Study of the flood control scheduling scheme for the Three Gorges Reservoir in a catastrophic flood

The Three Gorges Project is the world's largest water conservancy project. According to the design standards for the 1,000‐year flood, flood diversion areas in the Jingjiang reach of the Yangtze River must be utilized to ensure the safety of the Jingjiang area and the city of Wuhan. However, once these areas are used, the economic and life loss in these areas may be very great. Therefore, it is vital to reduce this loss by developing a scheme that reduces the use of the flood diversion areas through flood regulation by the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), under the premise of ensuring the safety of the Three Gorges Dam. For a 1,000‐year flood on the basis of a highly destructive flood in 1954, this paper evaluates scheduling schemes in which flood diversion areas are or are not used. The schemes are simulated based on 2.5‐m resolution reservoir topography and an optimized model of dynamic capacity flood regulation. The simulation results show the following. (a) In accord with the normal flood‐control regulation discharge, the maximum water level above the dam should be not more than 175 m, which ensures the safety of the dam and reservoir area. However, it is necessary to utilize the flood diversion areas within the Jingjiang area, and flood discharge can reach 2.81 billion m³. (b) In the case of relying on the TGR to impound floodwaters independently rather than using the flood diversion areas, the maximum water level above the dam reaches 177.35 m, which is less than the flood check level of 180.4 m to ensure the safety of the Three Gorges Dam. The average increase of the TGR water level in the Chongqing area is not more than 0.11 m, which indicates no significant effect on the upstream reservoir area. Comparing the various scheduling schemes, when the flood diversion areas are not used, it is believed that the TGR can execute safe flood control for a 1,000‐year flood, thereby greatly reducing flood damage.     

长江上游洪涝暴雨环流形势中期演变趋势分析

本文通过对1980年以来长江上游10次洪涝过程的500hpa环流形势分析,并用车比雪夫多项式对500hpa高度场进行展开,研究了各类洪涝过程的中期演变特征,发现代表不同洪涝过程环流形势变化的不同的车氏系数值都有明显的特征变化,结合欧洲中心中期数值预告96小时500hpa高度场的车氏系数分析,可为洪涝暴雨的中期预报提供一种新的思路。     

Precipitation patterns in flood season over China associated with the El Niño/Southern Osciliation

The precipitation patterns in flood season over China associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are investigated, especially in the eastern China, using the rather long period rainfall data in this century. The results show that there were remarkable differences between the precipitation patterns in flood seasons of ENSO warm phase (El Niño year) and cold phase (La Niña year), as well as between the patterns in El Niño years and their following years. The most parts of China received below normal rainfall in flood season of the onset years of El Niño events, but the coastal area of Southeast China received above normal amounts. Comparatively, the most parts of China received above normal rainfall in flood season of the following years of El Niño events, but the eastern part of the reaches among the Huanghe (Yellow) River, the Huaihe River and the Haihe River, and the Northeast China received less. During ENSO cold phase, the reaches of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River and the North China received more amounts than normal rainfall in flood season of the onset years of La Niña events, and the other regions of China received less. In the following years of La Niña events, the coastal area of the Southeast China, the most part of the Northeast China and the regions between the Huanghe River and the Huaihe River received more precipitation during flood seasons, but the other parts received below normal precipitation.     

Rift-related Jurassic basaltic phreatomagmatic volcanism in the central Transantarctic Mountains: precursory stage to flood-basalt effusion

 The Middle Jurassic Kirkpatrick flood basalts and comagmatic Ferrar intrusions in the Transantarctic Mountains represent a major pulse of tholeiitic magmatism related to early stages in the breakup of Gondwana. A record of the volcano-tectonic events leading to formation of this continental flood-basalt province is provided by strata underlying and only slightly predating the Kirkpatrick lavas. In the central Transantarctic Mountains, the lavas rest on widespread (≥7500 km²) tholeiitic pyroclastic deposits of the Prebble Formation. The Prebble Formation is dominated by lahar deposits and is an unusual example of a regionally developed basaltic lahar field. Related, partly fault-controlled pyroclastic intrusions cut underlying strata, and vents are represented by the preserved flanks of two small tephra cones associated with a volcanic neck. Lahar and air-fall deposits typically contain 50–60% accidental lithic fragments and sand grains derived from underlying Triassic – Lower Jurassic strata in the upper part of the Beacon Supergroup. Juvenile basaltic ash and fine lapilli consist of nonvesicular to scoriaceous tachylite, sideromelane, and palagonite, and have characteristics indicating derivation from hydrovolcanic eruptions. The abundance of accidental debris from underlying Beacon strata points to explosive phreatomagmatic interaction of basaltic magma with wet sediment and groundwater, which appears to have occurred in particular where rising magma intersected upper Beacon sand aquifers. Composite clasts in the lahar deposits exhibit complex peperitic textures formed during fine-scale intermixing of basaltic magma with wet sand and record steps in subsurface fuel-coolant interactions leading to explosive eruption. The widespread, sustained phreatomagmatic activity is inferred to have occurred in a groundwater-rich topographic basin linked to an evolving Jurassic rift zone in the Transantarctic Mountains. Coeval basaltic phreatomagmatic deposits of the Mawson and Exposure Hill Formations, which underlie exposures of the Kirkpatrick Basalt up to 1500 km to the north along strike in Victoria Land, appear to represent other parts of a regional, extension-related Middle Jurassic phreatomagmatic province which developed immediately prior to rapid outpouring of the flood basalts. This is consistent with models which assign an important role to lithospheric stretching in the generation of flood-basalt provinces. Received: 28 August 1995 / Accepted: 18 April 1996     

Extreme Rainfall Events and Associated Natural Hazards in Alaknanda Valley, Indian Himalayan Region

Introduction The Himalaya is considered to be the youngest mountains on the earth, and is tectonically very active, and hence inherently (geologically) vulnerable to hazards. Extreme rainfall events, landslides, debris flows, torrents and flash floods due…     

Melting of the subcontinental lithospheric mantle by the Emeishan mantle plume; evidence from the basal alkaline basalts in Dongchuan, Yunnan, Southwestern China

The Emeishan continental flood basalt (ECFB) sequence in Dongchuan, SW China comprises a basal tephrite unit overlain by an upper tholeiitic basalt unit. The upper basalts have high TiO₂ contents (3.2–5.2 wt.%), relatively high rare-earth element (REE) concentrations (40 to 60 ppm La, 12.5 to 16.5 ppm Sm, and 3 to 4 ppm Yb), moderate Zr/Nb and Nb/La ratios (9.3–10.2 and 0.6–0.9, respectively) and relatively high _{Nd (t)} values, ranging from − 0.94 to 2.3, and are comparable to the high-Ti ECFB elsewhere. The tephrites have relatively high P₂O₅ (1.3–2.0 wt.%), low REE concentrations (e.g., 17 to 23 ppm La, 4 to 5.3 ppm Sm, and 2 to 3 ppm Yb), high Nb/La (2.0–3.9) ratios, low Zr/Nb ratios (2.3–4.2), and extremely low _{Nd (t)} values (mostly ranging from − 10.6 to − 11.1). The distinct compositional differences between the tephrites and the overlying tholeiitic basalts cannot be explained by either fractional crystallization or crustal contamination of a common parental magma. The tholeiitic basalts formed by partial melting of the Emeishan plume head at a depth where garnet was stable, perhaps > 80 km. We propose that the tephrites were derived from magmas formed when the base of the previously metasomatized, volatile-mineral bearing subcontinental lithospheric mantle was heated by the upwelling mantle plume.     

Phase Relations and Melting of Anhydrous K-bearing Eclogite from 1200 to 1600{degrees}C and 3 to 5 GPa

To investigate eclogite melting under mantle conditions, wehave performed a series of piston-cylinder experiments usinga homogeneous synthetic starting material (GA2) that is representativeof altered mid-ocean ridge basalt. Experiments were conductedat pressures of 3·0, 4·0 and 5·0 GPa andover a temperature range of 1200–1600°C. The subsolidusmineralogy of GA2 consists of garnet and clinopyroxene withminor quartz–coesite, rutile and feldspar. Solidus temperaturesare located at 1230°C at 3·0 GPa and 1300°C at5·0 GPa, giving a steep solidus slope of 30–40°C/GPa.Melting intervals are in excess of 200°C and increase withpressure up to 5·0 GPa. At 3·0 GPa feldspar, rutileand quartz are residual phases up to 40°C above the solidus,whereas at higher pressures feldspar and rutile are rapidlymelted out above the solidus. Garnet and clinopyroxene are theonly residual phases once melt fractions exceed 20% and garnetis the sole liquidus phase over the investigated pressure range.With increasing melt fraction garnet and clinopyroxene becomeprogressively more Mg-rich, whereas coexisting melts vary fromK-rich dacites at low degrees of melting to basaltic andesitesat high melt fractions. Increasing pressure tends to increasethe jadeite and Ca-eskolaite components in clinopyroxene andenhance the modal proportion of garnet at low melt fractions,which effects a marked reduction in the Al₂O₃ and Na₂O contentof the melt with pressure. In contrast, the TiO₂ and K₂O contentsof the low-degree melts increase with increasing pressure; thusNa₂O and K₂O behave in a contrasted manner as a function ofpressure. Altered oceanic basalt is an important component ofcrust returned to the mantle via plate subduction, so GA2 maybe representative of one of many different mafic lithologiespresent in the upper mantle. During upwelling of heterogeneousmantle domains, these mafic rock-types may undergo extensivemelting at great depths, because of their low solidus temperaturescompared with mantle peridotite. Melt batches may be highlyvariable in composition depending on the composition and degreeof melting of the source, the depth of melting, and the degreeof magma mixing. Some of the eclogite-derived melts may alsoreact with and refertilize surrounding peridotite, which itselfmay partially melt with further upwelling. Such complex magma-genesisconditions may partly explain the wide spectrum of primitivemagma compositions found within oceanic basalt suites. KEY WORDS: eclogite; experimental petrology; mafic magmatism; mantle melting; oceanic basalts     

Re-Os同位素对峨眉山大火成岩省成因制约的探讨

峨眉山大火成岩省（ELIP）主要由玄武岩、玄武质火山碎屑岩及少量的苦橄岩（包括越南的科马提岩）、长英质岩石以及层状岩体和岩墙组成,其物质来源直接关系到其成因是否与地幔柱活动有关。Re-Os同位素体系是地核、地幔和地壳物质的最佳示踪剂。前人对ELIP内的Re-Os同位素研究表明,低Ti玄武岩的Os含量为0．006×10^-9-0．40010^-9,^187Os／^188Os初始值为0．1371～1．403,并提出其与地幔柱活动有关;而高Ti玄武岩的Os含量为0．00410^-9～0．56010^-9,^187Os／^188Os初始值为0．1271～5．19,认为起源于大陆岩石圈地幔或地幔柱上升过程中受到大量岩石圈地幔“混染”（xu JF et al．,2007）;科马提岩的0s含量为1．2410^-9～7．0010^-9,^187Os／^188Os初始值为0．1251～0．1261,苦橄岩的Os含量为0．3210^-9～2．32910^-9,^187Os／^188Os初始值为0．1233～0．1266,指示苦橄岩和科马提岩均来自亏损地幔源区（Hanski et al．,2004;陈雷等,2007）。本文利用Os含量最低、^187Os／^188Os最高的高Ti玄武岩作为地壳端员,用铁质陨石、原始上地幔（PUM）和亏损地幔（DMM）作为地核和各种地幔端员,分别做二元混合计算,结果显示绝大多数玄武岩和所有苦橄岩及科马提岩均落在地壳和DMM混合曲线附近,并且邻区特提斯洋地幔岩与DMM具有相近的Os含量和^187Os／^188Os组成,据此推测峨眉山火成岩的形成与特提斯洋的活动有关,主要受控于地壳和亏损地幔的相互作用。     

基于分布式水文模拟的三峡区间洪水预报(Ⅰ)——模型构建及验证

长江三峡区间因暴雨形成的洪水峰高量大,对三峡水库的防洪安全和运行调度的影响很大.本论文依据三峡地区的地形地貌特征,采用基于GIS的机理性分布式水文模型,来模拟三峡区间入库洪水,以尽量减少洪水预报中的不确定性.利用近期建成的78个自动雨量站网监测的小时降雨信息作为模型的输入,对模型参数进行了率定和验证,结果表明:大多数洪水过程的模拟精度较好,但也有的模拟结果较差,其中降雨信息缺失是洪水预报不确定性的主要来源.     

浙江省小流域山洪灾害临界雨量确定方法分析

小流域山洪灾害具有突发性,预测预警难度较大.本文结合浙江省小流域山洪灾害防御的实践经验,研究提出了以水位反推法计算临界雨量,简单实用,具有较好的实践价值和推广意义.