布和季节变化特征 ,以期有助于南海环流和中尺度涡旋以及有关海洋侧边界效应的研究。     

冰盖下矩形河道的综合糙率

综合糙率是采用曼宁公式确定河道水位和流量关系的关键参数。在河道冰封期,冰盖的出现增加了流动的阻力,明流条件下确定的综合糙率不再适用,需要重新估算。基于Einstein阻力划分过流断面的原理,冰盖下矩形河道的过水断面可划分为冰盖区、河床区和边壁区。根据总流的连续性方程,在确定各分区糙率系数、水力半径和断面面积的基础上,提出了冰盖下矩形河道综合糙率的计算公式。采用已有的试验水槽测量数据和天然河道实测资料对公式进行了验证,结果表明:公式计算的综合糙率与实测值吻合较好,与Einstein公式和Sabaneev公式相比,计算精度更高;对于冰封水流,宽浅河道采用分区水深代替水力半径进行简化计算的条件有别于明渠水流,在宽深比大于20时,计算结果才满足精度要求。     

Geological control factors of micro oil distribution in tight reservoirs

Understanding the oil distribution characteristics in unconventional tight reservoirs is crucial for hydrocarbon evaluation and oil/gas extraction from such reservoirs. Previous studies on tight oil distribution characteristics are mostly concerned with the basin scale. Based on Lucaogou core samples, geochemical approaches including Soxhlet extraction, total organic carbon (TOC), and Rock-Eval are combined with reservoir physical approaches including mercury injection capillary pressure (MICP) and porosity-permeability analysis, to quantitatively evaluate oil distribution of tight reservoirs on micro scale. The emphasis is to identify the key geological control factors of micro oil distribution in such tight reservoirs. Dolomicrites and non-detrital mudstones have excellent hydrocarbon generation capacity while detritus-containing dolomites, siltstones, and silty mudstones have higher porosity and oil content, and coarser pore throat radius. Oil content is mainly controlled by porosity, pore throat radius, and hydrocarbon generation capacity. Porosity is positively correlated with oil content in almost all samples including various lithologies, indicating that it is a primary constraint for providing storage space. Pore throat radius is also an important factor, as oil migration is inhibited by the capillary pressure which must be overcome. If the reservoir rock with suitable porosity has no hydrocarbon generation capacity, pore throat radius will be decisive. As tight reservoirs are generally characterized by widely distributed nanoscale pore throats and high capillary pressure, hydrocarbon generation capacity plays an important role in reservoir rocks with suitable porosity and fine pore throats. Because such reservoir rocks cannot be charged completely. The positive correlation between hydrocarbon generation capacity and oil content in three types of high porosity lithologies (detritus-containing dolomites, siltstones, and silty mudstones) supports this assertion.     

The terrestrial fauna of the Late Triassic Pant-y-ffynnon Quarry fissures,South Wales,UK and a new species of Clevosaurus (Lepidosauria: Rhynchocephalia)

Pant-y-ffynnon Quarry in South Wales yielded a rich cache of fossils in the early 1950s, including articulated specimens of new species (the small sauropodomorph dinosaur Pantydraco caducus and the crocodylomorph Terrestrisuchus gracilis), but no substantial study of the wider fauna of the Pant-y-ffynnon fissure systems has been published. Here, our overview of existing specimens, a few described but mostly undescribed, as well as freshly processed material, provides a comprehensive picture of the Pant-y-ffynnon palaeo-island of the Late Triassic. This was an island with a relatively impoverished fauna dominated by small clevosaurs (rhynchocephalians), including a new species, Clevosaurus cambrica, described here from a partially articulated specimen and isolated bones. The new species has a dental morphology that is intermediate between the Late Triassic Clevosaurus hudsoni, from Cromhall Quarry to the east, and the younger C. convallis from Pant Quarry to the west, suggesting adaptive radiation of clevosaurs in the palaeo-archipelago. The larger reptiles on the palaeo-island do not exceed 1.5?m in length, including a small carnivorous crocodylomorph, Terrestrisuchus, and a possible example of insular dwarfism in the basal dinosaur Pantydraco.     

The Relationship between Deterministic and Ensemble Mean Forecast Errors Revealed by Global and Local Attractor Radii

It has been demonstrated that ensemble mean forecasts, in the context of the sample mean, have higher forecasting skill than deterministic(or single) forecasts. However, few studies have focused on quantifying the relationship between their forecast errors, especially in individual prediction cases. Clarification of the characteristics of deterministic and ensemble mean forecasts from the perspective of attractors of dynamical systems has also rarely been involved. In this paper, two attractor statistics—namely, the global and local attractor radii(GAR and LAR, respectively)—are applied to reveal the relationship between deterministic and ensemble mean forecast errors. The practical forecast experiments are implemented in a perfect model scenario with the Lorenz96 model as the numerical results for verification. The sample mean errors of deterministic and ensemble mean forecasts can be expressed by GAR and LAR, respectively, and their ratio is found to approach2~(1/2) with lead time. Meanwhile, the LAR can provide the expected ratio of the ensemble mean and deterministic forecast errors in individual cases.     

3套资料中西北太平洋热带气旋活动特征的比较分析

本文使用中国气象局、美国联合台风预警中心和日本气象厅的3套热带气旋最佳路径资料(CMA资料、JTWC资料和RSMC资料)分析了1951—2016年西北太平洋热带气旋活动特征。3套资料反映的结果如下:热带气旋主要发生在10°N—25°N范围内,且1980年前其位置点在纬度上有南移的变化趋势,1980年后则相反;移速主要分布在2~6 m/s区间,在25°N左右移速明显加快,1980年前移速呈显著减小趋势;最大持续风速主要分布在10~15 m/s区间,1980年前最大持续风速有减小趋势;在风速较大的区域热带气旋最大风速半径较小,2001—2016年热带气旋和台风最大风速半径每年分别减小0.46 km和0.54 km。CMA和RSMC资料的结果高度一致,而JTWC资料结果与它们都存在一定的差异。热带气旋位置点频数和强度的变化受资料间差异的影响较大,而其位置及移速的变化则受影响较小。     

Rapid invasion of Crassostrea gigas into the German Wadden Sea dominated by larval supply

Invasions of non-indigenous species into coastal habitats have been a frequent phenomenon in the last decades, sometimes with significant impact on the receiving ecosystem. However, the understanding of the entire process and especially the relative importance of larval supply and local recruitment remains unclear. In this study, we simulate the invasion of a benthic invertebrate into a previously uncolonised habitat over several years and validate the results with field data. Therefore, we present field data from a monitoring programme revealing the rapid invasion of the oyster Crassostrea gigas into the East Frisian Wadden Sea, North Sea, between 2003 and 2005. The applied model combines a simple, spatially-explicit population dynamics model for the adult stage with a particle tracking model for the larval stage of the life cycle. Simulation results are able to reproduce the large-scale pattern of the field data and indicate a domination of larval supply on the population dynamics in the early stage of the invasion. Though monitoring and simulations suggest a single larval source outside the study area in the west, the population dynamics in the eastern part is only explainable with an additional source within the study area attributed to an unintentional input of juveniles by mussel fishery. High sensitivities to uncertain parameters result in distinct deviations between monitoring and simulations at particular sites. Especially the impact of site-specific variations of the post-settlement mortality underlines the variability of local recruitment conditions and indicates the need for spatially resolved information for exact predictions.     

海洋表层气泡运动规律的研究

建立了海洋表层气泡运动和半径变化的数学模型,通过计算发现一定深度的气泡存在一个临界半径;在一定初始深度气泡的半径小于临界半径时不能到达水面,随着时间的增长,气泡半径逐渐变小,直至最终溶解;气泡的半径大于临界半径时,气泡随着时间的增长,半径逐渐增大,直至达到水面破碎;气泡的初始深度不同,其临界半径也不同;半径在临界点附近的气泡的存活时间最长.对海洋表层气泡运动规律的研究对了解海洋表层气泡的分布规律有重要意义.     

云顶以下臭氧对TOMS反演臭氧总量的影响及反演方法的理论研究

目前紫外后向散射反演臭氧总量的所有算法,都将云考虑成不透明的Lambertian反射体,并假定云顶有效反照率不随波长的变化而变化.然而本文通过模拟计算发现,由于云散射、瑞利散射、臭氧吸收三种作用的综合结果,云顶的有效反照率是与波长相关的,即使光学厚度比较大的云,辐射也可由云顶继续向下传输,因而会受到云顶以下臭氧吸收的影响.用V7方法进行反演,模拟计算结果表明：云的出现使得云顶以下,特别是云内光程增强,导致紫外波段的臭氧吸收衰减增大,所以反演出的臭氧总量值比真实值偏大,本文称这种现象为“云吸收效应”,并讨论了该效应的影响因子.最后,在辐射传输模拟的基础上建立一套反演算法,大大减弱了“云吸收效应”的影响.     

储层毛细管压力曲线在东海油气储量计算中的应用

本文阐述了利用储层毛细管压力曲线计算含油炮和度的方法,该方法在东海油气储量计算中取得良好的结果。