Hydrological response of a Brazilian semi‐arid catchment to different land use and climate change scenarios: a modelling study

Brazilian semi‐arid regions are characterized by water scarcity, vulnerability to desertification, and climate variability. The investigation of hydrological processes in this region is of major interest not only for water planning strategies but also to address the possible impact of future climate and land‐use changes on water resources. A hydrological distributed catchment‐scale model (DiCaSM) has been applied to simulate hydrological processes in a small representative catchment of the Brazilian northeast semi‐arid region, and also to investigate the impact of climate and land‐use changes, as well as changes associated with biofuel/energy crops production. The catchment is part of the Brazilian network for semi‐arid hydrology, established by the Brazilian Federal Government. Estimating and modelling streamflow (STF) and recharge in semi‐arid areas is a challenging task, mainly because of limitation in in situ measurements, and also due to the local nature of some processes. Direct recharge measurements are very difficult in semi‐arid catchments and contain a high level of uncertainty. The latter is usually addressed by short‐ and long‐time‐scale calibration and validation at catchment scale, as well as by examining the model sensitivity to the physical parameters responsible for the recharge. The DiCaSM model was run from 2000 to 2008, and streamflow was successfully simulated, with a Nash–Sutcliffe (NS) efficiency coefficient of 0·73, and R² of 0·79. On the basis of a range of climate change scenarios for the region, the DiCaSM model forecasted a reduction by 35%, 68%, and 77%, in groundwater recharge (GWR), and by 34%, 65%, and 72%, in streamflow, for the time spans 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099, respectively, could take place for a dry future climate scenario. These reductions would produce severe impact on water availability in the region. Introducing castor beans to the catchment would increase the GWR and streamflow, mainly if the caatinga areas would be converted into castor beans production. Changing an area of 1000 ha from caatinga to castor beans would increase the GWR by 46% and streamflow by 3%. If the same area of pasture is converted into castor beans, there would be an increase in GWR and streamflow by 24% and 5%, respectively. Such results are expected to contribute towards environmental policies for north‐east Brazil (NEB), and to biofuel production perspectives in the region. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) at different temporal scales to reduce the uncertainty level in modelled river flows

ABSTRACT

In this study, the distributed catchment-scale model, DiCaSM, was applied on five catchments across the UK. Given its importance, river flow was selected to study the uncertainty in streamflow prediction using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology at different timescales (daily, monthly, seasonal and annual). The uncertainty analysis showed that the observed river flows were within the predicted bounds/envelope of 5% and 95% percentiles. These predicted river flow bounds contained most of the observed river flows, as expressed by the high containment ratio, CR. In addition to CR, other uncertainty indices – bandwidth B, relative bandwidth RB, degrees of asymmetry S and T, deviation amplitude D, relative deviation amplitude RD and the R factor – also indicated that the predicted river flows have acceptable uncertainty levels. The results show lower uncertainty in predicted river flows when increasing the timescale from daily to monthly to seasonal, with the lowest uncertainty associated with annual flows.     

Assessing the results of scenarios of climate and land use changes on the hydrology of an Italian catchment: modelling study

Hydrological models are recognized as valid scientific tools to study water quantity and quality and provide support for the integrated management and planning of water resources at different scales. In common with many catchments in the Mediterranean, the study catchment has many problems such as the increasing gap between water demand and supply, water quality deterioration, scarcity of available data, lack of measurements and specific information. The application of hydrological models to investigate hydrological processes in this type of catchments is of particular relevance for water planning strategies to address the possible impact of climate and land use changes on water resources. The distributed catchment scale model (DiCaSM) was selected to study the impact of climate and land use changes on the hydrological cycle and the water balance components in the Apulia region, southern Italy, specifically in the Candelaro catchment (1780 km²). The results obtained from this investigation proved the ability of DiCaSM to quantify the different components of the catchment water balance and to successfully simulate the stream flows. In addition, the model was run with the climate change scenarios for southern Italy, i.e. reduced winter rainfall by 5–10%, reduced summer rainfall by 15–20%, winter temperature rise by 1·25–1·5 °C and summer temperature rise by 1·5–1·75 °C. The results indicated that by 2050, groundwater recharge in the Candelaro catchment would decrease by 21–31% and stream flows by 16–23%. The model results also showed that the projected durum wheat yield up to 2050 is likely to decrease between 2·2% and 10·4% due to the future reduction in rainfall and increase in temperature. In the current study, the reliability of the DiCaSM was assessed when applied to the Candelaro catchment; those parameters that may cause uncertainty in model output were investigated using a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology. The results showed that DiCaSM provided a small level of uncertainty and subsequently, a higher confidence level. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

IHMS—Integrated Hydrological Modelling System. Part 1. Hydrological processes and general structure

A newly Integrated Hydrological Modelling System (IHMS) has been developed to study the impact of changes in climate, land use and water management on groundwater and seawater intrusion (SWI) into coastal areas. The system represents the combination of three models, which can, if required, be run separately. It has been designed to assess the combined impact of climate, land use and groundwater abstraction changes on river, drainage and groundwater flows, groundwater levels and, where appropriate, SWI. The approach is interdisciplinary and reflects an integrated water management approach. The system comprises three packages: the Distributed Catchment Scale Model (DiCaSM), MODFLOW (96 and 2000) and SWI models. In addition to estimating all water balance components, DiCaSM, produces the recharge data that are used as input to the groundwater flow model of the US Geological Survey, MODFLOW. The latter subsequently generates the head distribution and groundwater flows that are used as input to the SWI model, SWI. Thus, any changes in land use, rainfall, water management, abstraction, etc. at the surface are first handled by DiCaSM, then by MODFLOW and finally by the SWI. The three models operate at different spatial and temporal scales and a facility (interface utilities between models) to aggregate/disaggregate input/output data to meet a desired spatial and temporal scale was developed allowing smooth and easy communication between the three models. As MODFLOW and SWI are published and in the public domain, this article focuses on DiCaSM, the newly developed unsaturated zone DiCaSM and equally important the interfacing utilities between the three models. DiCaSM simulates a number of hydrological processes: rainfall interception, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, infiltration, soil water movement in the root zone, plant water uptake, crop growth, stream flow and groundwater recharge. Input requirements include distributed data sets of rainfall, land use, soil types and digital terrain; climate data input can be either distributed or non‐distributed. The model produces distributed and time series output of all water balance components including potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, rainfall interception, infiltration, plant water uptake, transpiration, soil water content, soil moisture (SM) deficit, groundwater recharge rate, stream flow and surface runoff. This article focuses on details of the hydrological processes and the various equations used in DiCaSM, as well as the nature of the interface to the MODFLOW and SWI models. Furthermore, the results of preliminary tests of DiCaSM are reported; these include tests related to the ability of the model to predict the SM content of surface and subsurface soil layers, as well as groundwater levels. The latter demonstrates how the groundwater recharge calculated from DiCaSM can be used as input into the groundwater model MODFLOW using aggregation and disaggregation algorithms (built into the interface utility). SWI has also been run successfully with hypothetical examples and was able to reproduce the results of some of the original examples of Bakker and Schaars ( 2005 ). In the subsequent articles, the results of applications to different catchments will be reported. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

IHMS—Integrated Hydrological Modelling System. Part 2. Application of linked unsaturated,DiCaSM and saturated zone,MODFLOW models on Kouris and Akrotiri catchments in Cyprus

The integrated hydrological modelling system, IHMS, has been described in detail in Part 1 of this paper. The system comprises three models: Distributed Catchment Scale Model (DiCaSM), MODFLOW (v96 and v2000) and SWI. The DiCaSM simulates different components of the unsaturated zone water balance, including groundwater recharge. The recharge output from DiCaSM is used as input to the saturated zone model MODFLOW, which subsequently calculates groundwater flows and head distributions. The main objectives of this paper are: (1) to show the way more accurate predictions of groundwater levels in two Cyprus catchments can be obtained using improved estimates of groundwater recharge from the catchment water balance, and (2) to demonstrate the interface utility that simulates communication between unsaturated and saturated zone models and allows the transmission of data between the two models at the required spatial and temporal scales. The linked models can be used to predict the impact of future climate change on surface and groundwater resources and to estimate the future water supply shortfall in the island up to 2050. The DiCaSM unsaturated zone model was successfully calibrated and validated against stream flows with reasonable values for goodness of fit as shown by the Nash‐Sutcliffe criterion. Groundwater recharge obtained from the successful tests was applied at various spatial and temporal scales to the Kouris and Akrotiri catchments in Cyprus. These recharge values produced good estimates of groundwater levels in both catchments. Once calibrated, the model was run using a number of possible future climate change scenarios. The results showed that by 2050, groundwater and surface water supplies would decrease by 35% and 24% for Kouris and 20% and 17% for Akrotiri, respectively. The gap between water supply and demand showed a linear increase with time. The results suggest that IHMS can be used as an effective tool for water authorities and decision makers to help balance demand and supply on the island. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.