形变大地测量学的进展、问题与地震预报

简要概括了形变大地测量学的革命性进展，研讨了它的科学特色、功能和定义以及对地球科学和防灾减灾的推动。形变大地测量学有助于从根本上击破多年来制约地震预报的“瓶颈”，但也存在不少急待解决的问题。着重研讨了在21世纪前10年，形变大地测量学如何依托多年的学科积累并充分受益于人造卫星和数字化等新技术，开展创新性研究和试验以推进地震预报。为此，对当前的研究工作提出了12条科学技术途径。最后对学科名称提出了建议。     

Seismic potential of Southern Italy

To improve estimates of the long-term average seismic potential of the slowly straining South Central Mediterranean plate boundary zone, we integrate constraints on tectonic style and deformation rates from geodetic and geologic data with the traditional constraints from seismicity catalogs. We express seismic potential (long-term average earthquake recurrence rates as a function of magnitude) in the form of truncated Gutenberg–Richter distributions for seven seismotectonic source zones. Seismic coupling seems to be large or even complete in most zones. An exception is the southern Tyrrhenian thrust zone, where most of the African–European convergence is accommodated. Here aseismic deformation is estimated to range from at least 25% along the western part to almost 100% aseismic slip around the Aeolian Islands. Even so, seismic potential of this zone has previously been significantly underestimated, due to the low levels of recorded past seismicity. By contrast, the series of 19 M6–7 earthquakes that hit Calabria in the 18th and 19th century released tectonic strain rates accumulated over time spans up to several times the catalog duration, and seismic potential is revised downward. The southern Tyrrhenian thrust zone and the extensional Calabrian faults, as well as the northeastern Sicilian transtensional zone between them (which includes the Messina Straits, where a destructive M7 event occurred in 1908), all have a similar seismic potential with minimum recurrence times of M ≥ 6.5 of 150–220 years. This potential is lower than that of the Southern Apennines (M ≥ 6.5 recurring every 60 to 140 years), but higher than that of southeastern Sicily (minimum M ≥ 6.5 recurrence times of 400 years). The high seismicity levels recorded in southeastern Sicily indicate some clustering and are most compatible with a tectonic scenario where the Ionian deforms internally, and motions at the Calabrian Trench are small. The estimated seismic potential for the Calabrian Trench and Central and Western Sicily are the lowest (minimum M ≥ 6.5 recurrence times of 550–800 years). Most zones are probably capable of generating earthquakes up to magnitudes 7–7.5, with the exception of Central and Western Sicily where maximum events sizes most likely do not exceed 7.     

The International GPS Service tracking network: Enabling diverse studies and projects through international cooperation

The International GPS Service (IGS), formulated beginning in 1989 and formalized in 1994, was founded on the collaborative operation of approximately 30 permanent GPS stations to benefit global geodynamics. The same cooperative principles, today applied to a network of over 300 stations, still serve to maximize global benefit without unnecessary duplication of investment in global infrastructure. The scope of applications of the dataset has grown to include atmospheric, oceanographic, subdaily, and low-earth orbiter activities through working groups and pilot projects fostered within the IGS in the now traditional IGS spirit of collaboration. These activities and the IGS infrastructure are viewed as critical elements to the Global Geodetic Observing System. This presentation will review the present nature of the IGS tracking network and its ability to support new applications.     

国际南极大地参考框架的构建与进展

回顾了南极大地参考框架发展的历史,总结了由国际南极研究科学委员会(SCAR)组织的历次南极地区大地测量观测活动的成果,并结合2007~2008第四次国际极地年(IPY)对南极大地参考框架的前景进行了展望,其中重点介绍了我国对构建南极大地参考框架的贡献。     

基于网络资源的“大地测量学基础”教学创新模式探索

针对“大地测量学基础”课程的特点和教学目标,对基于网络资源的教学创新模式进行探索和实践,有效地规范网络教学秩序,较好地保证网络教学效果,促进信息技术与教学活动的整合,并为个性化、研究式教学方法在网络教学领域内的具体实践提供环境依托。     

大地测量与地球动力学─兼述它与地球物理学的联系

随着近代观测和实验技术的发展，人们越来越重视对地球运动及其机理的认识，并注意到大地测量学与地球物理学和地球动力学的联系与渗透。本文将对以上三者的联系以及大地测量学在监测地球运动和研究地球动力事件中的作用作一综述，并对近年国内外这方面的研究进展作一介绍。     

GPS技术在地球科学中的应用和展望

GPS(全球定位系统)能为全球提供高精度、全天候、连续、实时的三维定位、三维测速和时间基准。本文对它在地球科学中的应用和可能的发展作一扼要介绍。其中,包括了它在几何大地测量、物理大地测量、地球动力学、海洋大地测量、测时和授时、工程测量、导航等方面的应用及其展望。     

Effect of common point selection on coordinate transformation parameter determination

The use of satellite positioning techniques commonly requires a transformation from a Conventional Terrestrial coordinate system to a Geodetic coordinate system, or vice versa. For such a transformation, the main problem is the determination of transformation parameters between these coordinate systems. The transformation parameters are estimated by a least-squares process using “common” points, i.e., those points whose coordinates are known in both systems. Therefore, the precision of so estimated transformation parameters is closely related to certain characteristics of the common points. In this contribution, we have formulated some theoretical relations between the transformation parameters and the number and the distribution of common points, and corroborated the theoretical results numerically, using a simulated geodetic network.     

Long-arc analyses of SLR observations of the Etalon geodetic satellites

In this paper we describe the results of an analysis of a 2.5-year set of satellite laser range observations of the two Etalon geodetic satellites. We fit continuous orbits to the range observations, and map the range residuals into series of equivalent orbital element residuals, considering in detail the orbital longitude, eccentricity and nodal residuals. We use the longitude residuals to study thermal effects acting on the satellites and compare the results with those published for the Lageos satellites. We discuss the differences between the two series of eccentricity residuals, and again compare the results with those from Lageos. Finally we use the nodal residuals to investigate the potential for determination of UT1 of the reference frame defined by the orbits of the Etalon satellites. Received: 30 January 1997 / Accepted: 11 December 1997