Statistical evaluation of methods for the calculation of static formation temperatures in geothermal and oil wells using an extension of the error propagation theory

The feasibility of using the more sophisticated weighted least-squares (WLS) model, as opposed to the traditional ordinary least-squares (OLS), in linear regressions of BHT data to estimate the static formation temperatures (SFT) was investigated. The most commonly used analytical methods (line-source; spherical and radial heat flow; and cylindrical heat source) were applied. Error propagation equations were derived to calculate errors in the time function of each method. These errors were combined with the BHT measurement errors to compute weighting factors for applying the WLS. Intercept uncertainties were estimated for all regressions using sets of synthetic and actual borehole logs taken from geothermal and oil applications. SFT computed with the spherical and radial heat flow method were generally greater than those from the other two methods.     

Study of geothermal water intrusion due to groundwater exploitation in the Puebla Valley aquifer system, Mexico

Significant intrusion of geothermal water into fresh groundwater takes place in the Puebla Valley aquifer system, Mexico. The decline in the potentiometric surface due to the overexploitation of the groundwater induces this intrusion. This hydrological system comprises three aquifers located in Plio-Quaternary volcanic sediments and Mesozoic calcareous rocks. The hydraulic balance of the aquifer shows that the annual output exceeds the natural inputs by 12 million m³. Between 1973 and 2002, a drop in the potentiometric surface, with an 80 m cone of depression, was identified in a 5-km-wide area located southwest of the city of Puebla. Chemical analyses performed on water samples since 1990 have shown an increase in total dissolved solids (TDS) of more than 500 mg/L, coinciding with the region showing a cone of depression in the potentiometric surface. A three-dimensional flow and transport model, based on the hydrogeological and geophysical studies, was computed by using the MODFLOW and MT3D software. This model reproduces the evolution of the aquifer system during the last 30 years and predicts for 2010 an additional drawdown in the potentiometric surface of 15 m, and an increase in the geothermal water intrusion.     

TDP-0844地震前兆数据综合采集器的研制

介绍了TDP—0844型地震前兆数据综合采集器采用的设计方案及工作原理，及各个功能模块的设计准则，并列出了采集器实现的功能。文章还给出了采集器的部分应用图例，证明该采集器能够满足地震前兆观测需要。     

地震前兆仪器嵌入TCP/IP协议的初步试验

根据“十五”总体设计方案的要求，对TCP／IP协议在地震前兆仪器上的实现进行了试验，在有关设备上进行了程序开发，取得了预期的效果。     

平面图形演化方法在地震预报中的应用

“平面图形演化方法”是利用无量刚的异常信息量来反映震前异常空间分布及其随时间的演化，从而预报发震时间和地点的一种方法，这种方法μ值等值线图法，μ值异常平面图法组成，它是通过绘制不同的时间上述二种平面图，通过分析水位，水化异常于震前在时间上，空间上的演化规律，寻找μ值异常集中区或高值区，异常丛集图像分布区，条带图像分布带及条带交叉图像地区，并考虑异常分布图像与活动构造带和地震带的关系，从而对强震发生     

华北北部场源前兆观测资料分析(一)──场源前兆特征与机制

1976年唐山地震前，在距震源很远的地区内都观测到一些前兆趋势变化，如重力、重力位二次徽商W△、水氧、地电阻率、水位和油井出油量等变化。作者认为这些变化不是由震源体直接引起的，而是在区域应力场的作用下，在某些活动断层附近，浅层岩，尤其是含水砂岩层和含油层受挤压出现的一些与地震有关的异常现象。其特征是：（1）异常范围大，可能在距震源很远的地方发生，但就同一种方法的多个观测点来说却又是局部的，即只有其中部分测点才能观测到异常，不少测点观测不到异常。（2）异常发生的时间大致相同。有些异常有同步变化的特征，如同时上升或同时下降。（3）临震前多数异常有恢复的趋势。这些特征与引起异常的机理有关。作者还从理论上计算了这种趋势异常量级，重力变化100×10-6cm／s2左右，重力位二次微商变化（1～2）×10－9／s2，地电阻率变化2％～3％，Rn变化7．4～11．1Bq／L，这样的变化量在活动断层附近的一些台站可能观测到。作者还研究了干旱降雨对某些前兆的影响，其影响量级可以被一些方法观测到，因此在确定是否是地震异常时，必须注意利用综合分析的方法排除干旱降雨的影响，减少异常的多解性。     

Physical universals in problem of precursor soliton generation

Six physical universals and two general relations in the problem of locally forced precursor soliton generation are found thcoretically in terms of the AfKdV equation derived by authors. These six universals and two general relations are examined by experiment and numerical calculation of two-layer flow based on the canonical character of the coefficients of tlie fKdV equations. From comparisons among the theoretical, numerical and experimental results, it is shown that they are in good agreement. There is not any free parameter in this theory, so the theory of the present paper can be used to predict thc wave properties of locally forced precursor soliton generation. Project supported hy Foundation of the State Education Commission for The Dynamics of Upper Ocean and grants of Physical Oceanography Laboratory of Ocean University of Qingdao.     

Preliminary study on the occurrence of geothermal systems in the tectonic compressional regions: an example from the Derman geothermal field in the Biga Peninsula, Turkey

There are numerous hot springs with temperatures ranging from 30 to 100 °C in Biga peninsula and they occur throughout the peninsula. The result of this study shows that the region is under a tectonic compressional regime. The investigation of the faults and fractures in the region indicates that the region has been affected first by N–S and then E–W compression since the Middle Miocene. Opening fractures and antithetic and synthetic faults due to the compressional movements provide paths for the deep circulation of water. In addition, the tectonic movements, granitic intrusion and volcanic activity have also played important roles as heat sources for the geothermal systems.     

我们是怎样预报松潘7.2级地震的——纪念松潘7.2级地震30周年

回顾了1976年8月16日松潘7.2级地震中期、短期与临震预报,以及震后趋势判断的过程,简述了当年预报所依据的各类前兆异常。     

西藏羊八井热田地热流体成因及演化的惰性气体制约

地热流体中惰性气体的相对丰度和同位素组成，不仅可以揭露热田的热源性质，而且还能够揭示深，浅层地热流体的内在联系和演化过程等。在西藏羊八井热田的地热气体中，已检测出大量的^4He组分，3He/^4He值是大气的0．087－0．259倍，表明深部地壳物质的局部熔融为热田提供能量，浅层地热流体的3He/4He 值自西北向东南呈降低趋势，与热储温度的变化相一致，反映出侧向运移时补充了更多的壳源氦，热田北区深层地热流体具有稍高的3He/4He值，是浅层地热流体的母源，气体中氪和氙的相对丰度具有大气降水成因的特征，结合现有的实际资料，建立了热田地热流体的概念模型。