自然和自然贡献情景模型研究综述

本文回顾了自然和自然贡献情景模型发展的背景、历史和内容,概括总结了自然和自然贡献情景模型的发展进程以及联合国生物多样性与生态系统服务政府间科学—政策平台(IPBES)情景模型的概念框架,讨论了自然和自然贡献情景模型存在的问题和发展方向。为了在全球层面解决现有综合集成模型存在的问题,根据地球表层建模基本定理和生态环境曲面建模基本定理,提出了具有中国原创特点的自然与自然贡献情景模型概念框架。     

农牧交错带典型区农业与牧业用地互动关系研究

利用1989年和2000年的两期Landsat-TM数据和相关的统计资料以及气候数据，应用转移距阵和多元回归分析等研究方法，对地处典型农牧交错带地区的兴和县土地利用变化进行研究，结果表明：农田和草地是研究区域中最主要的土地利用类型，Landsat-TM卫星影像数据和统计数据比较一致地反映农田和草地面积的变化；农田和草地的相互转换率在各种用地相互转化中非常剧烈；农业与牧业用地的互动特征具有明显的区域差异；农业和牧业用地的互动特点是自然因素和社会经济因素同时影响的结果。     

Landscape pattern and transition under natural and anthropogenic disturbance in an arid region of northwestern China

There is a pressing need to determine the relationships between driving variables and landscape transformations. Human activities shape landscapes and turn them into complex assemblages of highly diverse structures. Other factors, including climate and topography, also play significant roles in landscape transitions, and identifying the interactions among the variables is critical to environmental management. This study analyzed the configurations and spatial-temporal processes of landscape changes from 1998 to 2011 under different anthropogenic disturbances, identified the main variables that determine the landscape patterns and transitions, and quantified the relationships between pairs of driver sets. Landsat images of Baicheng and Tekes from 1998, 2006 and 2011 were used to classify landscapes by supervised classification. Redundancy analysis (RDA) and variation partitioning were performed to identify the main driving forces and to quantify the unique, shared, and total explained variation of the sets of variables. The results indicate that the proportions of otherwise identical landscapes in Baicheng and Tekes were very different. The area of the grassland in Tekes was much larger than that of the cropland; however, the differences between the grassland and cropland in Baicheng were not as pronounced. Much of the grassland in Tekes was located in an area that was near residents, whereas most of the grassland in Baicheng was far from residents. The slope, elevation, annual precipitation, annual temperature, and distance to the nearest resident were strong driving forces influencing the patterns and transitions of the landscapes. The results of the variation partitioning indicated complex interrelationships among all of the pairs of driver sets. All of the variable sets had significant explanatory roles, most of which had both unique and shared variations with the others. The results of this study can assist policy makers and planners in implementing sustainable landscape management and effective protection strategies.     

关于暴时电离层电流分布的南北半球不对称性

采用国际上广泛认可的高层大气和电离层经验模式提供的各种参数, 通过电离层电流连续方程, 计算出强磁暴条件下6月至日和12月至日内, 磁纬±72°和磁地方时00:00～24:00之间电离层电场、电流等的分布. 计算中考虑了地磁和地理坐标间的偏离; 除中性风场感生的发电机效应外, 还包含了磁层耦合(极盖区边界的晨昏电场和二区场向电流)的驱动外源. 结果表明, 6月至日时, 磁层扰动自极光区向中低纬的穿透情况在南、北半球内基本接近, 北半球内略强; 但12月至日时, 呈现明显的不对称性, 南半球的电流穿透远强于北半球, 而电场的穿透则是在北半球更强. 无论南北半球, 在中高纬地区, 午夜至黎明时段出现较强的东向电场分量, 其[WTHX]E×B[WTBZ]的向上漂移效应, 正是解释我们以往不少研究现象中所期盼的物理机制.     

基于3S的荣成湾沿岸土地覆被变化及驱动力研究

运用3S技术对最近40年来荣成湾沿岸土地覆被动态变化及驱动力进行研究.结果表明,该区海岸湿地土地覆被总面积和陆域土地覆被总面积变化不大,但其各自类型结构和分布均发生了显著调整,而且二者变化在时间上不同步.从面积上讲,前者以1981年为界,渴湖和沙地先减少后波动增加,滩涂和沼泽地先增加后波动减少;养殖池从无到有并迅速增加...     

郑州城市空间扩展特征及其驱动因素分析

以遥感与GIS为技术支撑,对郑州市1976-2004年城市建成区面积进行了动态监测,并对郑州28 a来城市空间扩展特征和驱动因素进行了分析。结果表明,郑州市建成区从1976-2004年面积增加了5.81倍,平均每年扩展10.75 km^2。其扩展占用的土地利用类型主要是耕地,其次为农村居民点和其他建设用地,还有一些林地、水库和沼泽地。社会经济因素是建成区扩展的内在推动力,经济发展、政策和规划等是建成区扩展的主要驱动力。通过郑州建成区遥感监测,了解城市空间扩展规律,对正确处理城市扩展与占用土地的关系具有重要意义。     

区域土地利用变化驱动力研究前景展望

区域土地利用变化驱动力研究旨在从典型区域角度揭示土地利用变化背后的真正动因及其作用机理,进而动态模拟、预测区域土地利用变化过程。土地利用系统的自组织性及其内驱动因子作用的复杂性,决定了其研究必须与某一特定区域相联系,以便确定合适的可定量指标来体现外生驱动因子的驱动效果。系统地识别土地利用系统在不同控制状态下的驱动因子及其多种时空尺度效应,建立具有综合模拟的区域土地利用变化动态模型,能减少土地利用系统通常受临界值域和突变所左右的局面。区域土地利用变化驱动因子识别、区域土地利用变化驱动机制分析、区域土地利用变化驱动过程模拟等的研究现状表明,为更好地理解区域土地利用变化的机制和原因,测度现有及未来土地利用变化的速率、过程和地点,支持政府相关决策的制定与实施,促使区域土地利用变化向有利于人类的方向发展,区域土地利用变化驱动力分析应优先考虑以下研究领域：①驱动力因子识别及其作用效应的尺度依赖性;②驱动力因子的贡献量化及其在具体区域的非均一分布;③驱动力因子作用过程的自然反馈机制模型化。 [HT5H]关〓键〓词：[HT5K]     

湖南省经济增长的动力机制与潜在问题分析

通过对湖南在改革开放20年以来所取得的经济增长成果的分析，探讨其经济波动性及其结构矛盾，对开放程度、使用外资额、企业固定资产投资额、工业效率、产业结构、人口规模等多方经济增长的动力机制，采用因子分析法等多种计量手段，分析湖南省经济增长的主要推动因素，揭示湖南省经济增长方式的特点和存在的问题，并提出了相应的对策。     

Monitoring directions and rates of change in trees outside forests through multitemporal analysis of map sequences

This study explores the potential of historical maps to detect, measure and monitor changes of trees outside forests. The main goal is to assess local-level changes of scattered trees and orchards and their land-use determinants in two areas in Southern Germany between 1901/1905 and 2009. Firstly, overall landscape changes are recorded. Secondly, the spatial-temporal trajectories of scattered trees and their land-use determinants are identified. Thirdly, changes in quantity and fragmentation patterns of traditional orchards are analyzed in their relationship to overall land-cover change. The results confirm major losses in scattered trees, mainly due to urbanization, agricultural intensification, and land abandonment. They further reveal that, while orchards have persisted in total area, they have undergone critical changes toward a simplified landscape structure and loss of the traditional land-use mosaic, which is a characterizing feature of high nature value landscapes. Multi-temporal assessment showed that most trends have been continuous and did not change directions over time, but rather accelerated during periods of rapid change (most dramatically in the 1950-1990 period). The case of orchards and scattered trees illustrates a major problem of cultural landscapes in Europe: Semi-natural landscape features of high nature value are threatened by both intensification and abandonment of land uses. This makes their conservation a potentially costly enterprise, as both opportunity costs for lost alternative land uses and for conservation management costs arise.     

An interdisciplinary approach to depict landscape change drivers: A case study of the Ticuiz agrarian community in Michoacan, Mexico

Landscape changes are driven by a combination of physical, ecological and socio-cultural factors. Hence, a large amount of information is necessary to monitor these changes and to develop effective strategies for management and conservation. For this, novel strategies for combining social and environmental data need to be developed. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the value of an innovative interdisciplinary approach to help in explaining landscape change. We integrated three main sources of information: biophysical landscape attributes, land-use/cover change analysis and social perceptions of land-use change, institutional and policy factors and environmental services. Multivariate statistical analysis was used to develop a weight for each variable described or quantified. Finally we identified proximate causes and underlying driving forces of land transformation in the study area. The study was undertaken in a typical community in Mexico.