Progress in Earthquake Science and Technology in China: Review and Prospects (Ⅰ)

In the article the author looks back the hard development course and great progress in earth quake science and technology in China during the last near a half of century and expounds the following 3 aspects: (1) The strong desire of the whole society to mitigate seismic disasters and reduce the effect of earthquakes on social-economic live is a great driving force to push forward the development of earthquake science and technology in China; (2) To better ensure people‘ s life and property, sustainable economic development, and social stability is an essential purpose to drive the development of earthquake science and technology in China; and (3) To insist on the dialectical connection of setup of technical system for seismic monitoring with the scientific research of earthquakes and to better handle the relation between crucial task, current scientif ic level, and the feasibility are the important principles to advance the earthquake science and technology in China. Some success and many setbacks in earthquake disaster mitigation consistently enrich our knowledge regarding the complexity of the conditions for earthquake occurrence and the process of earthquake preparation, promote the reconstruction and modernization of technical system for earthquake monitoring, and deepen the scientific research of earthquakes. During the last 5 years, the improvement and modernization of technical system for earthquake monitoring have clearly provided the technical support to study and practice of earthquake prediction and pre caution, give prominence to key problems and broaden the field of scientific research of earth quakes. These have enabled us to get some new recognition of the conditions for earthquake oc currence and process of earthquake preparation, characteristics of seismic disaster, and mecha nism for earthquake generation in China‘s continent. The progress we have made not only en courages us to enhance the effectiveness of earthquake disaster mitigation, but also provides a basis for accelerating further development of earthquake science and technology in China in the new century, especially in the 10th five-year plan. Based on the history reviewed, the author sets forth a general requirement for develop ment of earthquake science and technology in China and brings out 10 aspects to be stressed and strengthened at present and in the future. These are: upgrade and setup of the network of digitized seismic observation; upgrade and setup of the network for observation of seismic pre cursors; setup of the network for observation of strong motion; setup of the laboratories for ex periment on seismic regime; establishment of technical system for seismic information, emer gency command and urgent rescue; research on short-term and imminent earthquake predic tion; research on intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction; research on attenuation of seismic ground motion, mechanism for seismic disaster, and control on seismic disaster; ba sic research fields related to seismology and geoscience. We expect that these efforts will signifi cantly elevate the level of earthquake science and technology in China to the advanced interna tional level, improve theories, techniques, and methods for earthquake precaution and predic tion, and enhance the effectiveness of earthquake disaster mitigation.     

Progresses in geology and hazards analysis of Tianchi Volcano

A number of different lahars have been recognized from a systematic survey of a mapping project. The high setting temporamre feature of the deposits indicates a relationship between the lahar and the Millennium eruption event of Tianchi Volcano. The lahars caused a dramatic disaster. Recognize of the huge avalanche scars and deposits around Tianchi Volcano imply another highly destructive hazard. Three types of different texture of the avalanche deposits have been recognized. There was often magma mixing processes during the Millennium eruption of Tianchi Volcano, indicating a mixing and co-eruption regime of the eruption.     

菏泽市地质灾害现状与防治

菏泽市地质灾害类型主要为地震、地面塌陷、地面沉降、地裂缝、砂土液化、土地盐渍化及地氟病等，其发育与分布受地质构造、水文地质条件的控制以及气象、人类活动等因素的影响。就其分布、危害、致灾原因等做了分析，并提出了防治建议和对策。     

Age estimates of coastal terraces in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and their tectonic implications

The great Indian Ocean earthquake of December 26, 2004 caused significant vertical changes in its rupture zone. About 800 km of the rupture is along the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, which forms the outer arc ridge of the subduction zone. Coseismic deformation along the exposed land could be observed as uplift/subsidence. Here we analyze the morphological features along the coast of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, in an effort to reconstruct the past tectonics, taking cues from the coseismic effects. We obtained radiocarbon dates from coastal terraces of the island belt and used them to compute uplift rates, which vary from 1.33 mm yr^− 1 in the Little Andaman to 2.80 mm yr^− 1 in South Andaman and 2.45 mm yr^− 1 in the North Andaman. Our radiocarbon dates converge on  600 yr and  1000 yr old coastal uplifts, which we attribute to the level changes due to two major previous subduction earthquakes in the region.     

Nonlinear dynamic finite element simulation of Alibey earth dam

In this study, dynamic behavior and earthquake resistance of Alibey earth dam was investigated. The dam was modeled with four node plane-strain finite elements (FE) and displacement-pore pressure coupled FE analyses were performed. Nonlinear material models such as pressure dependent and independent multi yield materials were implemented during the analyses. Transient dynamic FE analyses were performed with Newmark method. The Newton-Raphson solution scheme was adopted to solve the equations. Liquefaction and/or cyclic mobility effects were considered during the analysis. For the FE analyses, OpenSees (Open System for Earthquake Engineering Simulation) framework was adopted.     

Natural radioactivity in sediment of Wei River,China

The concentrations of natural radionuclides in sediment of Wei River of China were measured using γ-ray spectrometry with the aim of estimating the radiation hazard as establishing a database for radioactivity levels of river sediment of China. The activity concentrations of ²²⁶Ra, ²³²Th and ⁴⁰K in sediment samples ranged from 10.4 to 39.9 Bq kg⁻¹, 15.3 to 54.8 Bq kg⁻¹ and 514.8 to 1,175.5 Bq kg⁻¹, respectively. The concentrations of these radionuclides were compared with the typical world values and the average activities of Chinese soil and Shaanxi soil. Radium equivalent activity (Ra_eq), external hazard index (H _ex) and representative level index (I _γr) were calculated for the samples to assess the radiation hazards arising due to the use of these sediment samples in the construction of dwellings. All the sediment samples have Ra_eq lower than the limit of 370 Bq kg⁻¹, H _ex less than unity and I _γr close to 1 Bq kg⁻¹. The overall mean outdoor terrestrial gamma dose rate is 64.8 nGy h⁻¹ and the corresponding outdoor annual effective dose is 0.079 mSv. None of the studied location is considered a radiological risk and sediment can be safely used in construction.     

Rain-induced debris and mudflow triggering factors assessment in the Santiago cordilleran foothills,Central Chile

Debris and mudflows are some of the main geological hazards in the mountain foothills of the Chilean capital city of Santiago. There, the risk of flows triggered in the basins of ravines that drain the range into the city increases with time due to the city growth. A multivariate statistical study based on the logistic regression method is presented. The model provides equations that allow the computation of combined meteorological triggering factors associated with a probability of rain-induced flow occurrence. Daily rainfall, accumulated rainfall and the snowfall level, traditionally considered as the relevant factors, are analysed for a 25-year period. The results show a strong relevance of the rainfall on the day of the flow event over the other factors. However, the relatively low probabilities returned for some real flow events suggest that the model does not capture all the significant variables and the problem is more complex than as it has been traditionally assumed, and further investigations are needed to develop predictive models of flow triggering.     

Integration and magnitude homogenization of the Egyptian earthquake catalogue

The aim of the present work is to compile and update a catalogue of the instrumentally recorded earthquakes in Egypt, with uniform and homogeneous source parameters as required for the analysis of seismicity and seismic hazard assessment. This in turn requires a detailed analysis and comparison of the properties of different available sources, including the distribution of events with time, the magnitude completeness, and the scaling relations between different kinds of magnitude reported by different agencies. The observational data cover the time interval 1900–2004 and an area between 22°–33.5° N and 25°–36° E. The linear regressions between various magnitude types have been evaluated for different magnitude ranges. Using the best linear relationship determined for each available pair of magnitudes, as well as those identified between the magnitudes and the seismic moment, we convert the different magnitude types into moment magnitudes M _W, through a multi-step conversion process. Analysis of the catalogue completeness, based on the M _W thus estimated, allows us to identify two different time intervals with homogeneous properties. The first one (1900–1984) appears to be complete for M _W ≥ 4.5, while the second one (1985–2004) can be considered complete for magnitudes M _W ≥ 3.     

1990年12月14日台湾强震的预报判据

本文运用福建省沿海气象要素的异常变化,作台湾省的中、短期地震预报,取得了成功的效果。采用长乐历年各月14时最低气压的距平值,作台湾省未来4～7个月内出现强震的预报依据,并采用热异常进行短临跟踪。当秋冬季节连续4d 长乐、福州、台北的气温均比广州累计高出10℃时,预报未来1～5d 台湾省出现7级强震。又根据近百年来台湾发生的强震,统计其活动季节,得到近20年来7级地震发生的时间,绝大部分在9～12月。     

汶川抗震救灾的基础地理信息综合应急服务

在5．12汶川特大地震抗震救灾中,国家测绘部门设计和组织实施了以数据成果服务、专用系统服务和专题制图服务为核心的基础地理信息综合应急服务。其是针对汶川震区地形特点和抗震救灾主体工作需求,快速整合和提供震区已有的基础测绘成果和最新遥感影像资料;快速搭建集震区海量数据集成管理为一体并具备3维影像浏览、对比分析等功能的专用地理信息系统,为灾情评估分析和重建规划研究提供地理空间数据集成展示和分析平台;应需地制作反映受灾范围、受灾程度、救灾响应、规划思路等的各类专题地图和地图集,有效地表达地震灾害的时空分布、重建规划布局等。