Progress in Earthquake Science and Technology in China: Review and Prospects (Ⅰ)

In the article the author looks back the hard development course and great progress in earth quake science and technology in China during the last near a half of century and expounds the following 3 aspects: (1) The strong desire of the whole society to mitigate seismic disasters and reduce the effect of earthquakes on social-economic live is a great driving force to push forward the development of earthquake science and technology in China; (2) To better ensure people‘ s life and property, sustainable economic development, and social stability is an essential purpose to drive the development of earthquake science and technology in China; and (3) To insist on the dialectical connection of setup of technical system for seismic monitoring with the scientific research of earthquakes and to better handle the relation between crucial task, current scientif ic level, and the feasibility are the important principles to advance the earthquake science and technology in China. Some success and many setbacks in earthquake disaster mitigation consistently enrich our knowledge regarding the complexity of the conditions for earthquake occurrence and the process of earthquake preparation, promote the reconstruction and modernization of technical system for earthquake monitoring, and deepen the scientific research of earthquakes. During the last 5 years, the improvement and modernization of technical system for earthquake monitoring have clearly provided the technical support to study and practice of earthquake prediction and pre caution, give prominence to key problems and broaden the field of scientific research of earth quakes. These have enabled us to get some new recognition of the conditions for earthquake oc currence and process of earthquake preparation, characteristics of seismic disaster, and mecha nism for earthquake generation in China‘s continent. The progress we have made not only en courages us to enhance the effectiveness of earthquake disaster mitigation, but also provides a basis for accelerating further development of earthquake science and technology in China in the new century, especially in the 10th five-year plan. Based on the history reviewed, the author sets forth a general requirement for develop ment of earthquake science and technology in China and brings out 10 aspects to be stressed and strengthened at present and in the future. These are: upgrade and setup of the network of digitized seismic observation; upgrade and setup of the network for observation of seismic pre cursors; setup of the network for observation of strong motion; setup of the laboratories for ex periment on seismic regime; establishment of technical system for seismic information, emer gency command and urgent rescue; research on short-term and imminent earthquake predic tion; research on intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction; research on attenuation of seismic ground motion, mechanism for seismic disaster, and control on seismic disaster; ba sic research fields related to seismology and geoscience. We expect that these efforts will signifi cantly elevate the level of earthquake science and technology in China to the advanced interna tional level, improve theories, techniques, and methods for earthquake precaution and predic tion, and enhance the effectiveness of earthquake disaster mitigation.     

Age estimates of coastal terraces in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and their tectonic implications

The great Indian Ocean earthquake of December 26, 2004 caused significant vertical changes in its rupture zone. About 800 km of the rupture is along the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, which forms the outer arc ridge of the subduction zone. Coseismic deformation along the exposed land could be observed as uplift/subsidence. Here we analyze the morphological features along the coast of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, in an effort to reconstruct the past tectonics, taking cues from the coseismic effects. We obtained radiocarbon dates from coastal terraces of the island belt and used them to compute uplift rates, which vary from 1.33 mm yr^− 1 in the Little Andaman to 2.80 mm yr^− 1 in South Andaman and 2.45 mm yr^− 1 in the North Andaman. Our radiocarbon dates converge on  600 yr and  1000 yr old coastal uplifts, which we attribute to the level changes due to two major previous subduction earthquakes in the region.     

Assessment of frozen-ground conditions for engineering geology along the Qinghai–Tibet highway and railway, China

The Qinghai–Tibet Highway and Railway (the Corridor) across the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau traverses 670 km of permafrost and seasonally frozen-ground in the interior of the Plateau, which is sensitive to climatic and anthropogenic environmental changes. The frozen-ground conditions for engineering geology along the Corridor is complicated by the variability in the near-surface lithology, and the mosaic presence of warm permafrost and talik in a periglacial environment. Differential settlement is the major frost-effect problem encountered over permafrost areas. The traditional classification of frozen ground based on the areal distribution of permafrost is too generalized for engineering purposes and a more refined classification is necessary for engineering design and construction. A proposed classification of 51 zones, sub-zones, and sections of frozen ground has been widely adopted for the design and construction of foundations in the portion of the Corridor studied. The mean annual ground temperature (MAGT), near-surface soil types and moisture content, and active faults and topography are most commonly the primary controlling factors in this classification. However, other factors, such as local microreliefs, drainage conditions, and snow and vegetation covers also exert important influences on the features of frozen ground. About 60% of the total length of the Corridor studied possesses reasonably good frozen-ground conditions, which do not need special mitigative measures for frost hazards. However, other sections, such as warm and ice-rich or -saturated permafrost, particularly in the sections in wetlands, ground improvement measures such as elevated land bridges and passive or proactive cooling techniques need to be applied to ensure the long-term stability of thermally unstable, thick permafrost subsoils, and/or refill with non-frost-susceptible soils. Due to the long-history of the construction and management of the Corridor by various government departments, adverse impacts of construction and operation on the permafrost environment have been resulted. It is recommended that an integrated, executable plan for the routing of major construction projects within this transportation corridor be established and long-term monitoring networks installed for evaluating and mitigating the impact from anthropogenic and climatic changes in frozen-ground conditions.     

1990年12月14日台湾强震的预报判据

本文运用福建省沿海气象要素的异常变化,作台湾省的中、短期地震预报,取得了成功的效果。采用长乐历年各月14时最低气压的距平值,作台湾省未来4～7个月内出现强震的预报依据,并采用热异常进行短临跟踪。当秋冬季节连续4d 长乐、福州、台北的气温均比广州累计高出10℃时,预报未来1～5d 台湾省出现7级强震。又根据近百年来台湾发生的强震,统计其活动季节,得到近20年来7级地震发生的时间,绝大部分在9～12月。     

台湾海峡隧道工程的若干工程地质问题与选线方案探讨

对台湾海峡的地质状况了进行了分析，作者认为，台湾海峡的工程地质条件复杂，地震、活动断裂、岩土体稳定性、海底底床活动性等是隧道工程将遇到的主要工程地质问题。隧道的线路选择应进行全面、深入的技术、经济比较。平潭至新竹和厦门经澎湖至嘉义海滨是两个可选的隧道线路方案。     

钢筋混凝土桩网复合地基沉降计算方法优选

钢筋混凝土桩网复合地基是一种新的地基处理技术。本文对适用于钢筋混凝土桩网复合地基沉降计算的方法进行探讨。     

“标贯”确定粘性土承载力标准值简易计算法

标准贯人（“标贯”）试验锤击数,要确定粘性土地基承载力标准值简易计算公式。将经杆长修正的标准贯人击数N进行统计分析,再把修正击数平均值带人相关方程,计算粘性土的承载力标准值fk,从而简化了计算过程。     

Changes in hydrogeological properties of the River Choushui alluvial fan aquifer due to the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, Taiwan

Changes in hydrogeological properties of the River Choushui alluvial fan aquifer before and after the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, Taiwan, have been identified using pumping tests. Three wells, SH2, YL2 and SC2, located in a compressional zone with high coseismic groundwater levels, were tested. The threshold of the aquifer deformation with respect to transmissivity (T) is greater than that with respect to storage coefficient (S). Decreases in the post-earthquake S are approximately 60% at SH2 and SC2, indicating aquifer compression after the Chi-Chi earthquake. Changes in the post-earthquake T range from 61% increase to 0.8% decrease. Moreover, results from anisotropy analysis of T at SC2 further illustrate that normal stresses induced by the Chi-Chi earthquake have consolidated soil particles. Soil particles dilated laterally after the earthquake, resulting in an increase of the equivalent T. The changes in hydrogeological properties have a considerable influence on spatiotemporal fluid pressure and horizontal groundwater movement, resulting in different amounts of drawdown during post-earthquake pumping.     

Quantitative basin characterisation to refine debris-flow triggering criteria and processes: an example from the Italian Western Alps

This paper investigates rapid channelized debris flow related to rainfalls in small alpine basins. Its goal is to evaluate and correlate different geological and technical aspects with predisposing and triggering factors that can control these phenomena. The study area is the upper part of the Susa Valley where 12 small basins were selected. For each of them, lithological, geomorphological, climatic and technical information were mapped and analysed. Debris-flow triggering conditions, flow and depositional processes were related to physical characteristics of the basin that can be easily measured and quantified. At least three different groups of basins were found: G1) basins with one event each 4–6 years, characterised by massive or blocky calcareous rocks, G2) basins with more than one event per year that show an abundance of layered or sheared fine-grained rocks and G3) basins with recurrence levels exceeding 10 years, activated only by heavy and prolonged rainfalls, marked by massive or blocky coarse-grained igneous rocks. Furthermore, important morphometric differences were found. These considerations are useful in terms of hazard zonation and risk mitigation.     

Rupture process of large earthquakes in the northern Mexico subduction zone

The Cocos plate subducts beneath North America at the Mexico trench. The northernmost segment of this trench, between the Orozco and Rivera fracture zones, has ruptured in a sequence of five large earthquakes from 1973 to 1985; the Jan. 30, 1973 Colima event (M _s 7.5) at the northern end of the segment near Rivera fracture zone; the Mar. 14, 1979 Petatlan event (M _s 7.6) at the southern end of the segment on the Orozco fracture zone; the Oct. 25, 1981 Playa Azul event (M _s 7.3) in the middle of the Michoacan gap; the Sept. 19, 1985 Michoacan mainshock (M _s 8.1); and the Sept. 21, 1985 Michoacan aftershock (M _s 7.6) that reruptured part of the Petatlan zone. Body wave inversion for the rupture process of these earthquakes finds the best: earthquake depth; focal mechanism; overall source time function; and seismic moment, for each earthquake. In addition, we have determined spatial concentrations of seismic moment release for the Colima earthquake, and the Michoacan mainshock and aftershock. These spatial concentrations of slip are interpreted as asperities; and the resultant asperity distribution for Mexico is compared to other subduction zones. The body wave inversion technique also determines theMoment Tensor Rate Functions; but there is no evidence for statistically significant changes in the moment tensor during rupture for any of the five earthquakes. An appendix describes theMoment Tensor Rate Functions methodology in detail.The systematic bias between global and regional determinations of epicentral locations in Mexico must be resolved to enable plotting of asperities with aftershocks and geographic features. We have spatially shifted all of our results to regional determinations of epicenters. The best point source depths for the five earthquakes are all above 30 km, consistent with the idea that the down-dip edge of the seismogenic plate interface in Mexico is shallow compared to other subduction zones. Consideration of uncertainties in the focal mechanisms allows us to state that all five earthquakes occurred on fault planes with the same strike (N65°W to N70°W) and dip (15±3°), except for the smaller Playa Azul event at the down-dip edge which has a steeper dip angle of 20 to 25°. However, the Petatlan earthquake does prefer a fault plane that is rotated to a more east-west orientation—one explanation may be that this earthquake is located near the crest of the subducting Orozco fracture zone. The slip vectors of all five earthquakes are similar and generally consistent with the NUVEL-predicted Cocos-North America convergence direction of N33°E for this segment. The most important deviation is the more northerly slip direction for the Petatlan earthquake. Also, the slip vectors from the Harvard CMT solutions for large and small events in this segment prefer an overall convergence direction of about N20°E to N25°E.All five earthquakes share a common feature in the rupture process: each earthquake has a small initial precursory arrival followed by a large pulse of moment release with a distinct onset. The delay time varies from 4 s for the Playa Azul event to 8 s for the Colima event. While there is some evidence of spatial concentration of moment release for each event, our overall asperity distribution for the northern Mexico segment consists of one clear asperity, in the epicentral region of the 1973 Colima earthquake, and then a scattering of diffuse and overlapping regions of high moment release for the remainder of the segment. This character is directly displayed in the overlapping of rupture zones between the 1979 Petatlan event and the 1985 Michoacan aftershock. This character of the asperity distribution is in contrast to the widely spaced distinct asperities in the northern Japan-Kuriles Islands subduction zone, but is somewhat similar to the asperity distributions found in the central Peru and Santa Cruz Islands subduction zones. Subduction of the Orozco fracture zone may strongly affect the seismogenic character as the overlapping rupture zones are located on the crest of the subducted fracture zone. There is also a distinct change in the physiography of the upper plate that coincides with the subducting fracture zone, and the Guerrero seismic gap to the south of the Petatlan earthquake is in the wake of the Orozco fracture zone. At the northern end, the Rivera fracture zone in the subducting plate and the Colima graben in the upper plate coincide with the northernmost extent of the Colima rupture zone.