用树木年轮重建伊犁南天山北坡西部的降水量序列

根据采自伊犁地区南天山北坡11个采点的树木年轮样本,建立了每个采点的3种年表。通过单相关普查发现,标准化树轮年表序列与当年1~5月的降水显著相关。分析表明该时段降水与树木年轮生长呈正相关具有明确的树木生理学意义。利用新源上限(XNAUt)、昭苏上限(ZUt、ZUt 2)和特克斯下限(TLt)4个标准化树轮年表序列可较好地重建该区域在该时段的降水量。经交叉检验,所得重建方程是稳定可靠的,重建的降水序列是可信的。通过分析发现:伊犁地区南天山北坡300年以来1~5月的降水大致经历了6个偏湿阶段和6个偏干阶段;有2.0~2.8年、24.8年、28.3年、33年、99年的变化准周期;在1909年发生由多向少的突变;1740年、1870年发生由少向多的突变,其中又以1870年前后的突变最为明显。     

甘孜州天然林禁伐的影响与区域持续发展对策

森林采伐向来是甘孜州经济的重大支柱，对地方财政收入的贡献率达58．63％（1997年）。天然林禁伐影响巨大而广泛，既使经济产出与财政收入锐减，又导致一系列相关 产业萎缩，劳动就业压力增大，研究指出，选择新经济增长点与生长点产业大力加以培育发展迫在眉睫。其中，以加大财政转移支付力度加强基础设施建设、加强绿色产品与绿色食品发展以及天然药物开发，大力发展旅游业和流通产业等应是正确选择。     

我国贫困山区可持续发展的因素与目标研究--以黔江地区为例

以黔江地区为例,分析了我国贫困山区可持续发展面临的主要问题和具备的有利条件,在此基础上把区域看作一个完整的系统,运用系统论的观点建立了区域可持续发展的目的体系,并采用灰色系统等定量分析技术与定性分析相结合的方法,探讨了区域可持续发展目标的制定方法。     

中国科技资源配置效率测度及其时空格局演变特征(英文)

According to the connotation and structure of science and technology resources and some relevant data of more than 286 cities at prefecture level and above during 2001–2010, using modified method—Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA), science and technology(ST) resource allocation efficiency of different cities in different periods has been figured out, which, uncovers the distributional difference and change law of ST resource allocation efficiency from the time-space dimension. Based on that, this paper has analyzed and discussed the spatial distribution pattern and evolution trend of ST resource allocation efficiency in different cities by virtue of the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis(ESDA). It turned out that:(1) the average of ST resource allocation efficiency in cities at prefecture level and above has always stayed at low levels, moreover, with repeated fluctuations between high and low, which shows a decreasing trend year by year. Besides, the gap between the East and the West is widening.(2) The asymmetrical distribution of ST resource allocation efficiency presents a spatial pattern of successively decreasing from Eastern China, Central China to Western China. The cities whose ST resource allocation efficiency are at higher level and high level take on a cluster distribution, which fits well with the 23 forming urban agglomerations in China.(3) The coupling degree between ST resource allocation efficiency and economic environment assumes a certain positive correlation, but not completely the same. The differentiation of ST resource allocation efficiency is common in regional development, whose existence and evolution are directly or indirectly influenced by and regarded as the reflection of many elements, such as geographical location, the natural endowment and environment of ST resources and so on.(4) In the perspective of the evolution of spatial structure, ST resource allocation efficiency of the cities at prefecture level and above shows a notable spatial autocorrelation, which in every period presents a positive correlation. The spatial distribution of ST resource allocation efficiency in neighboring cities seems to be similar in group, which tends to escalate stepwise. Meanwhile, the whole differentiation of geographical space has a diminishing tendency.(5) Viewed from LISA agglomeration map ofST resource allocation efficiency in different periods, four agglomeration types have changed differently in spatial location and the range of spatial agglomeration. And the continuity of ST resource allocation efficiency in geographical space is gradually increasing.     

地市级城镇天气预报制作及传输系统设计与实现

在城镇精细化预报制作和传输特点及需求分析的基础上,阐述了地市级城镇天气预报制作与传输系统的设计思路、功能实现和系统应用.系统选取PowerBuilder 7.0开发环境,PowerScript可视化编程语言,在Windows 2000操作系统上研制而成.由人机交互、预报自动传输和预报查询3个子系统构成,可制作城镇精细化、短时、评分、城区、城区上下班等多项预报,可随时查询利用该系统制作和传输到本地服务器上的各项预报,可用人工与自动两种方式向省局传输所需的预报.该系统为省级以下气象台的预报员提供了一个可靠、高效的预报制作、传输平台,为预报服务人员提供了一个方便、快捷的预报查询平台.     

基于期刊论文的中国地级以上城市知识专业化研究

将287个地级以上城市（不包括港澳台地区）作为研究对象,以中国知网发布的168个学科领域期刊论文数量为数据来源,对中国地级以上城市知识专业化水平、影响因素及其与经济发展的关系进行了研究。研究发现：① 中国地级以上城市的专业化水平总体偏低,多样化水平较为明显;知识专业化水平西部地区>中部地区>东部地区;地区相对专业化指数随城市行政等级依次升高,即直辖市<副省级城市<省会城市<普通地级市。具有资源优势的城市,其知识专业化领域高度集中在以资源为基础的领域;中小城市的知识专业化领域相对较少,专业化程度高;大中城市知识专业化领域多,多样化趋势明显,但各领域的知识专业化程度相对较低。从城市等级上来看,知识专业化程度表现为五线城市>四线城市>三线城市>二线城市>一线城市。② 知识专业化水平主要受科教经济因素、人才潜力和服务业因素、工业基础因素、人口规模因素四大因素影响。③ 知识专业化与经济发展关系密切,整体呈现倒U形关系;但各区域随发展阶段不同,表现出不同的形式可以分为U形、倒U形、M形和W形4种大类型。     

温州深软场地剪切波速实测误差及其对PGA影响研究

该研究在温州两个深软土层场地上完成了剪切波速测试误差专项实验,统计拟合了误差分布规律并研究了其对PGA的影响,得到结论:每米深度上的实测误差基本符合标准正态分布,温州地区深软场地的测试误差与我国其他几个地区覆盖土层较浅场地上的每米实测误差程度基本相同;两个场地上各深度的误差标准差大致相同,约为16%;实测误差对PGA影响明显,误差取1倍标准差时PGA的变化程度可能达到30%,取2倍标准差时可能高达45%;PGA的变化程度受输入地震动的频率特性制约,长周期频率成分对深软场地计算结果的影响明显。     

Phosphorus and nitrogen cyclings in the pelagic system of hiroshima bay: Results of numerical model simulation

A numerical ecosystem model expressing both phosphorus and nitrogen cyclings in the pelagic system of Hiroshima Bay, Japan, was developed in order to investigate the seasonal variations of these elements and their annual budgets. Based on the geophysical and chemical structures of the bay, Hiroshima Bay was divided into northern and southern boxes, themselves divided into two layers of an upper 5 m and a lower layer according to the stratification of the water column. The model consists of equations representing all relevant physical and biological processes. The results revealed that the internal regeneration of materials was an important source of bioavailable nutrients for phytoplankton growth in the water column. The incorporation of phytoplankton aggregation improved the accuracy of the outputs in comparison to the observed data, especially during the stratified summer season. The results also indicated that phosphorus limitation of phytoplankton growth occurs in the upper layer during summer while light limitation occurs in the lower layer. In addition, physical processes such as diffusion and advection were also important as they ensured that most of regenerated nutrients in the lower layer were transported to the upper layer. Thus, these processes might support the high primary production and the production of oysters that are extensively cultured in this bay. Considering the informative results obtained, the model used in this study provides a sound basis and tool to describe the dynamics of phosphorus and nitrogen cyclings in Hiroshima Bay.     

甘孜州“7．23”特大泥石流灾害气象成因分析及防御对策研究

本文以甘孜州2009年“7．23”特大泥石流灾害为例,应用常规气象资料对灾害的气象成因及其灾害的诱发因素进行了分析。表明：短时强降水是引发这次特大泥石流灾害的直接原因。其地貌、地表及土壤结构状况本身以及大量地兴修水利,挖掘沙土,破坏生态平衡成为这次特大泥石流灾害发生的诱发因素。根据地质气象灾害的成因分析对防灾减灾提出具体的防御对策。     

基于克里格回归分析和机器学习算法的日本福岛县土地价格估算与制图的比较分析

Finding accurate methods for estimating and mapping land prices at the macro-scale based on publicly accessible and low-cost spatial data is an essential step in producing a meaningful reference for regional planners.This asset would assist them in making economically justified decisions in favor of key investors for development projects and post-disaster recovery efforts.Since 2005,the Ministry of Land,Infrastructure,and Transport of Japan has made land price data open to the public in the form of observations at dispersed locations.Although this data is useful,it does not provide complete information at every site for all market participants.Therefore,estimating and mapping land prices based on sound statistical theories is required.This paper presents a comparative study of spatial prediction of land prices in 2015 in Fukushima prefecture based on geostatistical methods and machine learning algorithms.Land use,elevation,and socioeconomic factors,including population density and distance to railway stations,were used for modeling.Results show the superiority of the random forest algorithm.Overall,land prices are distributed unevenly across the prefecture with the most expensive land located in the western region characterized by flat topography and the availability of well-connected and highly dense economic hotspots.